Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Wednesday

Pitchers to stream on Wednesday

• Max Scherzer is slated to rejoin the Toronto Blue Jays' rotation after missing over three months with a right thumb issue. He's still not fully healed, but he's to the point he can manage the problem without a significant workload concern. Scherzer started two games on rehab, tossing 4 1/3 innings in each, though he struck out eight while yielding just one hit and no runs in his last outing. Scherzer is on the road against a pesky, but not especially potent Cleveland Guardians lineup, sporting the fifth lowest wOBA facing right-handers.

• Normally, streaming against the Arizona Diamondbacks is risky considering they boast the second highest wOBA with a righty on the hill. However, they'll be without two, and perhaps four of their better hitters when Sean Burke and the Chicago White Sox hook up in Rate Field. The guests will be without Corbin Carroll and Gabriel Moreno and may also be missing Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez. Burke's 4.50 ERA and 1.42 WHIP may seem worrisome, but he's registered six quality starts, three coming in his last five efforts and fanned 28 in his 28 most recent innings.

• Streaming recommendations are usually reserved for starters available in more than half of ESPN leagues, but considering the circumstances, Jacob Misiorowski and his 66% ESPN rostership deserves a mention. The Milwaukee Brewers host the Pittsburgh Pirates with Paul Skenes taking the hill. Hopefully, this is the first of many matchups between the NL Central young aces. Well, calling Misiorowski an ace is a bit premature, but he's headed in that direction. The 23-year-old righty yielded just one total hit in his first two starts, covering 11 innings. Control is an issue as his five walks shows, but Misiorowski fanned 11 and has the potential to be more dominant. On Wednesday, Misiorowski faces the offense with the second lowest wOBA versus right-handers.

ESPN BET "FIRST TAKE" FIRST INNING SUPER BOOST:
Jacob Misiorowski To Record 2+ Strikeouts In The 1st Inning: +160 

ESPN BET "GET UP" ODDS BOOST:
Paul Skenes & Jacob Misiorowski To Combine For 13+ Strikeouts: +120 

Pitchers to avoid on Wednesday

• Yusei Kikuchi has righted the ship, at least in terms of strikeouts with 19 over his previous two starts spanning 12 2/3 innings. However, he surrendered two homers and five earned runs, so he's a risk at home against the Boston Red Sox and their platoon-heavy lineup. The visitors tote the second best wOBA versus lefties into Angels Stadium.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

San Francisco Giants pitchers vs. Marlins hitters
Offense: B | Park: C | Umpire: C | Temperature: A | Wind: F | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.66 ERA in this matchup.

Detroit Tigers pitchers vs. Athletics hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.73 ERA in this matchup.

Milwaukee Brewers pitchers vs. Pirates hitters
Offense: C | Park: A | Umpire: C | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.83 ERA in this matchup.

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Colorado Rockies pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 6.97 ERA in this matchup.

Cincinnati Reds pitchers vs. Yankees hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.79 ERA in this matchup.

Los Angeles Dodgers pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: B | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.55 ERA in this matchup.

Hitters to stream on Wednesday

• Los Angeles Dodgers 3B Max Muncy and his 46% fly ball rate is ideal for Coors Field. The Colorado Rockies will send Chase Dollander to the hill in the NL West matchup. On another team, Dollander would have more appeal, but so far the talented rookie has struggled at home, serving up eight homers in just 20 1/3 home innings. Muncy is in a great spot to pad his home run total.

Today's best matchups for hitters

Los Angeles Dodgers LHB vs. Rockies pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: D | Park: A+ | Umpire: B | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .362 wOBA in this matchup.

New York Yankees LHB vs. Reds pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: B | Park: A | Umpire: C | Framing: B | Temperature: A | Wind: B | Away
The average hitter would post a .358 wOBA in this matchup.

Colorado Rockies RHB vs. Dodgers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: A+ | Umpire: B | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .354 wOBA in this matchup.

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Miami Marlins RHB vs. Giants pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: C | Umpire: C | Framing: F | Temperature: D | Wind: A | Away
The average hitter would post a .262 wOBA in this matchup.

Milwaukee Brewers RHB vs. Pirates pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: D | Park: F | Umpire: C | Framing: C | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .263 wOBA in this matchup.

Seattle Mariners RHB vs. Twins pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: D | Park: B | Umpire: C | Framing: D | Temperature: D | Wind: D | Away
The average hitter would post a .268 wOBA in this matchup.

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top HR prop bets

Gary Sanchez | OVER 0.5 HR (+900)
Projection: 17% chance of this bet hitting, with a $69.30 EV
One reason to bet this: Sanchez has recently seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs. Compare his 100.7-mph average over the past 14 days to his season-long average of 93.3 mph.

Adolis Garcia | OVER 0.5 HR (+500)
Projection: 22% chance of this bet hitting, with a $31.46 EV
One reason to bet this: In terms of his home runs, Garcia has had some very poor luck this year. His 18.8 HR/600 plate appearances rate has been deflated compared to my projected expected HR/600 of 25.1.

Wyatt Langford | OVER 0.5 HR (+475)
Projection: 23% chance of this bet hitting, with a $31.16 EV
One reason to bet this: The weather forecast expects the temperature in this matchup to reach the fourth-highest level (90 degrees) on today's slate, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Jack Flaherty | OVER 6.5 K (-115)
Projection: 65% chance of this bet hitting, with a $24.79 EV
One reason to bet this: Flaherty will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against six opposing hitters in today's game.

Jacob deGrom | UNDER 6.5 K (+115)
Projection: 55% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.26 EV
One reason to bet this: The weather forecast expects the temperature in this matchup to reach the fourth-highest level (90 degrees) on today's slate, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

Zac Gallen | UNDER 5.5 K (+105)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.82 EV
One reason to bet this: It is likely that we will see Derek Thomas -- a "hitter's umpire" -- in charge of the strike zone in today's game.

Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets

Dodgers @ Rockies | YRFI (-130)
Projection: 58% chance of RUN with a $3.75 EV

Blue Jays @ Guardians | NRFI (-120)
Projection: 55% chance of NO RUN with a $0.78 EV