Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Pitchers to stream on Friday
Take away a blow up on the road against the Los Angeles Dodgers and Will Warren sports a 3.89 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Of course, the poor outing can't be stricken from the record, but with the New York Yankees hosting the Athletics on Friday, an effort in line with the rest of Warren's season is more likely. He has quietly fanned 96 in 75 1/3 innings, though the 31 walks is a concern. However, Warren has only yielded six homers.
Half of Jose Soriano's outings were quality starts, including his previous three. Over that span, the Los Angeles Angels righty rang up 28 batters in 20 2/3 innings. Keeping up that pace will be challenging facing a Washington Nationals lineup with the fifth-lowest strikeout rate versus right-handers, but overall, their offense is below average with a very low walk rate. Soriano lines up for another solid performance at Angels Stadium.
Landen Roupp has posted five quality starts over his last seven efforts. The two subpar games were on the road versus the Dodgers and Detroit Tigers, a pair of potent offenses. On Friday, Roupp and the San Francisco Giants open an interleague series on the road against a Chicago White Sox team with the league's lowest wOBA facing right-handers.
Pitchers to avoid on Friday
Jose Berrios has recorded three quality starts over his past four games, but he fanned only 16 with eight walks in those 25 frames. On Friday, Berrios will take the hill at Fenway Park when the Toronto Blue Jays visit the Boston Red Sox. The home team is in a rut, but the Red Sox bats can snap out of their funk in an instant, especially returning home after a road trip. Berrios is best avoided in this AL East tussle.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
New York Yankees pitchers vs. Athletics hitters
Offense: B | Park: C | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: C+ | Wind: B | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.58 ERA in this matchup.
Milwaukee Brewers pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: B | Park: A | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D | Wind: F | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.80 ERA in this matchup.
Los Angeles Angels pitchers vs. Nationals hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: C | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.96 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Kansas City Royals pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: C | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D- | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.29 ERA in this matchup.
San Diego Padres pitchers vs. Reds hitters
Offense: C | Park: F | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.22 ERA in this matchup.
Philadelphia Phillies pitchers vs. Braves hitters
Offense: F | Park: C | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.18 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Friday
Since rejoining the Minnesota Twins after spending around six weeks with Triple-A St. Paul, David Festa has been unable to get in a groove. He registered a 10.00 ERA and 1.83 WHIP in four outings, striking out 17 with 10 walks and six homers allowed in 18 stanzas. Getting on track won't be easy with a Friday night road date facing the Tigers. Kerry Carpenter and Parker Meadows are in a great spot with the platoon edge on the struggling righty.
Today's best matchups for hitters
San Francisco Giants RHB vs. White Sox pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: B | Park: B | Framing: B | Temperature: A | Wind: A | Away
The average hitter would post a .351 wOBA in this matchup.
Kansas City Royals LHB vs. Dodgers pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Framing: B | Temperature: A | Wind: A | Home
The average hitter would post a .346 wOBA in this matchup.
Atlanta Braves LHB vs. Phillies pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: A | Park: C | Framing: B | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .346 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Texas Rangers RHB vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: F | Framing: F | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .273 wOBA in this matchup.
Athletics RHB vs. Yankees pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Framing: F | Temperature: C | Wind: D | Away
The average hitter would post a .281 wOBA in this matchup.
Chicago Cubs LHB vs. Astros pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .282 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Danny Jansen | OVER 0.5 HR (+700)
Projection: 16% chance of this bet hitting, with a $25.20 EV
One reason to bet this: Hitters (such as Jansen) with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Tomoyuki Sugano, who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
Yandy Diaz | OVER 0.5 HR (+550)
Projection: 18% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.90 EV
One reason to bet this: Posting a .347 expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric calculated by my projections based on Statcast data) this year, Diaz is ranked in the 82nd percentile for offensive ability.
Gary Sanchez | OVER 0.5 HR (+550)
Projection: 18% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.53 EV
One reason to bet this: Sanchez has made substantial strides with his Barrel% of late, improving his 12.8% season-long rate to 20% over the last week's worth of games.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Sonny Gray | UNDER 5.5 K (+120)
Projection: 52% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.83 EV
One reason to bet this: Gray's 91.2-mph fastball this season is a significant 1.1-mph fall off from last year's 92.3-mph figure.
Eury Perez | UNDER 4.5 K (-120)
Projection: 61% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.09 EV
One reason to bet this: Perez (41.3 GB% according to my projections) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game given the makeup of Arizona's projected offense.
Jose Berrios | UNDER 4.5 K (+125)
Projection: 49% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.34 EV
One reason to bet this: The Boston Red Sox have six bats in the projected lineup that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Berrios in this matchup.
Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets
Phillies @ Braves | YRFI (-130)
Projection: 58% chance of RUN with a $2.69 EV
Mets @ Pirates | YRFI (-110)
Projection: 53% chance of RUN with a $1.45 EV
Padres @ Reds | YRFI (-105)
Projection: 52% chance of RUN with a $1.91 EV
