Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Pitchers to stream on Saturday
Max Fried and Carlos Rodon are a combined 18-7 for the New York Yankees. Together, they're overshadowing Clarke Schmidt, who is 3-3 despite a sparkling 3.16 ERA in 11 starts. The Yankees host the Baltimore Orioles on Saturday, and even though the Orioles offense has been better of late, they still fan at an above average pace. Schmidt is on a roll, posting a 1.07 ERA and 0.87 WHIP over his last four games spanning 25 1/3 innings.
Grant Holmes struck out 24 batters in 11 2/3 innings over his last two starts, including 15 whiffs his last time out. He has walked five and surrendered three homers over that span, but the punchouts are impressive. On Saturday, Holmes faces the Miami Marlins, whose lack of patience and paucity of power feed Holmes' strength.
Two of Dustin May's last three outings have been quality starts, though he only fanned nine while walking 10 in that span. Even so, May is in a great spot when the Los Angeles Dodgers host the Washington Nationals. Through Thursday's action, the Nationals are averaging just 2.71 runs per game in June.
Pitchers to avoid on Saturday
With weather and the Colorado Rockies heating up, starting the opposing pitchers in Coors Field is again risky. Merrill Kelly has been a mixed bag over his last six efforts. In his three quality starts during that stretch, the righty surrendered no runs over 19 combined frames, but in the other three outings he yielded 12 earned runs in 16 stanzas. Kelly's inconsistency is best avoided on Saturday.
Saturday's best matchups for pitchers
San Francisco Giants pitchers vs. Red Sox hitters
Offense: B | Park: C | Umpire: B | Temperature: B+ | Wind: F | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.87 ERA in this matchup.
Los Angeles Angels pitchers vs. Astros hitters
Offense: C | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: B- | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 4.09 ERA in this matchup.
Atlanta Braves pitchers vs. Marlins hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: C+ | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.13 ERA in this matchup.
Saturday's worst matchups for pitchers
Seattle Mariners pitchers vs. Cubs hitters
Offense: F | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: F | Away
The average pitcher would post a 6.71 ERA in this matchup.
Arizona Diamondbacks pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: B | Park: F | Umpire: A | Temperature: F | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 6.08 ERA in this matchup.
Washington Nationals pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: F | Temperature: B | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.94 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Saturday
Aside from the hitters in the Rockies-Arizona Diamondbacks game at Coors Field, the Chicago Cubs are in a good spot at home for their interleague date with Emerson Hancock and the Seattle Mariners. Dansby Swanson, Michael Busch and Matt Shaw are among the best options available in at least half of ESPN leagues.
Saturday's best matchups for hitters
Chicago Cubs LHB vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: C | Park: D | Umpire: C | Framing: F | Temperature: A | Wind: A+ | Home
The average hitter would post a .393 wOBA in this matchup.
Colorado Rockies LHB vs. Diamondbacks pitchers
The average hitter would post a .389 wOBA in this matchup.
Arizona Diamondbacks RHB vs. Rockies pitchers
The average hitter would post a .389 wOBA in this matchup.
Saturday's worst matchups for hitters
Los Angeles Angels LHB vs. Astros pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: D | Park: D | Umpire: D | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .277 wOBA in this matchup.
Kansas City Royals RHB vs. Padres pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: C | Umpire: A | Framing: B | Temperature: D | Wind: A | Away
The average hitter would post a .283 wOBA in this matchup.
Boston Red Sox RHB vs. Giants pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: F | Park: C | Umpire: D | Framing: F | Temperature: D | Wind: A | Away
The average hitter would post a .285 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Saturday's top home run prop bets
Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+375)
Projection: 29% chance of this bet hitting, with a $37.13 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 13.8-mph in this game, the second-best of the day for hitters.
Michael Taylor | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 14% chance of this bet hitting, with a $26.00 EV
One reason to bet this: Taylor has made significant strides with his Barrel percentage in recent games, improving his 12.2% season rate to 20% over the past few weeks.
Julio Rodriguez | OVER 0.5 HR (+300)
Projection: 31% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.72 EV
One reason to bet this: Rodriguez has improved at hitting the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23 degrees and 34 degrees), increasing from 16.1% on the season to 22.2% over the past few weeks.
Saturday's top pitcher prop bets
Brandon Walter | UNDER 4.5 K (-105)
Projection: 61% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.97 EV
One reason to bet this: Given that groundball hitters hold a notable advantage over flyball pitchers, Brandon Walter and his 48.7% underlying GB% will be in a tough spot going up against two opposing GB bats.
Mick Abel | UNDER 4.5 K (-140)
Projection: 66% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.53 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 8.1-mph in this game, the seventh-strongest of the day for batters.
Aaron Civale | UNDER 3.5 K (-110)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.36 EV
One reason to bet this: Civale has had some very good luck with his strikeouts since the start of last season, notching an 8.24 K/9 despite his true talent level estimated to be 7.63 -- a 0.61 K/9 discrepancy.
Today's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets
Nationals @ Dodgers | YRFI (-120)
Projection: 58% chance of RUN with a $8.46 EV
Guardians @ Athletics | NRFI (+105)
Projection: 52% chance of NO RUN with a $5.74 EV
Mets @ Phillies | YRFI (-130)
Projection: 60% chance of RUN with a $7.43 EV
