Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Pitchers to stream on Friday
Hayden Birdsong takes the hill for the San Francisco Giants when Rafael Devers faces his former team. The Boston Red Sox are on a roll, winning seven of their past eight, but it's due to pitching as they're averaging just 2.5 runs per game in that span. Birdsong is coming off a quality start in Coors Field, limiting the Colorado Rockies to three runs in six frames, fanning six with just two walks.
It's strange to group future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw with the streamers, but unless he channels his old self and goes on a patented run, his rostership will remain below 50% in ESPN leagues. He's in a great spot to build momentum at home against the Washington Nationals, who had an 11-game losing streak entering Thursday's action.
Pitchers to avoid on Friday
Using opposing pitchers in Coors Field isn't taboo this season, but the way Zac Gallen has performed lately, the Arizona Diamondbacks' starter is too risky. It's not just that Gallen is sporting a 10.7% walk rate, his highest since his rookie season, but the Rockies offense has come alive this month. The club averaged 3.1 runs per game through May, but they are tallying 4.5 runs per game in June.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
San Diego Padres pitchers vs. Royals hitters
Offense: C | Park: B | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: B+ | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.89 ERA in this matchup.
San Francisco Giants pitchers vs. Red Sox hitters
Offense: B | Park: C | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: A | Wind: F | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.93 ERA in this matchup.
Athletics pitchers vs. Guardians hitters
Offense: A | Park: D | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D+ | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 4.02 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Colorado Rockies pitchers vs. Diamondbacks hitters
Offense: D | Park: F | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: F | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 6.27 ERA in this matchup.
Arizona Diamondbacks pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: A | Park: F | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: F | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.96 ERA in this matchup.
Seattle Mariners pitchers vs. Cubs hitters
Offense: D | Park: A | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: C- | Wind: F | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.54 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Friday
Mike Burrows is coming off the best game of his young career, yielding just one run in 5 1/3 innings to the Cubs, punching out eight with no walks. Even so, the 25-year-old Pittsburgh Pirates righty isn't established and recorded a 5.00 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in the four outings before stifling the Cubs. Burrows takes on the Texas Rangers on Friday.
If you're shut out of getting a piece of the Rockies-Diamondbacks game in Denver, Miami is an intriguing alternative. The highest rostered player is C Agustin Ramirez, and he's available in almost 80% of ESPN leagues. Jesus Sanchez and Kyle Stowers also enjoy the platoon edge, and bat in prominent spots of the Marlins lineup, as the Marlins host the Atlanta Braves.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Arizona Diamondbacks batters vs. Rockies pitchers
The average hitter would post a .383 wOBA in this matchup.
Colorado Rockies batters vs. Diamondbacks pitchers
The average hitter would post a .382 wOBA in this matchup.
St. Louis Cardinals LHB vs. Reds pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: A | Park: C | Framing: F | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .347 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
New York Mets RHB vs. Phillies pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Framing: B | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .275 wOBA in this matchup.
Milwaukee Brewers RHB vs. Twins pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: D | Park: B | Framing: D | Temperature: B | Wind: D | Away
The average hitter would post a .281 wOBA in this matchup.
Baltimore Orioles RHB vs. Yankees pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: C | Framing: F | Temperature: B | Wind: A | Away
The average hitter would post a .281 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+425)
Projection: 24% chance of this bet hitting, with a $23.48 EV
One reason to bet this: Guerrero hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% -- 83rd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLBs 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.
Mickey Moniak | OVER 0.5 HR (+525)
Projection: 18% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.44 EV
One reason to bet this: Moniak's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this season (16.6 degrees) is significantly higher than his 13.6 degrees mark from last year.
Austin Hedges | OVER 0.5 HR (+1000)
Projection: 10% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.84 EV
One reason to bet this: Hedges' 24.1 degrees launch angle (a reliable stat to assess a hitters ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the steepest in MLB: 97th percentile.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Matthew Boyd | UNDER 5.5 K (+115)
Projection: 55% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.90 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 15 mph in this contest, the second-most-favorable of the day for batters.
Mike Burrows | UNDER 4.5 K (-100)
Projection: 57% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.80 EV
One reason to bet this: My projection system profiles PNC Park as the eighth-worst venue in the league for strikeouts.
Hunter Brown | UNDER 6.5 K (+115)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.19 EV
One reason to bet this: With a 0.67 difference between Brown's 10.99 K/9 and his 10.32 estimated true talent K/9 (via my projections), he's been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball in terms of strikeouts. He ought to perform worse the rest of the season.
Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets
Reds @ Cardinals | NRFI (-105)
Projection: 54% chance of NO RUN with a $5.78 EV
D-Backs @ Rockies | YRFI (-165)
Projection: 63% chance of RUN with a $2.35 EV
Nationals @ Dodgers | YRFI (-100)
Projection: 50% chance of RUN with a $0.70 EV
