Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Pitchers to stream on Thursday
Erick Fedde is the prototypical example of a points-league pitcher; he's not dominant, but he's capable of going deep into games. Thursday presents a great opportunity for the righty to pile up innings points when the St. Louis Cardinals visit the Chicago White Sox. Fedde faces the lineup sporting the worst wOBA in MLB against right-handers.
It appeared Father Time had finally caught up to Charlie Morton, but after the Baltimore Orioles banished him to the bullpen, the salty veteran experienced a renaissance as a starter, posting a 2.63 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over his last six outings, fanning 37 over those 27 1/3 frames. Keeping the momentum will be a challenge against the Tampa Bay Rays on the road. The Rays have won 19 of their last 26 games to move into second place in the AL East, just 2 1/2 games behind the New York Yankees entering Wednesday's action. Even so, Morton's recent run, fueled by a 31.1% strikeout rate, warrants streaming attention.
As you may have heard, the San Francisco Giants recently made a move to address their lack of left-handed power, but they're still vulnerable to right-handed pitching. Gavin Williams and the Cleveland Guardians visit the Giants for an interleague affair Thursday. Williams remains inconsistent, especially with his control, but he's starting to show signs of finally taking the next step. Over his prior seven outings spanning 37 1/3 stanzas, Williams has recorded a 2.89 ERA and 1.23 WHIP with 35 strikeouts.
Pitchers to avoid on Thursday
With Kodai Senga and Tylor Megill on the IL and Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas still sidelined (though not for much longer), the New York Mets need Grant Holmes to continue providing solid work in his first season not only with the club, but also as a full-time starting pitcher. His 2.87 ERA suggests the transition has gone swimmingly, but the corresponding ERA estimators are at least one run higher, so regression is probably coming. That said, a correction close to the expected ERA levels land Holmes as a slightly better than average pitcher. Thursday presents a big test with the Mets visiting the Atlanta Braves. Fueled by a pedestrian 16.3% strikeout rate over his last 52 2/3 innings while yielding nine homers in that span, Holmes lands in the avoid range in our Thursday pitching rankings.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Detroit Tigers pitchers vs. Pirates hitters (Game 2)
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: B | Wind: F | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.14 ERA in this matchup.
Detroit Tigers pitchers vs. Pirates hitters (Game 1)
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: C+ | Wind: F | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.39 ERA in this matchup.
Philadelphia Phillies pitchers vs. Marlins hitters
Offense: A | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: C+ | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.81 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
San Diego Padres pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: C- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 6.00 ERA in this matchup.
Los Angeles Angels pitchers vs. Yankees hitters
Offense: F | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.46 ERA in this matchup.
New York Mets pitchers vs. Braves hitters
Offense: F | Park: C | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.00 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Thursday
Jacob Lopez has been a mixed back lately. He has fanned 31 in 23 innings over his last five efforts but with a 5.09 ERA, as he's been burned by six long balls in that span. The southpaw squares off with the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre on Thursday. Lopez faces a lineup with the third-lowest strikeout rate against left-handers. The Blue Jays generally stack their lineup with righty swingers when a lefty is on the hill, with Alejandro Kirk, George Springer, Ernie Clement and Davis Schneider the top streaming options.
Today's best matchups for hitters
New York Yankees LHB vs. Angels pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: A+ | Park: C | Umpire: D | Framing: C | Temperature: A | Wind: A | Home
The average hitter would post a .360 wOBA in this matchup.
Colorado Rockies LHB vs. Nationals pitchers
SP: A+ | Bullpen: C | Park: D | Umpire: C | Framing: B | Temperature: A | Wind: A | Away
The average hitter would post a .353 wOBA in this matchup.
Athletics RHB vs. Astros pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: D | Park: B | Umpire: D | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: A | Home
The average hitter would post a .347 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Pittsburgh Pirates batters vs. Tigers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: D | Framing: D | Temperature: D | Wind: A+ | Away
The average hitter would post a .267 wOBA in this matchup.
Cleveland Guardians RHB vs. Giants pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: C | Umpire: D | Framing: F | Temperature: D | Wind: A+ | Away
The average hitter would post a .266 wOBA in this matchup.
Detroit Tigers RHB vs. Pirates pitchers (Game 2)
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: D | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: A | Home
The average hitter would post a .276 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Because odds typically do not get set until the previous day's games are completed, betting tips will be added in the morning.
Today's top home run prop bets
Jazz Chisholm jr. | OVER 0.5 HR (+475)
Projection: 23% chance of this bet hitting, with a $31.62 EV
One reason to bet this: Chisholm's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23 degrees and 34 degrees) has improved from last season to this one.
Oneil Cruz | OVER 0.5 HR (+900)
Projection: 12% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.00 EV
One reason to bet this: Oneil Cruz has had bad luck when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .340 mark is deflated compared to his .359 Expected wOBA, based on my projections' interpretation of Statcast data.
Jo Adell | OVER 0.5 HR (+475)
Projection: 20% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.15 EV
One reason to bet this: Adell has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 14.3% seasonal rate to 20.6% over the past 14 days.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Carlos Rodon | UNDER 6.5 K (+115)
Projection: 55% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.88 EV
One reason to bet this: The Los Angeles Angels have eight bats in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage over Rodon in todays game.
Carlos Rodon | OVER 2.5 ER (+120)
Projection: 51% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.47 EV
One reason to bet this: The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level on the slate today at 90 degrees, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
Ryan Bergert | UNDER 3.5 K (-125)
Projection: 62% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.60 EV
One reason to bet this: According to my projections, Martin Maldonado (San Diego's expected catcher today) profiles as a weak pitch framer.
Today's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets
Angels @ Yankees | YRFI (-125)
Projection: 57% chance of RUN with a $2.76 EV
Padres @ Dodgers | YRFI (-125)
Projection: 56% chance of RUN with a $0.78 EV
Phillies @ Marlins | NRFI (-135)
Projection: 58% chance of NO RUN with a $0.83 EV
