Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Pitchers to stream on Monday
It appears the Cleveland Guardians' pitching laboratory has struck again with Luis Ortiz being their latest successful transformation. To be fair, Ortiz showed positive signs with the Pittsburgh Pirates last season, and he's still a work in progress as demonstrated by a 1.40 WHIP this season, fueled by a high 11.8% walk rate. However, over his past five efforts, Ortiz posted a 2.28 ERA and 1.37 WHIP with 31 punchouts in 27 2/3 innings, albeit with 14 free passes. He begins the week with a home matchup against the Cincinnati Reds. The fellow Buckeye Stats denizens sport an offense with a below-average walk rate facing righties, along with an above-average strikeout rate.
Dustin May appears poised to go on a roll. He's administering too many homers, but the rest of his game is falling into place, helping stabilize the Los Angeles Dodgers' injury-riddled rotation. Over his previous five outings, the righty sports a 3.77 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, with the encouraging sign being 35 strikeouts with only eight free passes in those 28 2/3 frames. Monday presents a challenge with a road date against the San Diego Padres, but the hosts' home run rate is the eighth lowest in MLB against right-handers.
In more of a gut call than by the numbers, Mike Burrows is a deep league option with the Pittsburgh Pirates hosting the Miami Marlins. Burrows' minor league track record isn't especially impressive, and he struggled in his first two starts after being called up in late May. However, he tossed a gem last time against the Houston Astros, fanning six with no walks in 5 1/3 innings. The Marlins sport the eighth-worst wOBA with a right on the hill.
Pitchers to avoid on Monday
His rostership is dropping, but Yusei Kikuchi remains rostered in more than half of ESPN leagues. Over his past four starts, the Los Angeles Angels lefty has a palatable 20 strikeouts in 21 1/3 frames, but he's walked an unacceptable 18 in that stretch. On Monday, the Athletics visit Anaheim, bringing the 12th-most patient offense facing lefties, along with the eighth highest home run rate against southpaws. Those still holding out hope that Kikuchi will recapture what made him successful in Houston last season should cut bait.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Los Angeles Angels pitchers vs. Athletics hitters
Offense: A | Park: B | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: B- | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.56 ERA in this matchup.
Atlanta Braves pitchers vs. Brewers hitters
Offense: C | Park: A | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: B+ | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.15 ERA in this matchup.
Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers vs. Marlins hitters
Offense: B | Park: D | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: B- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 4.16 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Seattle Mariners pitchers vs. Diamondbacks hitters
Offense: D | Park: F | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D+ | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.77 ERA in this matchup.
Philadelphia Phillies pitchers vs. Cubs hitters
Offense: F | Park: C | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: C+ | Wind: B | Home
The average pitcher would post a 4.74 ERA in this matchup.
San Diego Padres pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: B | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: B+ | Wind: B | Home
The average pitcher would post a 4.65 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Monday
In need of a replacement for Hunter Greene, the Reds re-signed Wade Miley, after he opted out of his minor league contract. The veteran lefty posted a bloated 5.93 ERA and 1.74 WHIP for Triple-A Louisville. He'll face the Guardians in Progressive Field. Right-handers David Fry and Johnathan Rodriguez along with the switch-hitting Carlos Santana and Angel Martinez are set up for a big evening.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Cleveland Guardians batters vs. Reds pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .348 wOBA in this matchup.
Arizona Diamondbacks LHB vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: C | Park: B | Framing: F | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .340 wOBA in this matchup.
Tampa Bay Rays LHB vs. Red Sox pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: D | Park: A | Framing: D | Temperature: D | Wind: D | Away
The average hitter would post a .330 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Milwaukee Brewers LHB vs. Braves pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Framing: C | Temperature: D | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .251 wOBA in this matchup.
Chicago Cubs RHB vs. Phillies pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: D | Away
The average hitter would post a .266 wOBA in this matchup.
Los Angeles Dodgers LHB vs. Padres pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: D | Framing: C | Temperature: D | Wind: D | Away
The average hitter would post a .275 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top home run prop bets
Ketel Marte | OVER 0.5 HR (+525)
Projection: 18% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.75 EV
One reason to bet this: Over the past seven days, Marte's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 15.7% up to 25%.
Leody Taveras | OVER 0.5 HR (+1100)
Projection: 9% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.48 EV
One reason to bet this: Taveras has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.1 mph to 91.8 mph in the past seven days.
Marcell Ozuna | OVER 0.5 HR (+450)
Projection: 19% chance of this bet hitting, with a $6.87 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.8 mph in this matchup, the second-best of the day for bats.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Yusei Kikuchi | OVER 5.5 K (-135)
Projection: 64% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.30 EV
One reason to bet this: In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts the sixth-best hitting conditions of the day.
Jose Berrios | UNDER 4.5 K (-155)
Projection: 67% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.85 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 10.6 mph in this contest, the most favorable of the day for hitters.
Nick Pivetta | OVER 5.5 K (-125)
Projection: 61% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.71 EV
One reason to bet this: Pivetta (39.2 GB% via my projections) is well-situated in this matchup given the makeup of the opposition's projected offense.
