Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Pitchers to stream on Tuesday
New York Mets RHP Tylor Megill has fallen short of five frames in his past three starts, but that streak should end with a favorable home matchup with the Chicago White Sox. Last time out, Megill completed only 4 2/3 frames, but he fanned 10 while walking just one facing the Boston Red Sox. For the season, Megill has rung up an impressive 86 hitters in 48 innings while allowing just three homers. His pitfall has been 23 walks, but the White Sox accept free passes at a below league average rate.
Chicago Cubs rookie RHP Cade Horton should garner a few more starts filling in for LHP Shota Imanaga. While Horton has won two of his first three outings, he punched out only 10 in 14 1/3 innings. On Tuesday, the freshman is in a great spot to pad his strikeouts with a home date against the Colorado Rockies, who strike out more than every MLB squad.
The San Diego Padres received a double dose of bad news to begin the week with RHP Michael King hitting the IL with shoulder inflammation and RHP Yu Darvish still reluctant to throw in game conditions. The good news is RHP Stephen Kolek has stepped up this month, posting a 2.84 ERA over four starts. Up next is a favorable home affair with the Miami Marlins. The visitors aren't pushovers, but they're still below average offensively with an above average strikeout rate.
Pitchers to avoid on Tuesday
Those eagerly awaiting the return of vintage Spencer Strider are advised to exhibit more patience while the right-hander continues to ramp up following his recovery from a hamstring issue experienced after his mid-April debut. Strider's velocity was down, and he was hit hard last week after over a month on the shelf. It doesn't get easier with a road affair against the Philadelphia Phillies. Spencer faces the lineup averaging the sixth most runs in the league while fanning at the ninth lowest clip.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Chicago Cubs pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: A | Park: B | Umpire: B | Temperature: A | Wind: A+ | Home
The average pitcher would post a 2.84 ERA in this matchup.
Seattle Mariners pitchers vs. Nationals hitters
Offense: B | Park: A | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: B- | Wind: B | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.56 ERA in this matchup.
San Diego Padres pitchers vs. Marlins hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: A | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.62 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers vs. Diamondbacks hitters
Offense: D | Park: D | Umpire: C | Temperature: D+ | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.04 ERA in this matchup.
Cleveland Guardians pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: C | Umpire: C | Temperature: B+ | Wind: F | Home
The average pitcher would post a 4.98 ERA in this matchup.
Atlanta Braves pitchers vs. Phillies hitters
Offense: F | Park: C | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: B | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.85 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Tuesday
The New York Yankees are one of the highest scoring teams in the league yet there are only a couple of batters universally rostered in ESPN leagues: Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger. Their right-handed contingent are Tuesday's targets with a road contest in Anaheim against Los Angeles Angels LHP Tyler Anderson. Paul Goldschmidt is available in 22% of ESPN leagues, while Anthony Volpe and Jasson Dominguez are available in more than half.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Arizona Diamondbacks RHB vs. Pirates pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: A | Park: B | Umpire: D | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .343 wOBA in this matchup.
Kansas City Royals LHB vs. Reds pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Umpire: F | Framing: F | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .334 wOBA in this matchup.
Cleveland Guardians LHB vs. Dodgers pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Umpire: C | Framing: B | Temperature: D | Wind: A | Home
The average hitter would post a .327 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Detroit Tigers RHB vs. Giants pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: D | Umpire: C | Framing: F | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .259 wOBA in this matchup.
Colorado Rockies RHB vs. Cubs pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: B | Park: D | Umpire: D | Framing: C | Temperature: D | Wind: F | Away
The average hitter would post a .269 wOBA in this matchup.
Chicago Cubs RHB vs. Rockies pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: C | Park: D | Umpire: D | Framing: A | Temperature: D | Wind: F | Home
The average hitter would post a .277 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top home run prop bets
Trent Grisham | OVER 0.5 HR (+375)
Projection: 24% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.81 EV
One reason to bet this: Angel Stadium has the third-shortest fences in the majors.
Ivan Herrera | OVER 0.5 HR (+700)
Projection: 14% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.96 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to left field at 8.1 mph in this game, the fourth-most favorable of the day for batters.
Brent Rooker | OVER 0.5 HR (+475)
Projection: 19% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.68 EV
One reason to bet this: Extreme flyball batters like Rooker generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Hunter Brown.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Dustin May | UNDER 4.5 K (-100)
Projection: 60% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.08 EV
One reason to bet this: The Guardians have seven hitters in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage over May in this matchup, which is especially precarious given his huge platoon split.
Daniel Lynch | OVER 1.5 K (-115)
Projection: 62% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.26 EV
One reason to bet this: According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the third-most favorable for pitching on the slate today.
Max Meyer | UNDER 4.5 K (-115)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.43 EV
One reason to bet this: This game is expected to have the most humidity on the slate (80%); there is a small but significant connection with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid.
Today's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets
Rockies @ Cubs | NRFI (-130)
Projection: 58% chance of NO RUN with a $2.39 EV
Rockies @ Cubs | NRFI (-130)
Projection: 57% chance of NO RUN with a $1.97 EV
Rockies @ Cubs | NRFI (-135)
Projection: 58% chance of NO RUN with a $0.22 EV
