Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Pitchers to stream on Monday
Seven of Pittsburgh Pirates RHP Mitch Keller's outings have been quality starts. He doesn't rack up an excess of strikeouts, but Keller generally gives the club innings and keeps them in the game. Next up is a home date with the Cincinnati Reds. Reds batters fan at an above average clip and will experience a park downgrade.
Chicago Cubs RHP Ben Brown has allowed a lot of traffic on the bases as evidenced by a 1.56 WHIP, but allowing just four homers in 41 2/3 innings has somewhat salvaged a still bloated 1.56 ERA. That said, the 25-year-old righty sports an impressive 26.2% strikeout rate and has been victimized via a .381 BABIP that's sure to regress. Brown is slated to take the hill in South Beach to face the Miami Marlins and their above average strikeout rate fueling a below average offense.
Eight of the nine homers Tampa Bay Rays RHP Ryan Pepiot surrendered have come at home. However, he's fanned 34 batters in 34 frames at George Steinbrenner Field. Pepiot lines up for another home start, but he'll be facing a Houston Astros lineup with the fifth lowest home run rate with a righty on the hill.
Pitchers to avoid on Monday
New York Mets RHP Kodai Senga has authored just one home run over 44 1/3 innings this season, helping to suppress his 1.22 ERA well under his 4.23 xFIP and 4.19 SIERA. Regression is impending and while true regression is independent of the upon, Senga's road date with the Boston Red Sox is a risky matchup. Perhaps if it were later in the week, using Senga for strikeout upside would be in play, but there is no reason to dig an early hole.
Using an opposing pitcher in Coors Field is no longer taboo, but the Colorado Rockies' offense is showing signs of breaking out of its doldrums, especially facing left-handed pitching. Philadelphia Phillies LHP Cristopher Sanchez sports strikeout upside, but he's also issued nine free passes over his last 17 frames, so it makes sense to avoid him for his risky road affair with the Rockies.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Cleveland Guardians pitchers vs. Twins hitters
Offense: A | Park: D | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: A | Wind: B | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.72 ERA in this matchup.
Seattle Mariners pitchers vs. White Sox hitters
Offense: B | Park: D | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: A+ | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.96 ERA in this matchup.
St. Louis Cardinals pitchers vs. Tigers hitters
Offense: C | Park: B | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: C- | Wind: A | Home
The average pitcher would post a 4.09 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Arizona Diamondbacks pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: C- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.63 ERA in this matchup.
Colorado Rockies pitchers vs. Phillies hitters
Offense: D | Park: F | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: A | Wind: B | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.46 ERA in this matchup.
Philadelphia Phillies pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: A | Park: F | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: A | Wind: B | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.95 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Monday
The Chicago Cubs are a challenging matchup for most pitchers this season. Their fifth highest walk rate in conjunction with the league's eighth best strikeout rate is a perfect scenario to face Miami Marlins RHP Edward Cabrera. SS Dansby Swanson, 1B Michael Busch and C Moises Ballesteros are the optimal targets.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Colorado Rockies RHB vs. Phillies pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: B | Park: A+ | Framing: B | Temperature: D | Wind: D | Home
The average hitter would post a .350 wOBA in this matchup.
Philadelphia Phillies RHB vs. Rockies pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: D | Park: A+ | Framing: C | Temperature: D | Wind: D | Away
The average hitter would post a .348 wOBA in this matchup.
Tampa Bay Rays RHB vs. Astros pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: D | Park: D | Framing: B | Temperature: A | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .345 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Cleveland Guardians RHB vs. Twins pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: F | Park: B | Framing: B | Temperature: D | Wind: D | Away
The average hitter would post a .285 wOBA in this matchup.
Chicago White Sox RHB vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: B | Framing: F | Temperature: F | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .287 wOBA in this matchup.
Baltimore Orioles RHB vs. Brewers pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .290 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Nick Kurtz | OVER 0.5 HR (+1100)
Projection: 10% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.88 EV
One reason to bet this: Over the last week, Kurtz's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.1 mph over the course of the season to 95.2 mph.
Will Smith | OVER 0.5 HR (+500)
Projection: 19% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.90 EV
One reason to bet this: Smith's launch angle this year (22.4 degrees) is quite a bit better than his 18.5 degrees angle last year.
Shea Langeliers | OVER 0.5 HR (+500)
Projection: 19% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.96 EV
One reason to bet this: My projections for his expected wOBA (.356) may lead us to conclude that Langeliers has experienced some negative variance this year compared to his .332 actual wOBA.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Colton Gordon | UNDER 3.5 K (+115)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.77 EV
One reason to bet this: Gordon and his 37.4% underlying GB% (via my projections) will be in a troublesome position in today's matchup.
Hunter Dobbins | UNDER 3.5 K (+105)
Projection: 56% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.37 EV
One reason to bet this: The No. 6 venue in the league for suppressing strikeouts, per my projections, is Fenway Park.
Mitch Keller | UNDER 6.5 K (-165)
Projection: 70% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.47 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.3 mph in this matchup, third-best of the day for bats.
Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets
Royals @ Giants | YRFI (+125)
Projection: 48% chance of RUN with a $7.01 EV
Angels @ Athletics | NRFI (-100)
Projection: 53% chance of NO RUN with a $5.96 EV
D-Backs @ Dodgers | YRFI (-130)
Projection: 58% chance of RUN with a $3.33 EV
