Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Pitchers to stream on Sunday
Over his first six starts, Cincinnati Reds LHP Andrew Abbott has been both good and lucky. His 31.7% strikeout rate is the seventh best among pitchers compiling at least 30 innings, but he's benefited from a .254 BABIP, 7.5% HR/FB rate and 86.3% left on base clip. Abbott's 3.70 xFIP and 3.32 SIERA indicate that he's been solid, just not to the level of his actual 2.10 ERA. On Sunday, Abbott has a home date with the Cleveland Guardians, and the lineup with the 11th lowest wOBA and 10th poorest strikeout rate facing lefties.
Arizona Diamondbacks RHP Merrill Kelly has fanned an unusually high 14 batters over his past two outings spanning 13 1/3 innings. He's in a great spot to keep recording punchouts in a home matchup against the Colorado Rockies who sport the second highest strikeout rate against right-handers.
Given, it's a small sample, but in this instance it could be meaningful. Tampa Bay Rays RHP Shane Baz sports a 6.03 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 31 1/3 home innings as compared to a 2.31 ERA and .94 WHIP over 11 1/3 road stanzas. On Sunday, Baz will still be pitching in the Sunshine State, but it will be in Little Havana for a road tilt against the Miami Marlins. Look for Baz's early season success away from George Steinbrenner Field to continue facing a below average offense versus righties.
Pitchers to avoid on Sunday
Toronto Blue Jays RHP Jose Berrios is experiencing a "Jekyll and Hyde" type season. Over six of his starts, his ERA is a crisp 2.45. However, in the other three, it climbs to 8.80. While sample size noise is part of the reason, Berrios has also been inconsistent. As such, the safe play is benching Berrios for his home date against the Detroit Tigers, who tote the fifth best wOBA facing right-handers across the border.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Chicago Cubs pitchers vs. White Sox hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: A | Wind: A+ | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.23 ERA in this matchup.
Milwaukee Brewers pitchers vs. Twins hitters
Offense: A | Park: A | Umpire: B | Temperature: C+ | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.55 ERA in this matchup.
Texas Rangers pitchers vs. Astros hitters
Offense: C | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: B- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.81 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Los Angeles Angels pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: C+ | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.39 ERA in this matchup.
Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers vs. Phillies hitters
Offense: F | Park: C | Umpire: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.14 ERA in this matchup.
Washington Nationals pitchers vs. Orioles hitters
Offense: D | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: C- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.12 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Sunday
Brandon Hyde was not the reason for the Baltimore Orioles' slow start, but sometimes replacing the manager sparks a club, and the Orioles need something to jump start their offense. The fantasy silver lining to the club's woes is only Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman are rostered in more than 65% of ESPN leagues. On Sunday, Washington Nationals RHP Michael Soroka is slated to start in Camden Yards. Soroka has fanned 15 in 14 frames, but he also sports a 6.43 ERA. Cedric Mullins, Jackson Holliday, Ryan O'Hearn and Ryan Mountcastle are all in a position to flip their first quarter script.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Cincinnati Reds LHB vs. Guardians pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: D | Park: A | Umpire: A | Framing: F | Temperature: C | Wind: A | Home
The average hitter would post a .348 wOBA in this matchup.
Atlanta Braves LHB vs. Red Sox pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: D | Park: A | Umpire: D | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: A+ | Away
The average hitter would post a .347 wOBA in this matchup.
Los Angeles Dodgers RHB vs. Angels pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: B | Park: B | Umpire: C | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .341 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
San Diego Padres RHB vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Umpire: C | Framing: F | Temperature: D | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .265 wOBA in this matchup.
Chicago White Sox RHB vs. Cubs pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: A | Park: D | Umpire: D | Framing: C | Temperature: D | Wind: F | Away
The average hitter would post a .273 wOBA in this matchup.
Seattle Mariners RHB vs. Padres pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: F | Umpire: C | Framing: B | Temperature: D | Wind: B | Away
The average hitter would post a .277 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top home run prop bets
Leody Taveras | OVER 0.5 HR (+1200)
Projection: 11% chance of this bet hitting, with a $38.58 EV
One reason to bet this: There has been a significant improvement in Taveras's launch angle from last seasons 14.1 degrees to 24.5 degrees this season.
Trent Grisham | OVER 0.5 HR (+550)
Projection: 21% chance of this bet hitting, with a $38.32 EV
One reason to bet this: Grisham has made notable strides with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 17.5% seasonal rate to 33.3% in the last week.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+475)
Projection: 23% chance of this bet hitting, with a $31.62 EV
One reason to bet this: This contest is projected to have the second-most suitable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Freddy Peralta | OVER 6.5 K (-100)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.40 EV
One reason to bet this: Peralta has averaged 93.5 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, ranking in the 82nd percentile.
Mick Abel | UNDER 4.5 K (-110)
Projection: 61% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.72 EV
One reason to bet this: Projected catcher J.T. Realmuto profiles as a weak pitch framer, according to my projections.
Luis Ortiz | UNDER 5.5 K (-115)
Projection: 62% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.50 EV
One reason to bet this: It is likely that we will see a "hitters umpire" (Ramon De Jesus) calling pitches today.
Today's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets
Astros @ Rangers | NRFI (-120)
Projection: 58% chance of NO RUN with a $7.05 EV.
White Sox @ Cubs | NRFI (-120)
Projection: 56% chance of NO RUN with a $2.94 EV.
Twins @ Brewers | NRFI (-130)
Projection: 57% chance of NO RUN with a $1.17 EV.
