Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Pitchers to stream on Saturday
Chicago Cubs LHP Matthew Boyd's last two outings have been quality starts. He's in a great spot to make it three with a home date against the Chicago White Sox. Boyd fanned 15 without issuing a walk over his last two efforts, spanning 12 innings. The White Sox strike out at an above average clip, in part fueling the fifth lowest wOBA in the league against left-handers.
Houston Astros RHP Ronel Blanco is also coming off consecutive quality starts, the last being eight shutout frames with 11 punchouts at home against the Reds. On Saturday, Blanco will take the hill in Globe Life Field to face a disappointing Rangers lineup averaging the fifth fewest runs per game in MLB. The hosts will be with SS Corey Seager, who is on the 10-day IL with a sore hamstring.
Usually, it's safe to wait on pitchers returning from a long layoff, particularly if they're likely on a pitch count. But when you're a future Hall of Famer, and you face one of the weakest lineups in the league, exceptions are made. Los Angeles Dodgers LHP Clayton Kershaw is slated to make his 2025 debut on Saturday, opposing the Los Angeles Angels in Chavez Ravine. The Angels sport the highest strikeout rate and second lowest wOBA versus southpaw pitching. Kershaw compiled 57 pitches in his final rehab outing, so five innings is plausible.
Pitchers to avoid on Saturday
Rangers RHP Tyler Mahle has yet to yield more than two runs in any of his eight starts this season, five of which were quality efforts. He's registered a 1.47 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. While it hasn't all been good fortune, Lady Luck has played a big part. Most notably, Mahle has benefited from a .216 BABIP, 4.1% home run per fly ball rate and a left on base mark of 88.2%. The regression monster is looming and will strike, perhaps as soon as Saturday night in Arlington against the Astros.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Milwaukee Brewers pitchers vs. Twins hitters
Offense: A | Park: A | Umpire: C | Temperature: A | Wind: F | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.58 ERA in this matchup.
Chicago Cubs pitchers vs. White Sox hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: B | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.63 ERA in this matchup.
Toronto Blue Jays pitchers vs. Tigers hitters
Offense: B | Park: D | Umpire: B | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.79 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Washington Nationals pitchers vs. Orioles hitters
Offense: D | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.64 ERA in this matchup.
Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers vs. Phillies hitters
Offense: F | Park: C | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.46 ERA in this matchup.
New York Mets pitchers vs. Yankees hitters
Offense: F | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.26 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Saturday
Pittsburgh Pirates RHP Carmen Mlodzinski has pitched better lately with a 2.51 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over his prior three starts, but he's fanned just eight over those 14 1/3 innings. The associated 4.63 xFIP paints a more realistic picture. Checking on the availability of Philadelphia Phillies 2B Bryson Stott, OF Nick Castellanos, 1B/3B Alec Bohm and C J.T. Realmuto could pay dividends.
There was a time that streaming Colorado Rockies RHP German Marquez on the road was a sound strategy. Those days are gone, as evidenced by a 10.53 ERA and 1.83 in five starts away from Coors Field. The Arizona Diamondbacks are averaging the seventh most runs per game at home and should be able to pad that on Saturday against Marquez. The main targets are 3B Eugenio Suarez, 1B/OF Pavin Smith and recently promoted 3B/SS Jordan Lawlar.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Baltimore Orioles LHB vs. Nationals pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: C | Park: B | Umpire: D | Framing: C | Temperature: A | Wind: A | Home
The average hitter would post a .366 wOBA in this matchup.
Philadelphia Phillies LHB vs. Pirates pitchers
SP: A+ | Bullpen: A | Park: C | Umpire: B | Framing: C | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .353 wOBA in this matchup.
Washington Nationals LHB vs. Orioles pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: D | Park: B | Umpire: D | Framing: D | Temperature: A | Wind: A | Away
The average hitter would post a .349 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Seattle Mariners LHB vs. Padres pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: F | Park: F | Umpire: C | Framing: B | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .279 wOBA in this matchup.
Milwaukee Brewers RHB vs. Twins pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: F | Umpire: C | Framing: B | Temperature: D | Wind: A+ | Home
The average hitter would post a .280 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top home run prop bets
Jackson Holliday | OVER 0.5 HR (+600)
Projection: 18% chance of this bet hitting, with a $23.34 EV
One reason to bet this: Jackson Holliday has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (86% of the time), but he is projected to hit first in the lineup in today's game.
Gunnar Henderson | OVER 0.5 HR (+300)
Projection: 30% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.12 EV
One reason to bet this: High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense and fewer whiffs, and the weather report expects the hottest temperature on the schedule today at 88 degrees.
Ramon Urias | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 13% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.80 EV
One reason to bet this: Urias hits many of his fly balls to center field (38.7% -- 85th percentile) and is fortunate to face the games fourth-shallowest CF fences in todays game.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Griffin Canning | UNDER 4.5 K (-100)
Projection: 60% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.06 EV
One reason to bet this: Given that flyball pitchers struggle the most against groundball hitters, Canning (43.1% FB% via my projections) will be a bit disadvantaged today with three ground ball hitters in New Yorks projected offense.
Jake Irvin | UNDER 3.5 K (+125)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.60 EV
One reason to bet this: Irvin struggled when it came to striking hitters out in his last game and posted just two Ks.
Drew Rasmussen | UNDER 1.5 ER (+115)
Projection: 51% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.67 EV
One reason to bet this: Rasmussens 94.7-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 81st percentile among all starters.
Today's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets
White Sox @ Cubs | NRFI (+110)
Projection: 50% chance of NO RUN with a $4.22 EV
Braves @ Red Sox | YRFI (-120)
Projection: 56% chance of RUN with a $3.93 EV
Rays @ Marlins | NRFI (-135)
Projection: 59% chance of NO RUN with a $4.14 EV
