Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Pitchers to stream on Friday
Atlanta Braves RHP AJ Smith-Shawver is an improved walk rate away from cementing a full time rotation role. RHP Spencer Strider is slated to return next week, replacing either Smith-Shawver or RHP Bryce Elder, or the club can opt for a six-man rotation. Regardless, a strong showing from Smith-Shawver at home on Thursday against the Washington Nationals would help his cause. His four-seam fastball and splitter register as plus pitches, but his changeup and slider need work. Overall, he throws 61.9% of his pitches for strikes, which is below the 63.6% league average. Smith-Shawver is in a good spot to impress the Braves staff with a juicy matchup, facing the lineup with the fourth lowest road wOBA versus right-handers.
Cincinnati Reds RHP Nick Martinez has posted three straight quality starts, though he yielded 10 hits in his last outing, but no walks and no homers allowed limited the damage. Martinez has issued only two free passes over his recent 18 inning span. The key is pitch efficiency, which has allowed Martinez to rack up innings, and therefore points. Thursday offers another chance for a solid outing, at home against the Chicago White Sox.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Texas Rangers pitchers vs. Astros hitters
Offense: C | Park: B | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: B- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.84 ERA in this matchup.
Toronto Blue Jays pitchers vs. Rays hitters
Offense: A | Park: D | Umpire: D | Temperature: C+ | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 4.04 ERA in this matchup.
Atlanta Braves pitchers vs. Nationals hitters
Offense: B | Park: D | Umpire: A | Temperature: D+ | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 4.20 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Minnesota Twins pitchers vs. Orioles hitters
Offense: D | Park: F | Umpire: D | Temperature: B- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.15 ERA in this matchup.
Athletics pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: B | Temperature: B+ | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.03 ERA in this matchup.
Chicago White Sox pitchers vs. Reds hitters
Offense: B | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.00 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Friday
With only six games on the docket, fantasy rosters will have multiple holes, so stacking from the same team can help amplify offensive production. Most of the Braves hitters are rostered, but adding Michael Harris II, Alex Verdugo, Sean Murphy and Eli White to a lineup already with Austin Riley, Matt Olson or Marcell Ozuna could prove fruitful against Nationals RHP Trevor Williams.
Similarly, assembling a Reds' stack facing White Sox RHP Bryse Wilson should yield a lot of production. Matt McLain, Spencer Steer, Tyler Stephenson, Gavin Lux and Austin Hays are options to supplement a roster already sporting Elly De La Cruz. Plus, since so many Red's hitters are available, teams without De La Cruz can take advantage.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Cincinnati Reds batters vs. White Sox pitchers
SP: A+ | Bullpen: A+ | Park: A | Umpire: C | Framing: B | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .368 wOBA in this matchup.
Atlanta Braves LHB vs. Nationals pitchers
SP: A+ | Bullpen: C | Park: B | Umpire: F | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .345 wOBA in this matchup.
Los Angeles Dodgers LHB vs. Athletics pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: C | Park: B | Umpire: D | Framing: B | Temperature: D | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .337 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Houston Astros batters vs. Rangers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: A | Park: D | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .279 wOBA in this matchup.
Texas Rangers batters vs. Astros pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: D | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .293 wOBA in this matchup.
Tampa Bay Rays RHB vs. Blue Jays pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: F | Park: C | Umpire: A | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .306 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Shea Langeliers | OVER 0.5 HR (+450)
Projection: 23% chance of this bet hitting, with a $23.75 EV
One reason to bet this: Dodger Stadium has the lowest average fence height In the majors.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+400)
Projection: 24% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.20 EV
One reason to bet this: Rogers Centre ranks as the No. 2 ballpark in baseball for righty home runs, per my projections.
Matt McLain | OVER 0.5 HR (+425)
Projection: 21% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.46 EV
One reason to bet this: McLain has an 80th-percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and sets up very well considering that today he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's eighth-shallowest RF fences.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Jacob deGrom | OVER 6.5 K (+105)
Projection: 55% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.55 EV
One reason to bet this: Among all starters, deGrom's fastball velocity of 96.3 mph grades out in the 95th percentile this year.
Trevor Williams | UNDER 3.5 K (+120)
Projection: 49% chance of this bet hitting, with a $6.88 EV
One reason to bet this: Out of all SPs, Williams' fastball spin rate of 2213 rpm grades out in the 24th percentile this year.
Hunter Brown | UNDER 6.5 K (-140)
Projection: 62% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.85 EV
One reason to bet this: The weather report projects the fourth-best hitting weather on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.
Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets
Astros @ Rangers | NRFI (-140)
Projection: 60% chance of NO RUN with a $5.18 EV
Athletics @ Dodgers | YRFI (-135)
Projection: 58% chance of RUN with a $2.45 EV
