Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Pitchers to stream on Tuesday
Chicago Cubs RHP Ben Brown is taking advantage of his first extended stint in the rotation, though his 4.95 ERA and 1.65 WHIP may not reflect his effectiveness. Given, a couple of poor outings show Brown remains inconsistent, but take away two April outings where he surrendered 11 runs in 7 2/3 innings, Brown sports a pristine 2.83 ERA with 34 strikeouts in 28 2/3 innings. On Tuesday, Brown enjoys a favorable home matchup with the Miami Marlins. The visitors are no longer a pushover offense as they're mid-pack in terms of average runs per game and strikeouts, but it's still favorable for Brown.
Cincinnati Reds RHP Andrew Abbott has made only five stats after beginning the season on the IL with a left rotator cuff strain. He's showing no signs of any lingering issues with four starts allowing no more than one run, and the fifth outing was in Coors Field. Most impressively, Abbott has 31 punchouts in 24 frames. The 26-year-old righty should continue to be productive with a home date against the Chicago White Sox on the docket.
Pitchers to avoid on Tuesday
San Francisco Giants LHP Robbie Ray is 5-0 with a 2.84 ERA through seven starts. With the note he's pitched well over his last three efforts, overall he's been fortunate. The lefty's 84.8% left on base mark is suppressing his ERA well below his 4.19 xFIP and 4.23 SIERA. His 12.7% walk rate is the highest among qualified pitchers and his .234 BABIP is ripe for regression, adding even more base traffic. Lastly, Ray's 25.4% strikeout rate is above the league average, but it's below his career level. Despite a start at pitcher friendly Oracle Park, Ray is risky on Tuesday, facing the Arizona Diamondbacks. The visitors don't strike out much and walk at an above average clip versus left-handers.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Chicago Cubs pitchers vs. Marlins hitters
The average pitcher would post a 3.39 ERA in this matchup.
New York Mets pitchers vs. Pirates hitters
The average pitcher would post a 3.48 ERA in this matchup.
Texas Rangers pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
The average pitcher would post a 3.51 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Minnesota Twins pitchers vs. Orioles hitters
The average pitcher would post a 4.88 ERA in this matchup.
St. Louis Cardinals pitchers vs. Phillies hitters
The average pitcher would post a 4.86 ERA in this matchup.
Athletics pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
The average pitcher would post a 4.85 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Tuesday
With RHP Casey Mize on the IL with a sore hamstring, the Detroit Tigers will lean on RHP Keider Montero as the bulk pitcher in a "bullpen game" in Comerica Park against the Boston Red Sox. Serving as the 27th man in a doubleheader last week, Montero tossed eight innings in Coors Field, allowing just one run, however he fanned just to Colorado Rockies betters. In 21 2/3 frames this season, Montero has only 15 strikeouts, and that's with eight over five frames in his first start of the season. The Red Sox lineup is warming up, with Kristian Campbell, Trevor Story and Ceddanne Rafaela all in play as Tuesday pickups.
With RHP Brandon Woodruff close to returning for the Milwaukee Brewers, RHP Quinn Priester could be pitching for his spot in the rotation when he opposes the Cleveland Guardians in Progressive Field. In 28 1/3 stanzas, Priester has fanned just 20 while issuing a generous 19 walks. Kyle Manzardo, Daniel Schneemann, Carlos Santana and Gabriel Arias all line up for a productive effort for the Guardians.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Cincinnati Reds batters vs. White Sox pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: A+ | Park: A | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .344 wOBA in this matchup.
Chicago White Sox RHB vs. Reds pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: C | Park: A | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .333 wOBA in this matchup.
Cleveland Guardians LHB vs. Brewers pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Umpire: F | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .330 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
New York Yankees RHB vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Umpire: A | Temperature: D | Wind: A | Away
The average hitter would post a .256 wOBA in this matchup.
Los Angeles Angels batters vs. Padres pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: F | Umpire: D | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .272 wOBA in this matchup.
Miami Marlins LHB vs. Cubs pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: A | Park: C | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: F | Away
The average hitter would post a .278 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+500)
Projection: 21% chance of this bet hitting, with a $28.04 EV
One reason to bet this: As it relates to his home runs, Guerrero has experienced some negative variance this year. His 13.6 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been significantly deflated relative to my projected Expected HR/600 of 23.5.
Heliot Ramos | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 14% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.58 EV
One reason to bet this: Ramos has seen a sizable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games. Compare his 103.2-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal EV of 96.4 mph.
Brandon Lowe | OVER 0.5 HR (+600)
Projection: 18% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.50 EV
One reason to bet this: Lowe hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39% -- 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Valente Bellozo | UNDER 3.5 K (-115)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.60 EV
One reason to bet this: Given his large reverse platoon split, Bellozo will have a tough challenge going up against six batters in the projected lineup who share his handedness.
Ben Brown | UNDER 6.5 K (-100)
Projection: 55% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.50 EV
One reason to bet this: With a 1.05 discrepancy between Brown's 10.90 K/9 and his 9.85 estimated true talent K/9 (via my projections), it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers this year when it comes to strikeouts. He should perform worse in the future.
Dylan Cease | OVER 7.5 K (-135)
Projection: 62% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.78 EV
One reason to bet this: Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more whiffs). The weather forecast calls for the third-coldest weather (59 degrees) of all games today.
Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets
Rockies @ Rangers | NRFI (-110)
Projection: 54% chance of NO RUN with a $4.26 EV
Angels @ Padres | NRFI (-130)
Projection: 58% chance of NO RUN with a $4.50 EV
Marlins @ Cubs | NRFI (-115)
Projection: 55% chance of NO RUN with a $3.04 EV
