Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Pitchers to stream on Wednesday
An overlooked aspect of points-league scoring is how innings help mitigate a low strikeout rate. In ESPN scoring, an inning is worth three points, compared to one point per punchout. Six innings with five strikeouts scores two more points than five innings with six strikeouts. Starters like St. Louis Cardinals RHP Erick Fedde are underappreciated in points leagues. He has only 29 strikeouts in 46 2/3 innings, but he's averaging 6.5 frames over his last six outings, including a complete-game shutout last time out. Repeating that effort on the road against the Philadelphia Phillies will be a challenge, but the Phillies offense has the seventh-lowest wOBA facing breaking balls and off-speed stuff. Meanwhile, on average, over 60% of Fedde's pitches are breaking balls or slower offerings.
Chicago Cubs RHP Jameson Taillon is another example of a starter more useful in points formats than category scoring. If Taillon can keep the ball in the yard, he usually compiles at least six stanzas. He's done it in half of his eight starts so far, with a good chance of achieving six innings for a fifth time on Wednesday in a home start against the Miami Marlins and their below-average home run rate.
It has been an uneven first quarter of the season for Cincinnati Reds LHP Nick Lodolo, though the fact he has made eight starts is encouraging. His 3.23 ERA and 1.01 WHIP are certainly promising as well, though his ERA estimators peg his mark a run higher, in part due to a .255 BABIP. On Wednesday, Lodolo has a favorable home date with the Chicago White Sox, who will tote the fifth-lowest wOBA versus left-handers into Great American Ballpark.
Pitchers to avoid on Wednesday
Marlins LHP Ryan Weathers is slated to make his 2025 debut at Wrigley Field against the potent Cubs offense. Weathers was on a lot of breakout lists in the spring, but he's yet to take the hill after straining his forearm. The lefty was effective in rehab, fanning 13 over 10 2/3 innings, but he only stretched out to 57 pitches in his last outing. Even if the Cubs didn't boast the third-highest wOBA facing lefties, it's too risky to start Weathers.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Texas Rangers pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
The average pitcher would post a 3.23 ERA in this matchup.
Chicago Cubs pitchers vs. Marlins hitters
The average pitcher would post a 3.26 ERA in this matchup.
New York Mets pitchers vs. Pirates hitters
The average pitcher would post a 3.51 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Athletics pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
The average pitcher would post a 5.33 ERA in this matchup.
Minnesota Twins pitchers vs. Orioles hitters
The average pitcher would post a 5.08 ERA in this matchup.
Washington Nationals pitchers vs. Braves hitters
The average pitcher would post a 4.98 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Wednesday
Atlanta Braves RHP Bryce Elder is coming off his best outing of the season, fanning eight in six frames, but he also surrendered a pair of long balls to the Pittsburgh Pirates, the club with the second-lowest home run rate in the league. It should be hot at Truist Park, landing the visiting Washington Nationals as one of the better lineups for production. Nathaniel Lowe, Dylan Crews and Josh Bell are the chief targets.
Hitters to avoid on Wednesday
There are better streaming options than Tampa Bay Rays RHP Ryan Pepiot, but on paper it's still a good matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays. The Blue Jays' wOBA against cutters, sliders and changeups is just .267. On average, Pepiot throws those pitches over 55% of the time, so it's best to look elsewhere for offensive production.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Cincinnati Reds batters vs. White Sox pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: A+ | Park: A | Umpire: D | Temperature: C | Wind: D | Home
The average hitter would post a .348 wOBA in this matchup.
Atlanta Braves batters vs. Nationals pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: C | Park: B | Umpire: B | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .333 wOBA in this matchup.
Texas Rangers LHB vs. Rockies pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: D | Park: D | Umpire: D | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .331 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Boston Red Sox batters vs. Tigers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: D | Umpire: F | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .263 wOBA in this matchup.
New York Yankees RHB vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: B | Away
The average hitter would post a .269 wOBA in this matchup.
St. Louis Cardinals LHB vs. Phillies pitchers (Game 1)
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .275 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top home run prop bets
Gunnar Henderson | OVER 0.5 HR (+550)
Projection: 23% chance of this bet hitting, with a $50.54 EV
One reason to bet this: Henderson has seen a sizable improvement in his exit velocity this season. Compare his 94.9-mph average to last years 92.7-mph mark.
Jackson Holliday | OVER 0.5 HR (+900)
Projection: 14% chance of this bet hitting, with a $41.10 EV
One reason to bet this: Extreme flyball bats like Holliday generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Bailey Ober.
Ryan O'Hearn | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 15% chance of this bet hitting, with a $38.33 EV
One reason to bet this: Over the last 14 days, O'Hearn's 27.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23-34 degrees) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 19.5%.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Michael Lorenzen | UNDER 4.5 K (-115)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.39 EV
One reason to bet this: Lorenzen has had positive variance on his side in 2025 when it comes to his strikeouts, compiling a 7.94 K/9 despite my projections estimating his true talent level to be 7.41 -- a 0.53 K/9 discrepancy.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto | OVER 6.5 K (+115)
Projection: 51% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.93 EV
One reason to bet this: Yamamoto has averaged 97.5 adjusted pitches per start this year, placing him in the 93rd percentile.
Patrick Corbin | OVER 5.5 K (+110)
Projection: 51% chance of this bet hitting, with a $6.66 EV
One reason to bet this: The Colorado Rockies (28.9 K%) project to have the most strikeout-heavy set of batters on the slate.
Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets
Red Sox @ Tigers | NRFI (-140)
Projection: 59% chance of NO RUN with a $0.66 EV
Marlins @ Cubs | NRFI (-125)
Projection: 56% chance of NO RUN with a $0.55 EV
