Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Pitchers to stream on Sunday
Detroit Tigers RHP Reese Olson gave up a home run to Los Angeles Dodgers 1B Freddie Freeman in his first start. It's the only long ball he's surrendered all season. The righty has fanned 40 in 38 2/3 innings. On Sunday, Olson faces the Texas Rangers, who are averaging the second lowest runs per game in MLB.
Chicago Cubs LHP Matthew Boyd has four quality starts in seven outings and plays for the highest scoring team in the league, yet he is still available in almost 80% of ESPN leagues. Sunday poses a tough road matchup with a New York Mets team that hits lefties well, but Boyd has earned this nod.
Two of Houston Astros RHP Ronel Blanco's past three outings have been quality starts. He's in a good spot for another with a home date against a below average Cincinnati Reds lineup.
Pitchers to avoid on Sunday
Avoiding a former Cy Young award winner when facing one of the least potent offenses in the league may seem like a stretch, but until RHP Sandy Alcantara displays better command and control, he's unplayable, even against the Chicago White Sox. The White Sox are averaging the fourth fewest runs per game in the league, but they're walking at the 11th highest clip and Alcantara has issued 18 free passes in just 31 frames.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Miami Marlins pitchers vs. White Sox hitters
Offense: B | Park: D | Umpire: A | Temperature: B+ | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.64 ERA in this matchup.
Chicago White Sox pitchers vs. Marlins hitters
Offense: B | Park: D | Umpire: A | Temperature: B+ | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.64 ERA in this matchup.
Atlanta Braves pitchers vs. Pirates hitters
Offense: B | Park: D | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.88 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Colorado Rockies pitchers vs. Padres hitters
Offense: D | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.91 ERA in this matchup.
San Diego Padres pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: A | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.19 ERA in this matchup.
Arizona Diamondbacks pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: D | Umpire: C | Temperature: D+ | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.16 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Sunday
Last season, the Seattle Mariners sported the second highest strikeout rate in MLB. This season, their strikeout rate is the 14th lowest. After the first weekend of the season, it's the 11th best. On Sunday, the Mariners face Toronto Blue Jays RHP Jose Urena. Since 2021, Urena's strikeout rate is the worst among pitchers amassing at least 350 innings while registering the fourth worst wOBA against in that span.
Today's best matchups for hitters
San Diego Padres batters vs. Rockies pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: D | Park: A+ | Umpire: C | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .364 wOBA in this matchup.
Colorado Rockies RHB vs. Padres pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: F | Park: A+ | Umpire: C | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .368 wOBA in this matchup.
Athletics RHB vs. Yankees pitchers
SP: A+ | Bullpen: C | Park: B | Umpire: A | Temperature: C | Wind: A+ | Home
The average hitter would post a .351 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Cleveland Guardians RHB vs. Phillies pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: B | Park: C | Umpire: B | Temperature: D | Wind: F | Home
The average hitter would post a .265 wOBA in this matchup.
Pittsburgh Pirates LHB vs. Braves pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Umpire: C | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .267 wOBA in this matchup.
Toronto Blue Jays RHB vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Umpire: B | Temperature: D | Wind: B | Away
The average hitter would post a .277 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top home run prop bets
Brent Rooker | OVER 0.5 HR (+400)
Projection: 27% chance of this bet hitting, with a $34.35 EV
One reason to bet this: Among all major league parks, Sutter Health Park has the fifth-lowest average fence height.
Kyle Isbel | OVER 0.5 HR (+1400)
Projection: 8% chance of this bet hitting, with a $24.50 EV
One reason to bet this: Kyle Isbel has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% recently, improving his 4.2% seasonal rate to 10% over the past seven days.
Oneil Cruz | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 13% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.28 EV
One reason to bet this: Oneil Cruzs ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23 degrees and 34 degrees) has gotten better from last season to this one, increasing from 13.2% to 22.9%.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Tony Gonsolin | UNDER 4.5 K (-155)
Projection: 69% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.26 EV
One reason to bet this: The #3 ballpark in baseball for suppressing strikeouts, via my projections, is Chase Field.
Drew Rasmussen | UNDER 2.5 ER (-180)
Projection: 71% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.79 EV
One reason to bet this: Considering that groundball pitchers hold a notable advantage over groundball batters, Drew Rasmussen and his 47.2% underlying GB% (via my projections) will be in a strong spot in this game matching up with four opposing GB batters.
Chad Patrick | UNDER 4.5 K (-135)
Projection: 63% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.21 EV
One reason to bet this: Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the third-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 85 degrees.
Today's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets
Brewers @ Rays | NRFI (-110)
Projection: 53% chance of NO RUN with a $1.80 EV
Marlins @ White Sox | NRFI (-125)
Projection: 56% chance of NO RUN with a $1.83 EV
Reds @ Astros | NRFI (-115)
Projection: 54% chance of NO RUN with a $0.22 EV
