Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Pitchers to stream on Friday
Last season's gentle handling of RHP Max Meyer is paying off for the Miami Marlins, as the 26-year-old is off to a solid start to the season. Meyer completed six frames only four times in 11 starts last season. He has already accomplished that feat four times in seven starts this season. Though Meyer has struggled in his last two outings, yielding 10 earned runs over a combined nine stanzas, Friday is the ideal spot to get back on track in a road date against a Chicago White Sox team with the lowest wOBA in the league.
After striking out just nine batters while surrendering six homers over his first 28 innings, Baltimore Orioles RHP Tomoyuki Sugano has 12 punchouts with just one homer allowed over his last 11 stanzas. The 35-year-old veteran from Japan has a favorable road date with the Los Angeles Angels on Friday night. Sugano should be able to continue to rack up whiffs against the lineup with the second-highest strikeout rate in MLB, and he doesn't have to contend with OF Mike Trout.
Using starting pitchers against the Kansas City Royals is a slippery slope. They don't strike out much, but they average the fourth-fewest runs per game. In rotisserie leagues with an inning or start limit, using pitchers against the Royals limits the strikeout category. In all other formats, it's an alluring stream. On Friday, Boston Red Sox RHP Hunter Dobbins has a road date with the Royals where the visitors should be the favorites.
Pitchers to avoid on Friday
Milwaukee Brewers LHP Jose Quintana sports a 2.83 ERA, but his 88.4% left-on-base mark suppresses his ERA well below the associated 4.20 xFIP and 4.37 SIERA. A road affair against the Tampa Bay Rays seems appealing since the Rays struggle against left-handed pitching, but it has the feel of a trap game. Their wOBA against lefties is low, but the Rays' walk rate is well above average and they strike out a tad below average.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Chicago White Sox pitchers vs. Marlins hitters
Offense: A | Park: D | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.72 ERA in this matchup.
Washington Nationals pitchers vs. Cardinals hitters
Offense: C | Park: B | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.74 ERA in this matchup.
Seattle Mariners pitchers vs. Blue Jays hitters
Offense: C | Park: A | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: B+ | Wind: B | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.79 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Colorado Rockies pitchers vs. Padres hitters
Offense: D | Park: F | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: B- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.69 ERA in this matchup.
Athletics pitchers vs. Yankees hitters
Offense: F | Park: D | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D- | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.12 ERA in this matchup.
Arizona Diamondbacks pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: D | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.09 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Friday
San Diego Padres 1B/2B Jake Cronenworth is expected to be activated from the IL in advance of the club's three-game set at Coors Field. The Colorado Rockies are scheduled to start a trio of right-handers, beginning with Antonio Senzatela. The left-handed Cronenworth will enjoy the platoon edge all weekend, and his high fly-ball rate should benefit from the thin air.
Texas Rangers LHP Patrick Corbin's 3.28 ERA is a mirage, as evidenced by a 4.24 xFIP and 4.41 SIERA. The veteran southpaw will likely face a heavy dose of the Detroit Tigers' righty-swinging contingent, led by Justyn-Henry Malloy, Gleyber Torres and Andy Ibanez.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Colorado Rockies batters vs. Padres pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: F | Park: A+ | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .365 wOBA in this matchup.
San Diego Padres batters vs. Rockies pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: D | Park: A+ | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .356 wOBA in this matchup.
Los Angeles Angels RHB vs. Orioles pitchers
SP: A+ | Bullpen: D | Park: C | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .349 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Texas Rangers batters vs. Tigers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: D | Temperature: D | Wind: B | Away
The average hitter would post a .260 wOBA in this matchup.
Toronto Blue Jays RHB vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: B | Park: F | Temperature: D | Wind: D | Away
The average hitter would post a .266 wOBA in this matchup.
Cincinnati Reds LHB vs. Astros pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .273 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Nick Kurtz | OVER 0.5 HR (+900)
Projection: 13% chance of this bet hitting, with a $25.90 EV
One reason to bet this: Among all MLB stadiums, Sutter Health Park has the fifth-lowest average fence height.
Kyren Paris | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 14% chance of this bet hitting, with a $23.93 EV
One reason to bet this: Paris has big-time power (77th percentile) if he makes contact, but thats never a guarantee (33.6% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano has a pitch-to-contact profile (2nd percentile K%), which is great news for Paris.
Logan O'Hoppe | OVER 0.5 HR (+425)
Projection: 23% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.97 EV
One reason to bet this: Angel Stadium has the third-lowest average fence height in MLB.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Max Meyer | UNDER 5.5 K (-110)
Projection: 58% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.79 EV
One reason to bet this: Meyer has been very fortunate when it comes to his strikeouts this year, notching a 10.85 K/9 despite my projections estimating his true talent level to be 8.97 - a 1.88 K/9 difference.
Bryse Wilson | UNDER 3.5 K (+110)
Projection: 51% chance of this bet hitting, with a $7.44 EV
One reason to bet this: Wilson's 2112.4-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season is in the 18th percentile among all starters.
Tomoyuki Sugano | UNDER 3.5 K (+125)
Projection: 48% chance of this bet hitting, with a $7.17 EV
One reason to bet this: Sugano has been given a below-average leash this year, throwing 6.1 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.
Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets
Yankees @ Athletics | YRFI (-135)
Projection: 58% chance of RUN with a $1.28 EV
Reds @ Astros | NRFI (-130)
Projection: 58% chance of NO RUN with a $2.25 EV
Rangers @ Tigers | NRFI (-125)
Projection: 56% chance of NO RUN with a $0.87 EV
