Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Pitchers to stream on Saturday
Detroit Tigers RHP Reese Olson will take the Comerica Park hill for a matchup with the Chicago White Sox. Olson was knocked around by the Los Angeles Dodgers in his season debut, but he did fan five with just two walks in 4 2/3 frames. Efforts like that will yield better results against lesser lineups, beginning on Saturday.
San Francisco Giants LHP Robbie Ray surrendered a pair of homers to the Cincinnati Reds in his first start, and homers have been an issue for the lefty over the years. On Saturday, Ray draws a Seattle Mariners lineup with league average power, though it is dampened by T-Mobile Park. Oracle Park squashes power as well, and the Mariners feed Ray's strikeout ability. Be careful, Seattle also draws walks, which is another lingering problem for Ray.
Pitchers to avoid on Saturday
Many talent evaluators touted Los Angeles Dodgers RHP Roki Sasaki's stuff as being comparable to Pittsburgh Pirates RHP Paul Skenes. Sasaki should get there, but currently he's struggling with transitioning to the major leagues, with nine walks in 4 2/3 innings. It's best to practice patience with Sasaki and avoid him for his road date with the Philadelphia Phillies.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Chicago Cubs pitchers vs. Padres hitters
Offense: C | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: A+ | Wind: A+ | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.20 ERA in this matchup.
Detroit Tigers pitchers vs. White Sox hitters
Offense: A | Park: B | Umpire: B | Temperature: A+ | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.38 ERA in this matchup.
San Diego Padres pitchers vs. Cubs hitters
Offense: D | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: A+ | Wind: A+ | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.54 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Tampa Bay Rays pitchers vs. Rangers hitters
Offense: D | Park: B | Umpire: D | Temperature: B- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.96 ERA in this matchup.
Miami Marlins pitchers vs. Braves hitters
Offense: C | Park: D | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: A | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.74 ERA in this matchup.
Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers vs. Yankees hitters
Offense: D | Park: C | Umpire: C | Temperature: C+ | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 4.72 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Saturday
Most of the Tigers lineup is rostered in fewer than 50% of ESPN leagues, making them great targets when facing a lesser starting pitcher, like the White Sox RHP Davis Martin. Kerry Carpenter is a must add, followed by Spencer Torkelson and Colt Keith.
Hitters to avoid on Saturday
Today's best matchups for hitters
Colorado Rockies RHB vs. Athletics pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: C | Park: A+ | Umpire: B | Framing: B | Temperature: F | Wind: D | Home
The average hitter would post a .352 wOBA in this matchup.
Atlanta Braves RHB vs. Marlins pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: A+ | Park: C | Umpire: C | Framing: D | Temperature: B | Wind: F | Home
The average hitter would post a .343 wOBA in this matchup.
Pittsburgh Pirates LHB vs. Yankees pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Umpire: C | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .337 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
San Diego Padres batters vs. Cubs pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: A | Park: D | Umpire: C | Framing: C | Temperature: F | Wind: F | Away
The average hitter would post a .256 wOBA in this matchup.
Chicago Cubs RHB vs. Padres pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: F | Park: D | Umpire: C | Framing: C | Temperature: F | Wind: F | Home
The average hitter would post a .260 wOBA in this matchup.
Tampa Bay Rays RHB vs. Rangers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: B | Park: C | Umpire: A | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .261 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end, you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Brady Singer | OVER 5.5 K (-110)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.45 EV
One reason to bet this: In his last outing, Brady Singer was in good form and notched eight strikeouts.
JP Sears | UNDER 5.5 K (-130)
Projection: 63% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.89 EV
One reason to bet this: Among all starters, JP Searss fastball spin rate of 2084.7 rpm grades out in the eighth percentile since the start of last season.
Roki Sasaki | UNDER 2.5 ER (-150)
Projection: 66% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.73 EV
One reason to bet this: The Philadelphia Phillies have done a weak job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their highest exit velocity balls. Their 10.5 degrees mark is among the lowest in the league since the start of last season (#29 overall).
Today's top home run prop bets
Nolan Jones | OVER 0.5 HR (+900)
Projection: 12% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.30 EV
One reason to bet this: Angel Stadium has the shortest fence height (on average) in Major League Baseball.
Miguel Vargas | OVER 0.5 HR (+1100)
Projection: 10% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.52 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the third-most-favorable of the day for hitters.
Wilmer Flores | OVER 0.5 HR (+1100)
Projection: 10% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.68 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 15.5-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for bats.
