Men's Bracketology: 2026 NCAA Tournament

By Joe Lunardi Updated: 07/29/2025 at 7:00 a.m. ET

What do bracketologists do in the college basketball offseason? The answer, of course, is work on forecasting next season's field of 68! We've been tracking every transfer, portal maneuver and NBA draft entry (and exit) in a comprehensive database of rosters that we use to project the offensive and defensive efficiency of each team and its rank within every conference. The result is an updated bracket each month until October.

Bracket Watch

The announcement flew under the radar a bit, but Grand Canyon's accelerated move from the WAC to the Mountain West for the upcoming season is quite significant from a bracket perspective. The most obvious implication is that a team other than GCU, which captured four of the WAC's past five automatic bids, will represent the conference in the 2026 NCAA tournament. Utah Valley is our choice for the moment, but the Wolverines also will be headed out -- to the Big West next summer. The more intriguing question revolves around the Lopes' prospects in the Mountain West. The MW has garnered a whopping 15 at-large bids since the COVID-19 season, but the league will lose San Diego State, Utah State, Boise State and Colorado State -- four of the five annual contenders -- as well as Fresno State after this season. GCU will be among those counted on to pick up the slack. The Lopes will have the necessary resources long term, but an at-large bid this season might be asking a lot.

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes

Last Four In

First Four Out

Next Four Out

68-Team Bracket

MIDWEST (CHICAGO)

Oklahoma City

Portland

Greenville

Philadelphia

WEST (SAN JOSE)

Greenville

1 Duke - aq
16 SE Missouri St. - aq/
Norfolk St. - aq
8 Mississippi State
9 Maryland

San Diego

St. Louis

Portland

EAST (WASHINGTON D.C.)

Tampa

Buffalo

Oklahoma City

Buffalo

SOUTH (HOUSTON)

St. Louis

Tampa

San Diego

Philadelphia

Conference Breakdown

Conference

Team

Photo illo by ESPN Illustration, additional photos courtesy of Getty Images, Associated Press, Imagn, USA TODAY Sports, Icon Sportswire, EPA/Shutterstock

RULES

ESPN's Bracketology efforts are focused on projecting the NCAA tournament field just as we expect the NCAA Division I basketball committee to select the field in March. ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi uses the same data points favored by the committee, including strength of schedule and other season-long indicators, including the NET and team-sheet data similar to what is available to the NCAA, in his projections of the field. Visit the NCAA's website for a fuller understanding of NCAA selection criteria.

68-Team Bracket

The 68-team bracket is the standard version of the NCAA tournament field that has been in place since 2011. If the 2021 field is comprised of 68 teams, there will be some key differences to past years, however.

The primary adjustment from a normal year is, of course, the playing of the entire NCAA tournament at a single site. This eliminates the need for geographical considerations in seeding. Additionally, there will be at least one fewer automatic qualifier this season, as the Ivy League's decision to forgo the 2020-21 season reduces the number of AQ entries to 31 for this season.

48-Team Bracket

In this projection, a condensed selection process would reduce the field by 10 at-large teams and 10 automatic qualifiers (the latter of which still receive a revenue unit). The top four seeds in each region would receive a bye into the second round, with four first-round games per region - 5 vs. 12, 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10 and 8 vs. 9 - being played without fans on the higher seed's home court.

To minimize travel, first-round pairings will be guided by geography to the greatest extent possible. And the reduced field results in only 32 teams competing at the central site. All participants must post a minimum .500 conference record - the "Lunardi Rule" - for at-large consideration.

16-Team Bracket

In this projection, the committee selects and seeds the 16 best available teams. There are no automatic qualifiers, although all non-competing conference champions receive the designated revenue unit.

To maintain some sense of national balance, conference participation is capped at four teams. And no region shall have more than one team from the same conference.

ESPN

Bracket Watch

Top Overall Seed

First Team Out

Last Team In

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes

Last Four In

First Four Out

Next Four Out

68-Team Bracket

MIDWEST (CHICAGO)

Oklahoma City

Portland

Greenville

Philadelphia

WEST (SAN JOSE)

Greenville

San Diego

St. Louis

Portland

EAST (WASHINGTON D.C.)

Tampa

Buffalo

Oklahoma City

Buffalo

SOUTH (HOUSTON)

St. Louis

Tampa

San Diego

Philadelphia

Conference Breakdown

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