Men's Bracketology: 2026 NCAA Tournament

By Joe Lunardi Updated: 10/13/2025 at 8:30 a.m. ET

All teams are practicing. Most will be playing exhibition games. And we can finally elevate our projections from quantitative only to include some qualitative factors. There will be one more preseason update in two weeks (Oct. 28), reflecting selected exhibition results, practice observations and (hopefully not many) injuries, before the real games commence Nov. 3. The weekly in-season Bracketology will begin a week into the 2025-26 campaign, on Nov. 11.

Bracket Watch

Houston was the 2025 national runner-up, but it begins this season as the No. 1 overall seed in Bracketology. More importantly, the Cougars recently received a procedural advantage that could pay very substantial dividends in March. They were originally slotted as the host institution for the 2026 South Region. By rule, that would have precluded them from playing any rounds in the South Region. Several weeks ago, however, Houston was replaced by Rice as the host, so the Cougars can now be considered for a South Region slot -- allowing for possible Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games in their home city. Not that Kelvin Sampson needs the advantage. But this conveniently timed switch can't hurt Houston's chances of reaching a third Final Four in five years to perhaps, finally, capture the school's first NCAA title. If that were to happen, I hope Rice receives more than a case of Phi Slamma Jamma towels in return. As we all know, the little things matter in March -- and April!

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes

Last Four In

First Four Out

Next Four Out

68-Team Bracket

SOUTH (HOUSTON)

Oklahoma City

Portland

Buffalo

WEST (SAN JOSE)

Greenville

Tampa

Portland

Greenville

EAST (WASHINGTON D.C.)

Tampa

San Diego

Philadelphia

MIDWEST (CHICAGO)

St. Louis

Oklahoma City

St. Louis

Philadelphia

Conference Breakdown

Conference

Team

Photo illo by ESPN Illustration, additional photos courtesy of Getty Images, Associated Press, Imagn, USA TODAY Sports, Icon Sportswire, EPA/Shutterstock

RULES

ESPN's Bracketology efforts are focused on projecting the NCAA tournament field just as we expect the NCAA Division I basketball committee to select the field in March. ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi uses the same data points favored by the committee, including strength of schedule and other season-long indicators, including the NET and team-sheet data similar to what is available to the NCAA, in his projections of the field. Visit the NCAA's website for a fuller understanding of NCAA selection criteria.

68-Team Bracket

The 68-team bracket is the standard version of the NCAA tournament field that has been in place since 2011. If the 2021 field is comprised of 68 teams, there will be some key differences to past years, however.

The primary adjustment from a normal year is, of course, the playing of the entire NCAA tournament at a single site. This eliminates the need for geographical considerations in seeding. Additionally, there will be at least one fewer automatic qualifier this season, as the Ivy League's decision to forgo the 2020-21 season reduces the number of AQ entries to 31 for this season.

48-Team Bracket

In this projection, a condensed selection process would reduce the field by 10 at-large teams and 10 automatic qualifiers (the latter of which still receive a revenue unit). The top four seeds in each region would receive a bye into the second round, with four first-round games per region - 5 vs. 12, 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10 and 8 vs. 9 - being played without fans on the higher seed's home court.

To minimize travel, first-round pairings will be guided by geography to the greatest extent possible. And the reduced field results in only 32 teams competing at the central site. All participants must post a minimum .500 conference record - the "Lunardi Rule" - for at-large consideration.

16-Team Bracket

In this projection, the committee selects and seeds the 16 best available teams. There are no automatic qualifiers, although all non-competing conference champions receive the designated revenue unit.

To maintain some sense of national balance, conference participation is capped at four teams. And no region shall have more than one team from the same conference.

ESPN

Bracket Watch

Top Overall Seed

First Team Out

Last Team In

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes

Last Four In

First Four Out

Next Four Out

68-Team Bracket

SOUTH (HOUSTON)

Oklahoma City

Portland

Buffalo

Buffalo

WEST (SAN JOSE)

Greenville

Tampa

Portland

Greenville

EAST (WASHINGTON D.C.)

Tampa

San Diego

San Diego

Philadelphia

MIDWEST (CHICAGO)

St. Louis

Oklahoma City

St. Louis

Philadelphia

Conference Breakdown

More Stories