Men's Bracketology: 2026 NCAA Tournament

By Joe Lunardi Updated: 04/28/2025 at 10 a.m. ET

What do bracketologists do in the college basketball offseason? The answer, of course, is work on forecasting next season's field of 68! We're tracking every transfer, portal maneuver and NBA draft entry (and exit) in a comprehensive database of rosters. We then use those rosters to project the offensive and defensive efficiency of each team and rank every conference. The result is an updated bracket each month from April through October. Now let's dive into our first edition of the 2025-26 bracket -- and check back on May 20 for version 2.0!

Bracket Watch

For all the talk about bad losses in March, Purdue has been remarkably consistent: The Boilermakers have never been worse than a 5-seed since the 2015-16 season, have reached at least the second weekend in six of the nine tournaments over that span and, despite the ignominy of falling as a 1-seed in 2023, came back with another top seed in 2024 later to emerge as the best team in the country not named UConn. The lottery picks are generally not ending up in West Lafayette. And Matt Painter's best player in recent history, Zach Edey, wasn't good enough to start as a freshman. But Painter has done a remarkable job in retention and player development. Purdue is excelling as an old-school college basketball team in a new wave era -- its reward could be a preseason No. 1 ranking for 2025-26. Having been built largely from the ground up, the Boilermakers seem likely to hold the top spot of our forecasted bracket for the foreseeable future.

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes

Last Four In

First Four Out

Next Four Out

68-Team Bracket

MIDWEST (CHICAGO)

St. Louis

1 Purdue - aq
16 S.C. State - aq/
Central Connecticut - aq
8 Oregon
9 Oklahoma

Tampa

Oklahoma City

St. Louis

SOUTH (HOUSTON)

Philadelphia

San Diego

Tampa

Portland

WEST (SAN JOSE)

Oklahoma City

Portland

Greenville

Buffalo

EAST (WASHINGTON D.C.)

Greenville

Buffalo

San Diego

Philadelphia

Conference Breakdown

Conference

Team

Photo illo by ESPN Illustration, additional photos courtesy of Getty Images, Associated Press, Imagn, USA TODAY Sports, Icon Sportswire, EPA/Shutterstock

RULES

ESPN's Bracketology efforts are focused on projecting the NCAA tournament field just as we expect the NCAA Division I basketball committee to select the field in March. ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi uses the same data points favored by the committee, including strength of schedule and other season-long indicators, including the NET and team-sheet data similar to what is available to the NCAA, in his projections of the field. Visit the NCAA's website for a fuller understanding of NCAA selection criteria.

68-Team Bracket

The 68-team bracket is the standard version of the NCAA tournament field that has been in place since 2011. If the 2021 field is comprised of 68 teams, there will be some key differences to past years, however.

The primary adjustment from a normal year is, of course, the playing of the entire NCAA tournament at a single site. This eliminates the need for geographical considerations in seeding. Additionally, there will be at least one fewer automatic qualifier this season, as the Ivy League's decision to forgo the 2020-21 season reduces the number of AQ entries to 31 for this season.

48-Team Bracket

In this projection, a condensed selection process would reduce the field by 10 at-large teams and 10 automatic qualifiers (the latter of which still receive a revenue unit). The top four seeds in each region would receive a bye into the second round, with four first-round games per region - 5 vs. 12, 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10 and 8 vs. 9 - being played without fans on the higher seed's home court.

To minimize travel, first-round pairings will be guided by geography to the greatest extent possible. And the reduced field results in only 32 teams competing at the central site. All participants must post a minimum .500 conference record - the "Lunardi Rule" - for at-large consideration.

16-Team Bracket

In this projection, the committee selects and seeds the 16 best available teams. There are no automatic qualifiers, although all non-competing conference champions receive the designated revenue unit.

To maintain some sense of national balance, conference participation is capped at four teams. And no region shall have more than one team from the same conference.

ESPN

Bracket Watch

Top Overall Seed

First Team Out

Last Team In

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes

Last Four In

First Four Out

Next Four Out

68-Team Bracket

MIDWEST (CHICAGO)

St. Louis

Tampa

Oklahoma City

St. Louis

SOUTH (HOUSTON)

Philadelphia

San Diego

Tampa

Portland

WEST (SAN JOSE)

Oklahoma City

Portland

Greenville

Buffalo

EAST (WASHINGTON D.C.)

Greenville

Buffalo

San Diego

Philadelphia

Conference Breakdown

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