Live NFL playoff picture: Updated chances, projections
We tracked the 2024 NFL season's playoff picture in Week 18. Here's how the wild-card spots, division standings and even the draft order look.
NFL playoff picture projections
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ESPN Analytics' live NFL playoff chances -- which combine current in-game win probabilities with our Football Power Index (FPI) season projections -- provided each team's postseason likelihood throughout the Week 18 slate. But the final standings are in -- see how both conferences stack up. We also tracked a few tight postseason races and the 2025 draft order for non-playoff teams.
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AFC playoff picture
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Tight Week 18 races
The regular season is over, and all 14 playoff teams are locked in. But there were some interesting races on Sunday, and we followed three of them. See how the Lions took the NFC's top seed, how the Broncos earned the final AFC wild-card spot and how the Buccaneers won the NFC South.
How the Lions took the NFC's 1-seed
In the final game of Week 18, the Lions earned the No. 1 seed in the NFC and won the NFC North title. They beat the Vikings 31-9 on Sunday night to finish with a 15-2 record. Detroit now gets a first-round bye and home-field advantage through the NFC playoffs. Minnesota, meanwhile, falls to the No. 5 seed as a 14-win wild card and will play the Rams in the first round.
How the Broncos clinched the AFC's 7-seed
The Broncos clinched the final spot in the AFC field, beating the Chiefs Sunday. They made a statement with a 38-0 victory and will now be the No. 7 seed. Denver is set to play the Bills on the road in the wild-card round.
Denver made it interesting, losing in Week 16 and then again in Week 17. And the Dolphins (lost to the Jets) and Bengals (won against the Steelers) were alive until Sunday afternoon. But the Broncos ultimately closed the deal.
How the Bucs won the NFC South
With their 27-19 win over the Saints on Sunday, the Buccaneers are the NFC South champs for a fourth consecutive season. It was dicey for a while, as Tampa Bay had to mount a comeback against New Orleans -- but it pulled it off. The Bucs will now be the 3-seed in the NFC playoffs and play the Commanders in the wild-card round.
The Falcons -- who lost in overtime to the Panthers -- fall out of the playoffs entirely.
Looking Ahead
While 14 teams will ultimately make the playoffs, 18 others start their offseasons at the conclusion of Week 18. Those franchises will soon be making personnel decisions, evaluating their coaching staffs, working the trade market and navigating the free agent pool. But the 2025 NFL draft also lies ahead (April 24 in Green Bay, Wisconsin), and each team will have the chance to land a top prospect in Round 1.
Who is set up to take Colorado's Shedeur Sanders or Travis Hunter? What about Miami's Cam Ward and Penn State's Abdul Carter? Here is the draft order for the league's bottom 18 teams. The Titans officially have the No. 1 pick, followed by the Browns, Giants, Patriots and Jaguars.
Projected 2025 NFL draft order
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Methodology
Playoff probabilities are updated as the games progress, based on ESPN Analytics' live win probabilities and its NFL Football Power Index (FPI) projections. Live in-game win probabilities measure multiple factors, including score, time remaining, field position, down-and-distance, team opponent strength and game site. These live probabilities are used by the FPI's projections, which simulate the season based on each team's strength, schedule and tiebreaking rules. The result is a live representation of a team's various playoff, division and seeding chances, along with an updated projection of the final standings. Those simulations also project the top 18 picks in the 2025 draft.
Edited by Ben Arledge and Dane Beavers.
Produced by ESPN Creative Studio: Dominique DeMoe, Jarret Gabel, Luke Knox, Munehito Sawada, Garrett Siegel and Rachel Weiss.
Illustrations by Josue Evilla. ESPN Analytics: Henry Gargiulo, Chris Harden and Matt Morris.
