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Who's winning the Heisman? For me, it's still Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza. His odds shortened again this week, even on a bye, which tells you the market still sees what the voters have been feeling for two weeks. But here comes Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love, the late-season missile who just made the biggest jump of the season and forced his way into the conversation. The board is moving again, and the narrative is shifting, but if you like Mendoza and want better value than his current price, there's a smarter way to bet him than the outright. Top Heisman Trophy candidatesFernando Mendoza, QB Indiana -130  (last week: -115) Indiana had a bye week and it didn't change anything, because nothing needs to change. Mendoza's price shortened again without playing a snap because the field is proving the same point every Saturday: nobody else has produced a moment big enough to override the one who already has. This is the rare Heisman race in which the leader's absence reinforces his lead. The Big Ten title game is the final checkpoint where Mendoza simply has to avoid the kind of meltdown that rewrites a season's entire emotional arc. Mendoza has confirmed his spot. That's the difference between a statistical favorite and a narrative winner. The voters already saw the moment that defined the year, which means he doesn't need more volume or another highlight. He just needs to stay neutral. As long as Mendoza stays upright, the award is in his hands. Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame +425 (last week +4000) The biggest jump this week -- probably of the season -- was Love's after back-to-back triple-yardage games. Love has now rushed for 100-plus yards in six games this season, including 228 against USC. On paper, the surges make sense. The production is luscious, the highlight runs pop, and Notre Dame keeps winning by margins. This move says more about the other candidates than it does about Love suddenly becoming a real Heisman threat. Love is having a great season, of course. He's explosive, efficient and clearly the engine of Notre Dame's offense right now. Zoom in, and you'll see it's a soft résumé. His best stretch has come against Pitt, Boston College and Syracuse; the latter two are a combined 4-18. The numbers count, but voters notice who you dominated against, not just the box score. Let's compare it to last year's runner-up, Ashton Jeanty. Jeanty had the volume, consistent production each and every week and the sheer workload that forced voters to take him seriously. Love doesn't have that. Love has half the carries, not nearly as many yards or scores and no defining moment that stamps a Heisman campaign. There is an odd trend in his favor, however. Every season ending in a five has been won by a running back. It's quirky, but it speaks to how often chaos years elevate non-quarterbacks. But trends don't override résumés. Could Love slip into the race if Mendoza or Julian Sayin both flatten out and the Big Ten title game turns into a slog? Maybe. The door technically exists because no one has dominated this season. Love is surging, not separating, and that distinction matters. Julian Sayin, QB Ohio State, +425 (last week: +225) Ohio State beat Rutgers 42-9 with Sayin delivering another clinical, but non-memorable performance, finishing 13-for-19 passing for 157 yards with no mistakes. It's really good quarterbacking -- but not Heisman quarterbacking. Sayin can still jump with big performances against Michigan or in the Big Ten title game, but only if those games finally give him what he hasn't had all season -- a defining moment. Sayin needs more than a clean box score and efficiency. He needs a moment. Ohio State is a 9.5-point favorite at Michigan this week. The expectation is that the Buckeyes control the game. If Ohio State wins a standard 27-14 type of script and Sayin goes 21-for-28 for 240 yards, two touchdowns and no picks, that's not shifting minds. For Sayin to matter in this race, Michigan has to make the game uncomfortable where Sayin saves the day. A fourth-quarter drive, a pressure throw, a highlight that locks on broadcasts all weekend. Something that says, "He saved the season. He's the reason Ohio State snapped a four-game losing streak against the Wolverines." But the Big Ten title game is the real shot, the stage where Sayin could really overtake Mendoza. If both teams are undefeated, the championship becomes the de facto Heisman showcase. One last impression. What does decisive look like for Sayin against Indiana? A go-ahead drive, play under pressure that becomes the clip of the night, a throw on the run or cross-body toss that stuns -- something "wow." If Ohio State blows out Indiana, Sayin benefits, but the moment still has to belong to him, not with the defense, not Jeremiah Smith, not the newfound ground game. If the game is close and Sayin becomes the reason Ohio State wins, that's the scenario where he could actually steal it. Week 13 betting thoughtsIf you like Mendoza for the Heisman, back Indiana as an underdog in the Big Ten title game. If you like Sayin for the Heisman, bet Ohio State's passing props against Michigan: yards, completions, longest completion, etc. You can also justify a live bet on Ohio State if Michigan jumps ahead. The only way Sayin gains ground is by authoring a response. A trailing script forces him into the type of pressure throws that voters will remember. Everything Sayin needs is tied to Michigan. If he doesn't pop there, nothing else matters.
If you like Love, you are playing a chaos ticket, so structure it like chaos. Notre Dame travels to Stanford this week. Look for alt rushing yards, 150+ or 175+, Notre Dame team total overs, and even Mendoza plus Sayin unders in the championship matchup. Love can only win if he goes nuclear and the Big Ten title game is a dud. Build your portfolio with derivatives.
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