Value is value, no matter where -- or how -- you find it. And that's what we'll aim to do each week in this space -- find value.
Ben Solak, Seth Walder and Matt Bowen bring different perspectives to how they approach sports betting. Solak leans on his expertise in player evaluation and the X's and O's to find edges, while Walder relies on statistical models to pick out plus-expected value bets. Bowen, a former NFL safety, predicts positive matchups and game winners from tape study and his understanding of the league.
These weekly picks will not be limited to a certain bet type. From spreads and money lines to totals or even defensive player props, a good price might be found anywhere.
Results will be tracked throughout the season, with flat one-unit wagers for each listed bet.
With that, let's dive in to Week 11. Odds are from ESPN BET Sportsbook. 
Note: Defensive prop bets will be added as they become available.
Jump to:
Game bets | Defensive props | Offensive props
Game bets
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos total points UNDER 44.5 (-110)
Bowen: This feels like an old-school matchup, featuring two of the top defenses in the league. Both Denver and Kansas City are allowing just over 17 points per game, while this Broncos unit leads the NFL with 46 sacks, and Denver is holding opposing offenses to a third-down conversion rate of 28.1%. Tough to find points here. Take the under.
Carolina Panthers to cover +3.5 (-110) at Atlanta Falcons
Solak: Two teams coming off brutal losses here. The Falcons lost in overtime against an AFC-leading Indianapolis Colts team -- that's a brutal plane ride back from Germany. Meanwhile, the 5-4 Panthers were thinking about NFC playoff picture when they welcomed the New Orleans Saints to town ... and then went out and lost their 11th consecutive game as a favorite, a repellant streak dating to 2021.
This is a rematch of a Week 3 game in which the Panthers put a 30-0 shellacking on the Falcons in Carolina. The rematch is perhaps the biggest game of Raheem Morris' head coaching career in Atlanta. But the matchup is bad. The Panthers are one of the best rushing teams in football, while the Falcons' defense remains 31st in success rate and 31st in yards after contact per carry. Last time, Chuba Hubbard outcarried Rico Dowdle 17-10. This week, it'll be all Dowdle, who is third in the league in rushing yards over expectation.
Key LB Divine Deablo is out for this game, and it looks like edge rusher Leonard Floyd will also miss this contest. The Panthers have the offense to control this game script and force Michael Penix Jr. into clear passing situations, where he runs very hot and cold. With Jaycee Horn opposite Drake London, Penix's favorite safety valve will likely have a quieter game, too. Bryce Young hasn't been great in his career on the road, but he doesn't need to be in this game for the Panthers to keep it within a field goal.
Miami Dolphins team total OVER 24.5 (+100)
Solak: Under Mike McDaniel, the Dolphins' offense has always been a great bet against truly bad defenses. Take the past few weeks: 2.45 points per drive against the Los Angeles Chargers, who were banged up and lacking a pass rush. Then 0.55 against the Cleveland Browns, an elite group, and 3.40 against the Atlanta Falcons, who cannot defend the run worth a lick. Then 0.55 against the Baltimore Ravens, who bounced back post-bye. And finally 2.73 against the Buffalo Bills, which has been a shaky unit all season.
Enter the Washington Commanders, facing the Dolphins in Madrid in the early-morning window. The Commanders' defense is 30th in EPA per drive and 20th in actual points surrendered per drive. Only the Cincinnati Bengals give up more yards after the catch over expectation, and not even the Bengals give up a higher explosive pass rate. Against a team like the Dolphins, which wants to get speed in space, the Commanders' slow second level is highly liable.
Dan Quinn has taken over the defensive playcalling in Washington, but I don't think a headset change can account for the many personnel deficiencies on the Commanders' defense.
Chargers team total OVER 23.5 (-110)
Bowen: The Chargers have scored over 24 or more points in five straight games, plus I like the matchup versus the Jaguars' defense. Jacksonville is giving up an average of 24.4 points and 252.9 passing yards per game. Lot of zone-heavy schemes, too. I think Justin Herbert plays big here. Take the over.
Tennessee Titans team total UNDER 15.5 (-105)
Solak: The Houston Texans have a truly dominant defensive unit, and against a poor offensive line and overwhelmed rookie quarterback, they simply have too much firepower, even against an offense that is likely returning Calvin Ridley in this game. Among 320 defensive seasons over the past decade, the Texans' 1.44 points per drive surrendered is 13th.
Will the Titans' offense look suddenly improved off the bye? There's a chance Tennessee made good changes, but the Texans' defense currently gets the backup QB bump. Davis Mills is starting again for C.J. Stroud, and defenses know that they need to protect their backup QBs with strong performances, especially as Houston claws its way back into the playoff race. The Texans also ran the ball much better last week against Jacksonville, and if Jeffery Simmons is again out for this game, their slower pace will help our bet get home.
I also like Texans -5.5, as the line has trickled down with the Stroud news. But I think the Titans' team total is safer.
Two-team, 6-point teaser: Chicago Bears +9 at Minnesota Vikings and Seattle Seahawks +9 at Los Angeles Rams
Bowen: Let's move the Bears up to +9 in Minnesota. Ben Johnson's offense has found a rhythm with the run game and defined throws for Caleb Williams, plus defensive coordinator Dennis Allen can mix both coverage and pressure to change the looks for J.J. McCarthy, who has thrown three picks in his first two games since returning from an ankle injury.
In the other matchup, I'm all-in on the play style of this Seattle defense. It's an urgent unit with the speed to fly around. Yes, Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford is playing at an MVP level, but moving the spread to +9, this feels like a safe-enough bet. And I've yet to see a secondary limit Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He's a difference-maker.
Seth Walder's defensive props
Tristan H. Cockcroft explains why Danielle Hunter is worth a look in fantasy IDP formats.
Lions DE Aidan Hutchinson to go UNDER 0.5 sacks (+135)
There is a bit of a disconnect between the perception of Hutchinson and some of his advanced metrics. On one hand, he is second in the NFL in pressures with 33, so that looks like quite the positive. But he also has just an 11.5% pressure rate, which ranks 22nd. His pass rush win rate at edge (11.6%) is even worse relatively, as that ranks 33rd at the position and is below average.
On one hand, Hutchinson is playing a lot, and so that helps him get the quantity of pressures that catches the eye. On the other, his rates suggest he isn't playing at quite the level of other top pass rushers. And when it comes to betting, it's all matters of degrees, since we're forecasting probability. Add in that the Eagles lean run-heavy (they were particularly run-heavy last week, in fact), which could limit the number of Hutchinson's chances, and my model likes his plus-money under. It makes the fair price -104.
Other sack props to consider:
Eagles DT Jalen Carter under 0.5 sacks (-140)
Offensive player props
Matt Bowen breaks down why Caleb Williams has what it takes to continue as a fantasy starting quarterback.
Caleb Williams to go OVER 224.5 passing yards (-115)
Solak: Few quarterbacks in football are throwing the ball more aggressively than Williams, who has taken well to Ben Johnson's offense oriented on shot-play opportunities: 13.7% of Williams passes are thrown 20-plus yards downfield (sixth), and 15.2% of his attempts end in an explosive gain (ninth).
The recent way to beat the Vikings' defense is by going deep. Since the Week 6 bye, according to Next Gen Stats, the Vikings have allowed eight of nine deep balls to be completed for 319 yards and five touchdowns. On the season, Minnesota is allowing a 63.2% completion percentage on throws 20-plus yards downfield, which is the worst mark in football. Not a lot of passing attacks have the time to get downfield, but Williams is an elite sack avoider and Johnson schemes up max protection shots as much as any other coordinator in football. The Bears will test the Vikings deep.
Williams OVER 0.5 INTs (+125)
Walder: All else being equal, the probability of a quarterback throwing an interception in a game is very close to 50-50. There are factors that can move us off of that mark, however. Williams, for example, has a 1.2% interception rate, which is below the average of 1.7%. That reduces the probability of a pick in our forecast. But another, which mitigates the first, is that the Bears are light underdogs to the Vikings. There's no reason to think Williams won't attempt a normal amount of pass attempts, either. Put it all together and my model is back to very close to 50-50, making the fair odds here -103. That makes this price, in the model's mind, a value.
Josh Allen to go OVER 219.5 passing yards (-115)
Bowen: Allen has thrown for over 270 yards in each of his last two games, and now he gets a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense allowing an average of 233.2 yards passing per game (24th in the league). Allen will have opportunities to target Tampa Bay's three-deep zone coverages on Sunday. The over hits here.
Patrick Mahomes 5+ rushing attempts (-140)
Bowen: The Broncos rank second in the NFL with a pressure rate of 36.8%, and that will force Mahomes to move and extend plays outside of the pocket. Mahomes has five or more carries in five of his games played this season, and let's remember that QB kneel-downs at the end of the half/game count, too.
Baker Mayfield to go OVER 1.5 touchdown passes (+135)
Bowen: Let's take Mayfield's aggressive throwing mentality versus a zone-heavy Bills defense that lacks team speed in the secondary. Mayfield had three touchdown passes in the Week 10 loss to the New England Patriots, and he has six games this season with multiple scoring throws. Look for Mayfield to take some shots from the high red zone/strike zone on Sunday.
Marcus Mariota to go UNDER 27.5 pass attempts (-125)
Walder: The Commanders have been a pass-heavy team when Jayden Daniels has been on the field this season, sporting a plus-2% pass rate over expectation, which would rank sixth-highest in the league. But when Mariota plays, it's a completely different ballgame. The Commanders drop to negative-9% in the same category, making them more run-heavy than every team in the league besides the Carolina Panthers and New York Jets. The Commanders should be able to have success running the ball on the Miami Dolphins, too. Washington ranks second in yards after contact per carry (2.5), while the Dolphins defense allows 2.2 yards after contact per carry (fourth most).
Trevor Lawrence to go UNDER 209.5 passing yards (-115)
Solak: The Chargers' defense is a great one for passing unders, and the Jaguars are extremely banged up across the offense. The following offensive players have had limited or no participation in practices this week: OL Robert Hainsey, OL Anton Harrison, OL Ezra Cleveland, OL Patrick Mekari, OL Wyatt Milum, WR Brian Thomas Jr., WR Parker Washington, TE Brenton Strange, TE Hunter Long. And that's with WR Travis Hunter already out.
I expect the Jaguars to lean heavily on the ground game against a revitalized Chargers pass rush, and I think we could see some short offensive fields for Jacksonville, as the Chargers' terrible offensive line creates sack-fumble and interception opportunities. On the other hand, the Chargers should be able to run the ball fairly well, limiting the Jaguars' total offensive possessions.
Daniel Dopp on Jahmyr Gibbs' big Week 10 performance with Dan Campbell calling plays
Jahmyr Gibbs to go OVER 63.5 rushing yards (-110)
Bowen: Gibbs rushed for a season-best 142 yards (on 15 carries) in Week 10 with Dan Campbell calling the plays, and he has over 63 yards on the ground in three of his last four. Look for Campbell to get Gibbs on the edges on the Eagles' defense. Pin and pull schemes that create open runways.
Saquon Barkley to go OVER 16.5 receiving yards (-120)
Bowen: Barkley has produced 24 or more receiving yards, with at least three receptions, in each of his last two games. And the Lions are allowing an average of 21.9 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs. Plus, with Barkley's ball-carrier vision in the open field, he can hit this number on one screen or swing concept.
RJ Harvey to go OVER 15.5 receiving yards (-120)
Solak: This is a surprising line to me. On the season, Harvey has 25 catches for 175 yards -- that's 17.5 yards per game. The 8-2 Broncos have often led this season or played on neutral scripts this season, which minimizes opportunities for RB receptions. As 3.5-point underdogs, the Broncos are more likely to trail in this game, which creates pass-catching opportunities for the back. Meanwhile, the Chiefs' defense is allowing 1.51 yards per route run to opposing backs, which is the third-highest number among league defenses.
It's likely that the shift in the Broncos' backfield is the culprit for the surprising line here. With J.K. Dobbins injured and potentially destined for injured reserve, the market expects Harvey to play more early downs and receive more handoffs. Even if Harvey sees all of the handoff volume go his way -- and not toward third-down back Tyler Badie -- Dobbins is still leaving 32.3 snaps per game up for grabs. It is unreasonable to expect Harvey's route participation to go down if he sees another 10 or 15, maybe even 20 snaps.
Harvey has been an unreliable runner this year (32% success rate). If the Broncos are sharp, they'll use his increase in snaps to get him designed touches out of the backfield in the screen and swing game. I'll be playing alts on Harvey's receiving yardage line as well.
Chase Brown to go OVER 3.5 receptions (+100)
Solak: The Bengals' offense shredded the Steelers in their Week 7 upset. Brown was not heavily featured in the passing game in that one (two catches on four targets for -8 yards), but you have to figure the Steelers will have a more disruptive game plan for Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins in the rematch. If the Steelers defense does their job, they'll funnel targets Brown's way.
Even if they do not, the Bengals led as often as they trailed against the Steelers in the first match. As 5.5-point underdogs, it's still reasonable to expect them to trail for a larger portion of the game, which encourages RB targets. As we saw in the marathon game against the Chicago Bears, in which Brown had eight receptions on 14 targets, the Bengals' passing pace in the second half can get us home in a hurry.
Field Yates explains why RJ Harvey moves into his top-20 running backs with J.K. Dobbins nursing an injury.
Rome Odunze to go OVER 56.5 receiving yards (-115)
Bowen: Odunze has at least 86 yards receiving in two of his last three games, and the Bears can create opportunities here versus Minnesota on play-action throws for Caleb Williams. Think of the in-breaking concepts, in addition to the second-reaction targets when Williams ejects from the pocket.
Travis Kelce to go OVER 43.5 receiving yards (-115)
Bowen: Kelce has produced over 44 yards receiving in eight of nine games played this season, so let's stay with the Chiefs tight end again. Yes, Andy Reid will have answers to scheme throws to Kelce versus the Broncos' defense, but I'm also taking this bet because of the out-of-structure throws from Mahomes, which create catch-and-run chances for the tight end.
Harold Fannin Jr. to score Anytime TD (+500)
Bowen: Let's take a shot on Fannin to find the end zone versus the Ravens. Fannin has 10 receptions and a touchdown over his last two games. Look for a boot concept here in the low red zone.