The second week of the College Football Playoff Rankings dropped, and for the most part, it was business as usual. The top four -- Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M and Alabama -- all held their ground, which feels (mostly) right.
Nothing that happened over the weekend justified a shake-up, and that's fine. The teams at the top continue to play like it, separating themselves with stability and maturity more than flash.
If anything, this week was a reminder that chaos hasn't yet found the playoff picture. The real movement came just outside that group, where Texas Tech continues to climb. Up two spots to No. 6, the Red Raiders are finally starting to get some national recognition, but not enough in my eyes. I'll explain why.
All odds by ESPN BET
How did Texas move up in the rankings?
To make College Football Playoff: Yes +180 / No -240
Texas moved up from No. 11 to No. 10 -- despite having a loss to a 3-6 Florida team -- and it doesn't make much sense. The odds to make or miss the playoff haven't changed so instead of doubling down on a futures ticket that says Texas will miss, there's another way to fade the Longhorns.
Bet against them on the moneyline this week versus Georgia (-215), and if Georgia wins (as I expect), roll those winnings over on Texas A&M to beat Texas in the finale.
It's essentially a moneyline rollover parlay that mirrors the "Texas to miss the playoff" position, but with a better payout and the flexibility to stop after the first leg if needed. Texas has shown flashes of potential, but their inconsistency, two losses and tough closing stretch point to one outcome: being outside the playoff picture. My preseason stance does not change.
Texas Tech getting some respect
Odds to make College Football Playoff: Yes -900 / No +550 | Odds to win Big 12: -300
Up two spots to No. 6, the Red Raiders are still undervalued in perception. I think they're the fourth-best team in the country. This isn't about schedule strength or fluky game flow, it's about dominance through consistency.
Their pass rush is the most disruptive unit in college football, and disruption travels. It doesn't matter who they play, this front has shown the same relentless pressure every single week, from opening kickoff to now.
That's the mark of a real contender. We already have them locked in at better numbers, so there's no betting angle left. But if there were odds for a team to make the final four of the playoff, I'd take that. Texas Tech's defense is beyond good; it's built for late-December football.
How to play Texas Tech: Opponent team total under. The Red Raiders have allowed just 15 touchdowns all season, only 11 in the red zone. This defense pressures, finishes, and denies points. With UCF and West Virginia left, they should dominate again.
Betting consideration: Jacksonville State to win C-USA (+360)
Let's step outside the Power Four bubble for a second. Everyone's watching the Big Ten, the SEC, the playoff picture, but value doesn't always live under the brightest lights. Sometimes, it's tucked away in Conference USA, where Jacksonville State sits as the third favorite to win the title, behind Western Kentucky and Kennesaw State.
Here's the setup: Jacksonville faces Kennesaw this weekend as a +140 underdog, and the winner of that game will likely control the conference. If Jacksonville wins, they move to 6-0 in C-USA play and close the season at home against Western Kentucky. So, in essence, backing Jacksonville to win the conference is a two-game parlay: beat Kennesaw this week, beat WKU to close.
The logic is simple. Both games are winnable (plus FIU Panthers), and the future gives us exposure to both without having to reinvest week to week. Jacksonville is physical, run-heavy, methodical and their defense has been one of the most consistent units in the conference. Kennesaw and WKU are both more one-dimensional, and Jacksonville's ability to control tempo and win the trenches travels well.
We've built a strong futures portfolio in the bigger conferences, but sometimes it pays to scan the smaller boards. Conference USA might not get prime-time attention, but the opportunity is there. The Gamecocks are live, the number is generous, and the path is clean-ish. Jacksonville State +360 to win C-USA is worth considering.