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ESPN Eliminator Challenge is one of the most fun games to play this NFL season. The rules are simple: pick one team, and as long as they win (or tie), you advance to the next round. If they lose, you are out. The caveat is you cannot pick the same team twice. The theme for 2025 has been the lack of eliminations. Through four weeks, only one underdog of at least six points has won outright. That is the fewest through Week 4 since 1979. Nearly 400,000 Eliminator Challenge entries remain intact entering Week 5, with only 64% of the field knocked out. In the big Circa Millions pool, only 34% of the field is eliminated. That means if you have saved some of the elite NFL teams -- like this column has recommended -- you are in better shape compared to your competitors. However, the top pick in Week 5 is a team already used in this space, the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals host the Tennessee Titans, who grade out as the worst team in the NFL according to ESPN Analytics, so there is no better spot to use Arizona than now. Instead, if you are following the recommended plays in this article each week, we will finally burn a top team with the Detroit Lions. They are the biggest betting favorites of the week -- their largest road favorite role since 1973 -- and they also have the highest win probability according to models by both ESPN Analytics and Mike Clay. After the Lions and Cardinals, there is a big drop-off to the rest of the potential options.
Mike Clay's Eliminator Challenge cheat sheet
1. Arizona Cardinals (vs Tennessee Titans)This might be the easiest No. 1 choice in this column all season. Every time the Titans go on the road against a competent opponent, that opponent is a strong pick. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have virtually no future value with Mike Clay's model making them underdogs in each of their next nine games. The Cardinals are the second-biggest favorites of the week behind the Lions, according to the betting market, Clay and ESPN Analytics. If you still have the Cardinals available, it's likely now or never. Mike Clay chance to win: 83% ESPN Analytics chance to win: 74% ESPN BET line: Cardinals -7.5 (-450 moneyline) Eliminator Challenge: 18% selected
2. Detroit Lions (at Cincinnati Bengals)The Bengals' rating in the market continues to free-fall after a second straight blowout loss since Joe Burrow was lost with a toe injury. Even with Detroit having to go on the road, this still grades out as its easiest game all season according to Mike Clay and its second easiest according to ESPN Analytics. The Lions have one more easy matchup in Week 12 against the Giants, and given their team quality, they retain a lot of future value. However, they have the fourth-toughest remaining schedule according to ESPN Analytics, so this is one of the best chances to use them. Mike Clay chance to win: 92% ESPN Analytics chance to win: 81% ESPN BET line: Lions -10.5 (-600 moneyline) Eliminator Challenge: 16% selected
3. Los Angeles Rams (vs San Francisco 49ers)The 49ers typically aren't a team to fade in Eliminator, but with Brock Purdy, Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall all ruled out, they are now one of the biggest underdogs of the week. And given the late injury news, their Eliminator ownership will likely remain low, especially with this game falling on Thursday night when other players are still finalizing their picks. The Rams have one prime matchup in Week 9 at home against the Saints, but that's the only time all season they host a bottom-10 team. As a result, the Rams become an appealing option as a big favorite with low ownership and very little future value. Mike Clay chance to win: 65% ESPN Analytics chance to win: 56% ESPN BET line: Rams -6.5 (-290 moneyline) Eliminator Challenge: 3% selected
4. Indianapolis Colts (vs Las Vegas Raiders)Mike Clay's model and the betting odds both have the Colts with the third-most win equity this week. The Colts have only one more game all season where they are projected to be favored by this much (Week 8 vs. Titans). In two home games, the Colts have yet to have a turnover or a punt. No other team in the Super Bowl era has done that in back-to-back home games. While that streak likely ends this week, the Raiders rank 29th in offensive EPA per play this season, so they should have trouble keeping up with an efficient Colts offense. Mike Clay chance to win: 76% ESPN Analytics chance to win: 62% ESPN BET line: Colts -6.5 (-300 moneyline) Eliminator Challenge: 13% selected
5. Minnesota Vikings (vs Cleveland Browns in London)While the Vikings are only 3.5-point favorites at ESPN BET, they are the fourth-biggest favorites this week according to ESPN Analytics. It's also their easiest game the rest of the season according to both models. Typically, a team like that would pop as a strong pick. However, the Vikings are looking like an early chalk pick in ESPN Eliminator Challenge, which would destroy most of their value. But if that projected ownership starts to decline like I expect it to, the Vikings become a reasonable pick, especially in higher-stakes contests. Mike Clay chance to win: 67% ESPN Analytics chance to win: 64% ESPN BET line: Vikings -3.5 (-195 moneyline) Eliminator Challenge: 16% selected
6. Buffalo Bills (vs New England Patriots)Once again, the Bills have one of the highest win probabilities of the week, but once again, I recommend saving them. No team has more future value than the Bills, as this is their seventh-easiest game remaining according to Mike Clay's model. Assuming Josh Allen stays healthy, there will be plenty of weeks later in the season where you will be thrilled to have the Bills still available when most of your competition has already used them. Mike Clay chance to win: 74% ESPN Analytics chance to win: 68% ESPN BET line: Bills -7.5 (-425 moneyline) Eliminator Challenge: 5% selected
Top picks used: Projected Path Week 6: Green Bay Packers (vs Bengals) Week 7: Chicago Bears (vs Saints) Week 8: Indianapolis Colts (vs Titans) Week 9: Los Angeles Rams (vs Saints) Week 10: Buffalo Bills (at Dolphins) Week 11: Pittsburgh Steelers (vs Bengals) Week 12: Baltimore Ravens (vs Jets) Week 13: Philadelphia Eagles (vs Bears) Week 14: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs Saints) Week 15: San Francisco 49ers (vs Titans) Week 16: Kansas City Chiefs (at Titans) Week 17: Los Angeles Chargers (vs Texans) Week 18: Jacksonville Jaguars (vs Titans)
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