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Value is value, no matter where -- or how -- you find it. And that's what we'll aim to do each week in this space -- find value. Ben Solak is out this week, so Matt Bowen is filling in with his own unique style. Bowen and Seth Walder bring different perspectives to how they approach sports betting. Bowen, a former NFL safety, predicts positive matchups and game winners from tape study and his understanding of the league. Walder relies on statistical models to pick out plus-expected value bets. These weekly picks will not be limited to a certain bet type. From spreads and money lines to totals or even defensive player props, a good price might be found anywhere. Results will be tracked throughout the season, with flat one-unit wagers for each listed bet. We'll try to keep the momentum going coming off a big week (Walder: 17-4, +13.1 units; Bowen: 6-1, +5.2 units). With that, let's dive into Week 5. As always, odds are from ESPN BET Sportsbook.  Note: Defensive prop bets will be added as they become available. Jump to:
Game bets | Defensive props | Offensive props  Game betsWashington Commanders at Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 (-125) Jayden Daniels is expected to play this week for Washington, but I'm still sticking with L.A. at home, given the matchups Jim Harbaugh's team can create in the pass game. With Quentin Johnston, Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen, quarterback Justin Herbert can target all three levels of the field against a Commanders defense that has looked shaky on tape, giving up an average of 8.1 yards per pass attempt. -- Bowen Dallas Cowboys team total OVER 24.5 points (-115) Dak Prescott is playing really good football. The pocket movement. Seeing it fast. Throwing with location. Aggressive down the field. Prescott is completing 72.9% of his passes and has two games with 300 or more yards. I'll take that versus a New York Jets defense still searching for an identity heading into Week 5, while giving up 30 points a game (28th in the league) and 7.2 yards per pass attempt (24th). And Dallas can run the ball with Javonte Williams, too (5.0 YPC). Bet the over. -- Bowen Two-team, 6-point teaser (-111): Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10 at Seattle Seahawks and Detroit Lions -4 at Cincinnati Bengals Let's tease the spread up to 10 points for the Bucs on a West Coast trip to Seattle. Baker Mayfield is playing at an extremely high level, throwing for multiple touchdowns in three of four games played this season. And his second reaction ability as a runner extends drives. Yes, running back Bucky Irving is down, but Rachaad White can play a dual-threat role in the Tampa Bay backfield. Plus, I'm betting on Todd Bowles' defense, which owns a pressure rate of 35.7% (seventh highest), to speed up the clock for Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold here. -- Bowen On the other side, we can tease the Lions' spread down for Sunday's game in Cincinnati. I'm in on Detroit quarterback Jared Goff this week versus the Cincy secondary (more on that later). And I really like the Lions' defensive matchup against Bengals quarterback Jake Browning. In his two starts, Browning has been sacked six times, plus he has an off-target rate of 18.8% with two picks. Detroit can heat up the pocket in this one while playing opportunistic defense to force turnovers. That means short fields for Goff and an explosive Lions offense.
Seth Walder's defensive propsYaya Diaby, OLB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers to go OVER 0.5 sacks (+250) Diaby has just one sack on the season but he has some very promising underlying numbers. He has a 20% pass rush win rate (above-average for the position) which is partially fueled by an elite get off: Diaby is crossing the line of scrimmage in 0.73 seconds, fourth-fastest in the NFL among players with at least 50 pass rushes (per NFL Next Gen Stats). This is the profile of a player we absolutely want to bet on because he's likely to be underrated by the odds -- which Diaby is. My model makes Diaby +168 to go over half a sack. Josh Sweat, OLB, Arizona Cardinals to go OVER 0.5 sacks (+140) With Sweat, both the advanced metrics and the sacks have been there. He's recorded a sack in his last three games and is boasting a 29% pass rush win rate at edge that puts him tied for fourth at the position with Will Anderson Jr. on the season. Now he gets one of the cushiest assignments in 2025: trying to sack Cam Ward, the rookie quarterback playing behind a struggling offensive line and sporting a massive 11% sack rate (third-worst only behind Lamar Jackson and Carson Wentz) this year. If Sweat were a bigger name these odds might be shorter, and they should be! I have this over at +101. Other sack bets to consider Bryan Bresee, DT, New Orleans Saints under 0.5 sacks (-150) DeForest Buckner, DT, Indianapolis Colts under 0.5 sacks (-220) Arden Key, OLB, Tennessee Titans over 0.5 sacks (+360) Leonard Williams, DE, Seattle Seahawks under 0.5 sacks (-220) Joseph Ossai, DE, Cincinnati Bengals over 0.5 sacks (+400)
Pete Werner, LB, Saints to go UNDER 8.5 tackles + assists (-140) Don't let the -140 scare you off. This is a very favorable price. We're probably getting this line set at 8.5 because, through four games, Werner has gone over 8.5 tackles + assists twice. But extend our lens a bit longer, and we see that's a mirage. Since the start of last season Werner has started 17 games, and has gone over 8.5 tackles + assists in just five of those contests. Plus, while he played over 90% of the snaps in Week 1, his playing time has been declining with each week (70% in Week 4). In addition, while the Saints are usually heavy underdogs who are expected to see a heavy dose of opponent runs due to game script, no such issues exist for us here: the Saints are 2.5-point favorites over the Giants. Cody Barton, LB, Titans to go OVER 7.5 tackles + assists (+115) Sometimes it's as straight-forward as this: game script dictates heavy underdog linebackers will get lots of tackles and heavy favorite linebackers will not. Sure, there are some factors working against us here. Barton has record a tackle on 17% of opponent run plays and 12% of opponent plays overall -- both a little below-average for an off-ball linebacker. And the Cardinals lean pass-heavy, ranking fifth-highest in pass rate over expectation. But neither of that is enough, in my model's opinion, to overcome the fact that Arizona is likely to be leading by a lot and running the ball a ton late, creating plenty of tackle opportunities for Barton. And the line is hardly overwhelming: getting +115 for a linebacker who has yet to miss a snap this season to go over 7.5 tackles is a nice payoff for just a meager ask, considering the spread. Other tackle bets to consider Jeremy Chinn, S, Las Vegas Raiders to go under 7.5 tackles + assists (-145) Derwin James Jr., S, Los Angeles Chargers to go under 7.5 tackles + assists (+100) Robert Spillane, LB, New England Patriots to go under 9.5 tackles + assists (-135)
Offensive player propsQuinshon Judkins to go OVER 72.5 rushing yards (-110) Judkins has rushed for 82 or more yards in each of his past two games. I really like the tape on the rookie from Ohio State. The contact balance, zone vision, short-area burst -- that works in Kevin Stefanski's run game. Plus, with rookie quarterback Dillon Gabriel making his first pro start, this feels like a run-heavy script for the Browns against a Minnesota Vikings defense surrendering 130.3 rush yards per game (24th). -- Bowen Jonathan Taylor to go OVER 109.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115) Taylor is averaging 131.8 total yards per game this season, and he has at least two receptions in three of them. We know Taylor will see volume on the ground in Shane Steichen's offense (19.3 carries per game), and the explosive-play ability (nine rushes of 10 or more yards) opens the door for chunk gains. And Taylor has already produced 113 yards receiving. Swings and screens. Take the over versus the Las Vegas Raiders' defense. -- Bowen Breece Hall to go OVER 3.5 receptions (Even) Heading into this year, no team's defense had played more than 78% zone coverage through the first four weeks of a season since our coverage data began in 2017. The 2025 Dallas Cowboys saw that record and decided to smash it. They've played 84% zone so far this year. What does that have to do with Hall? It's the same angle we've been hitting all year: Running backs catch passes almost twice as often when playing against zone coverage compared to man. And my theory is that that is not fully baked into the prop lines. So far, it has been working. -- Walder Jared Goff to record 250+ passing yards (+130) Goff has eclipsed the 250-yard passing mark just once this season (Week 2 versus the Chicago Bears), but I'll take the matchup on Sunday against a Bengals defense allowing 262 yards passing per game (30th). Look for Detroit to have its zone-beaters ready (Cover 2, Cover 3), while Goff can deliver the catch-and-run throws to Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams when he gets single-high man. -- Bowen Justin Herbert to go UNDER 35.5 pass attempts (Even) The run-pass split story of the year has been the Los Angeles Chargers, who shockingly lead the league in pass rate over expectation at plus-8%. But there are two sides to a pass rate story, because although the offense is the one literally selecting whether to run or pass on a given play, the defense plays a role too -- potentially encouraging one option or another through its personnel, alignment and various strengths or weaknesses. And that's relevant in this game, because the Washington Commanders' defense has the third-lowest pass rate over expectation against them (minus-8%). My model likes this under without even being explicitly aware that the Chargers are without both of their starting tackles, which makes me like this bet even more. -- Walder Chris Olave to record 90+ receiving yards (+425) Olave has had so-so results thus far this year (185 yards across four games), but some of his underlying numbers are pretty exceptional. He's running a route on a high 88% of New Orleans Saints dropbacks and is getting a ton of attention from Spencer Rattler, earning targets on 30% of his routes. That's the fifth-highest rate in the league among wide receivers with at least 80 routes run this year! Where he is underperforming is converting those targets into receptions; he has a minus-7% catch rate over expectation. There's good reason to think that regresses back up to the mean, however. Olave's career average in that category is plus-1% and Rattler's completion percentage over expectation in general this season has been plus-2%. -- Walder Jakobi Meyers to record 80+ receiving yards (+200) Meyers' 24% target rate and 1.9 yards per route run are solid, yet hardly exceptional numbers. But one way he makes up for that is almost always being on a route when the Raiders drop back to pass -- 94% of the time, in fact, the third-highest rate among wide receivers. Meyers normally lines up in the slot, which does mean he should face his fair share of solid slot corner Kenny Moore II, though Moore has been targeted a fairly high 21% of the time and the Colts are allowing 36% of targets against them to slot players, an above average rate. Plus, Indianapolis' defense induces the eighth-highest pass rate over expectation against them. None of these single numbers scream over, but when combined with Meyers' median receiving yards prop (60.5 yards), my model sees value in the 80+ number. -- Walder Jake Ferguson to go OVER 5.5 receptions (+105) Ferguson has totaled at least seven receptions in each of his past three games. He can stretch the seams, but the majorly of his production has been on underneath throws from Dak Prescott. Ferguson is a zone outlet here, which means high-percentage targets to cash in on this week. -- Bowen Jameson Williams longest reception OVER 25 yards (+120) Williams has caught just three of 11 targets over his past two games, but the Lions have made a real effort to get him going on vertical throws. Last week, in the win over the Browns, Williams saw four targets on throws of 25 or more air yards. Think of schemed shot plays here on deep balls to the third level of the field. And Williams gets a much more positive matchup this Sunday versus Cincinnati. -- Bowen
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