ESPN Eliminator Challenge is one of the most fun and simple games to play this NFL season. The rules are simple: pick one team, and as long as they win (or tie), you advance to the next round. If they lose, you are out. The caveat is you cannot pick the same team twice.
It's been a historic run for heavy favorites to start 2025, leading to very few eliminated teams. For the first time in the Super Bowl era (since 1966), there have been no favorites of at least four points fall in the first two weeks (12-0). Compare that to last year when nearly 60% of entrants were knocked out in the first two weeks, with seven-point favorites going 0-3 outright.
The favorites look even better on paper in Week 3 than in the first two weeks. Six teams could close as 6-point favorites after there were only five in the first two weeks combined. The Buffalo Bills are the biggest favorites of the week, but with so many strong options and the Bills looking like the most-selected team, saving them for later seems prudent. The Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Kansas City Chiefs and Green Bay Packers are all favored by around a touchdown and all are great picks. Given the lack of eliminations so far, I prefer to break ties in favor of the lesser teams, especially in larger pools that could last all 18 weeks. That leaves the Seahawks narrowly as the top recommended pick this week.
Mike Clay's Eliminator Challenge cheat sheet
1. Seattle Seahawks (vs New Orleans Saints)
The Saints on the road against any competent opponent will be a constant theme of Eliminator recommendations. They are No 31 in ESPN's FPI rankings, ahead of only the Tennessee Titans, and they have never won in eight career Spencer Rattler starts. While the betting market is higher on the Seahawks in this game than both Mike Clay and ESPN Analytics, the Seahawks don't have a single home game the rest of the season against a bottom-10 team, so they have virtually no future value.
Mike Clay chance to win: 70%
ESPN Analytics chance to win: 65%
ESPN BET line: Seahawks -7.5 (-380 moneyline)
Eliminator Challenge: 16% selected
2. Green Bay Packers (at Cleveland Browns)
The Packers are the second-safest pick this week combining all the models, behind only Buffalo. While they retain a significant amount of future value as the new NFC favorites, they have fewer appealing games than the Bills, which is why they are ranked higher. This is a matchup of a top-5 team against a bottom-5 team, and it isn't overly chalky, so the Packers are a strong option in Week 3.
Mike Clay chance to win: 81%
ESPN Analytics chance to win: 71%
ESPN BET line: Packers -7.5 (-450 moneyline)
Eliminator Challenge: 16% selected
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs New York Jets)
While the Jets offense showed signs of life in Week 1 against Pittsburgh, it completely fell apart in Week 2 against the Bills. Meanwhile, the defense is also a mess, ranking 28th in defensive EPA per play. Tyrod Taylor might not be much of a downgrade on Justin Fields, but it's unlikely he can win a shootout against Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers. Even with mounting offensive injuries, the Buccaneers rank fifth in offensive EPA per play through two weeks and they should score enough to beat the Jets in their home opener.
Mike Clay chance to win: 76%
ESPN Analytics chance to win: 72%
ESPN BET line: Buccaneers -6.5 (-280 moneyline)
Eliminator Challenge: 10% selected
4. Kansas City Chiefs (at New York Giants)
Though the Chiefs are off to an 0-2 start, the Giants are a big step down in class from the Los Angeles Chargers and Philadelphia Eagles. The Giants are the second-lowest rated team the Chiefs will play the rest of the season, only ahead of the Titans (Week 16). Those two are the only bottom 10 teams the Chiefs play all season according to ESPN Analytics. Patrick Mahomes is 62-7 in his career when at least a five-point favorite, and given their 0-2 start, don't expect the Chiefs to take the Giants lightly.
Mike Clay chance to win: 64%
ESPN Analytics chance to win: 65%
ESPN BET line: Chiefs -6.5 (-290 moneyline)
Eliminator Challenge: 10% selected
5. Buffalo Bills (vs Miami Dolphins)
The Bills are the biggest favorite of the week, and it's their second-largest projected favorite role of the season, only behind next week against the Saints at home. But after this week, the Bills still play the Saints, Jets, Panthers, Browns, Bengals, Patriots (twice) and the Dolphins again. Both ESPN Analytics and Mike Clay's model projected the Bills as the most likely team to win in each of the next three weeks starting this week. They are among the top three favorites in eight of their last 15 games. So there will be many opportunities to use the Bills, and if you save them now, fewer competitors will be able to pick them later when you may need them.
Mike Clay chance to win: 90%
ESPN Analytics chance to win: 75%
ESPN BET line: Bills -11.5 (-900 moneyline)
Eliminator Challenge: 27% selected
6. Indianapolis Colts (at Tennessee Titans)
The Colts check a lot of boxes for a pick this week. ESPN Analytics and Mike Clay both have the Colts as similarly-sized favorites to the Seahawks, the top pick this week. Both models have this as their second-easiest game of the season, only behind their home game against Tennessee in Week 8. Plus, they are going to be selected at a very small rate in pools. If you can stomach taking Daniel Jones in a road division game, the Colts are an under-the-radar option.
Mike Clay chance to win: 69%
ESPN Analytics chance to win: 65%
ESPN BET line: Colts -3.5 (-195 moneyline)
Eliminator Challenge: 5% selected
Teams used:
Denver Broncos (Week 1)
Arizona Cardinals (Week 2)