The Group of 5 always offers strong betting value, and 2025 is no different. We've already previewed the Mountain West and MAC, but the Sun Belt, American and Conference USA also feature teams with clear paths to success, as well as programs in transition that open the door for win-total plays and futures.
The Sun Belt is as wide open as it has ever been, with James Madison steady at the top, Louisiana and Georgia Southern primed to contend, and Old Dominion rising behind a star quarterback.
In the American, Memphis could take a step back after losing most of its production, while Army's continuity and defense make it a reliable over play.
Conference USA sets up with Liberty as the clear favorite behind a soft schedule, while Kennesaw State continues to struggle adjusting to FBS.
Here's a look at the bets to make for these three conferences in 2025.
If there's one conference I'm always circling early, it's the "Fun Belt." The Sun Belt gives us chaos, character and just enough variance to find value year after year.
James Madison is still the most complete team top to bottom, Louisiana feels like the quietest eight-win machine in the country, and Georgia Southern might light up the scoreboard more than anyone in the Group of Five. Toss in a rising Old Dominion squad with a star quarterback and the usual rollercoaster that is Coastal Carolina and App State in transition, and you've got yourself a conference where the margins are razor thin but the betting angles are strong.
Louisiana is one of the few Sun Belt teams with a clear identity and a manageable path to eight wins. Quarterback Walker Howard, a former LSU and Ole Miss transfer, has all the tools to thrive in this system, and he's supported by a strong run game led by Bill Davis and Zylan Perry. The defense loses key contributors, especially at corner and linebacker, but lineman Jordan Lawson anchors a front that should remain disruptive.
Head coach Michael Desormeaux has quietly guided this team to a 10-win season in 2024, and with Texas State coming to Lafayette, the West runs through them. Even with regression, the structure is solid. If Howard delivers, this team should comfortably clear 7.5 wins. Louisiana's +700 futures to win the Sun Belt make a compelling wager with high upside with relative value, even as the second favorite.
Georgia Southern OVER 7.5 wins (+120) 
This could be a fun team to watch with all the offensive firepower and a favorable schedule in the back half of the season. Quarterback JC French returns after throwing for 2,831 yards and 17 touchdowns last season, and he's backed by one of the Sun Belt's top offensive lines along with standout receivers Dalen Cobb and Josh Dallas.
Head coach Clay Helton has built an identity around tempo and balance, and with a stable of proven skill players, the Eagles should be one of the league's highest-scoring teams. The defense remains a concern --114th in total defense in 2024 and losing leading tackler Marques Watson-Trent to Nebraska -- but key returners like LB Davon Gilmore and DB Chance Gamble give coordinator Brandon Bailey something to build on. If Georgia Southern can survive its early road tests (Fresno State, USC and James Madison), the back half opens the door to a nine-win regular season.
Old Dominion OVER 6.5 wins (+105)
Old Dominion could be sneaky good. Sophomore quarterback Colton Joseph is the engine of this offense. He tossed 22 touchdowns as a freshman, showing poise and mobility in a system built to stretch defenses. Head coach Ricky Rahne finally has a potential star under center, and with All-American linebacker Jason Henderson back from a redshirt season, the defense has legitimate bite, especially on the front seven.
The Monarchs were 3-6 in one-score games last season, an indication that with minor improvements in execution and health, they can flip tight losses into wins. The caveat is that the Monarchs lost most of their receiving production and face a tough schedule that includes road games at Indiana to open and then James Madison, but the combination of returning trench talent and quarterback upside makes this a live team to go bowling and possibly be a surprise contender in the East.
App State UNDER 5.5 wins (+140)
App State feels like its in full reset. New head coach Dowell Loggains, fresh off two years at South Carolina and a long NFL stint, inherits a gutted roster with only one offensive starter returning. There's hope in the quarterback room with transfers JJ Kohl (Iowa State) and AJ Swann (LSU), but the offensive line is paper thin and the defense, after giving up 32.9 points per game in conference games (third most), returns little up front.
Even with a soft home schedule, the Mountaineers have tough road games at Boise State, Old Dominion and James Madison. I wanted to include a trip to Boone in my dream road game lineup this year, but with expectations this low, I just couldn't justify it.
How to bet the American Athletic Conference
The AAC might look wide open in 2025, but Memphis and Army are heading into the season with very different outlooks. Memphis is facing a near-complete reset on both sides of the ball after losing most of its offensive production and defensive core from back-to-back 10-win seasons. Nevada transfer Brendon Lewis gives the Tigers a new dual-threat wrinkle at quarterback, but shifting the scheme to fit his style comes with growing pains.
Army, meanwhile, enters with far more stability. The defense remains one of the league's best, and while replacing Bryson Daily is no small task, senior Dewayne Coleman's fit within the Black Knights' option-based system keeps their identity intact. Two teams, two very different paths, but both shape how the top of the AAC race could unfold.
Memphis UNDER 8.5 wins (-140)
This is a full rebuild on both sides. Memphis enters the season with one of the lowest returning production rates in the country and has to replace nearly every key contributor from its 21-win run over the last two seasons.
Lewis was named the starting quarterback, giving the Tigers a more mobile, dual-threat option than Seth Henigan. At Nevada last year, Lewis threw for 2,290 yards and 16 touchdowns in 2024 while rushing for 775 yards and eight more scores. The problem is that Memphis is shifting its offensive identity to fit his skill set. That transition comes with risk, especially with an entirely new receiving corps and a thin quarterback room behind him.
Defensively, the Tigers are just as unproven, returning only one of their top 15 tacklers from last season. Even with a manageable AAC schedule, this team is likely to drop games. There's talent on the roster, but between the schematic changes, lack of continuity and overall inexperience, it's tough to project nine wins.
Army OVER 7.5 wins (+110)
Army's 2025 schedule sets up favorably for another solid run in the AAC. Outside of road trips to Kansas State, UTSA and Air Force, most of the slate looks manageable. The defense returns continuity under DC Nate Woody, who led a unit that topped the league in points allowed last season and should remain one of the AAC's toughest, even with a few key departures.
Offensively, replacing Bryson Daily, last year's AAC Offensive Player of the Year and a top-10 Heisman finalist is no small task. Senior Dewayne Coleman takes over after serving as Daily's backup, and while he's more limited as a passer, his skill set fits Army's typical quarterback mold. He can manage the offense, protect the football and contribute in the run game, which keeps the identity of this option-based attack intact. Coleman has leadership qualities, experience in the system and two proven backs to lean on, meaning Army won't need him to be Daily, just steady and efficient.
With home games against Navy, Temple, Charlotte, and Tulsa plus winnable matchups against UNT, ECU and UAB, eight wins looks like a realistic floor if Coleman plays within himself and the defense holds form.
How to bet Conference USA
C-USA might be unpredictable this year, but there are two spots I feel confident about. Liberty is set up well with a light schedule, a system quarterback and enough talent on both sides of the ball to cruise. On the flip side, Kennesaw State is still adjusting to the FBS level and this year will be doing so with a new offensive identity.
Liberty OVER 9.5 wins (-125)
Liberty is set up for a big ... let's call it a bounce-back year. The schedule is soft enough that the Flames could be favored in every game, and even in a "down year" last season, they still went 8-4. Coastal Carolina transfer Ethan Vasko is expected to step in at quarterback and should fit perfectly in Jamey Chadwell's system, while the backfield remains deep with several capable options. The defense returns enough key pieces and added portal talent to handle Conference USA competition. The offensive line has three new starters, but with this schedule, Liberty has a clear path to dominate the conference.
Kennesaw State UNDER 3.5 wins (+125)
Kennesaw State is still finding its footing at the FBS level after a rough two-win debut. New coach Jerry Mack is moving the offense from a run-heavy triple-option to a more balanced approach, and that transition will take time. The defense brings back seven starters, but the unit gave up 32 points per game last year (104th), which makes a large improvement unlikely. The schedule also works against the Owls, with swing games against Jacksonville State, New Mexico State, FIU and Missouri State. The secondary is solid enough to maybe steal a game, but reaching four wins feels like a stretch. I like the under getting plus money.
