|
The Big Ten conference feels less like tradition and more like transformation this season. The defending national champion Ohio State Buckeyes return with repeat on their minds and a quarterback who might just make it look easy. Iowa is no longer allergic to offense and suddenly is a team worth watching. Nebraska has a star quarterback in Dylan Raiola, but the Cornhuskers' path to a bowl isn't guaranteed, even with head coach Matt Rhule in his third year. Penn State might be the most complete team in the country -- but don't be fooled by make-believe production on paper. Michigan is no longer rebuilding but reloading with a true freshman phenom behind center and true playoff upside. As for USC, let's just say Lincoln Riley is running out of time to prove his system can work. But let's start with the team from Columbus. Ohio State's tremendous balanceThe Buckeyes enter the season with one of the most balanced rosters in the country and arguably the best defense in college football. Safety Caleb Downs returns as one of the college football's elite defenders, and linebacker Sonny Styles leads a front seven built to pressure quarterbacks and limit explosive plays. Offensively, former five-star recruit Julian Sayin takes over at quarterback, following nearly two years of preparation under head coach Ryan Day. Sayin inherits what could be the best receiving corps in the nation with Jeremiah Smith, Carnell Tate and Brandon Inniss, plus a deep backfield featuring CJ Donaldson and James Peoples. Protecting Sayin is an offensive line that will be returning key starters and allowed just one sack per game last year.. That can help a young quarterback build confidence. Lack of experience could be an issue for OSUThere's no ignoring the inexperience under center. Sayin's first career start comes against No. 1 Texas in Week 1, while Ohio State as a whole replaces 14 NFL draft picks from last year's title team. There are also new playcallers, with Brian Hartline running the offense and Matt Patricia leading the defense. However, Hartline has continuity with the Buckeyes after previously coaching the wide receivers, and Patricia has NFL expertise to offer. Still, the Buckeyes' two biggest challenges outside Michigan are Texas and Penn State -- and Ohio State gets both at home in Columbus, where Day is 28-1. With elite talent, a favorable schedule and a defense capable of carrying them, 10.5 wins feels short. You're getting plus money on a defending champion that could realistically finish undefeated. How to bet the BuckeyesOhio State OVER 10.5 wins (+115)  This price is generous. Even if the Buckeyes lose to Michigan, an 11-1 record cashes this over. Ohio State has arguably the best defense in the country and two of its toughest games at home. The quarterback situation, with Sayin under center, is murky, but the floor is high thanks to the rest of the roster. Jeremiah Smith should be getting Heisman attention. The only landmine is a possible stumble at Illinois or Rutgers. Still, +115 is solid value for a team that should be competitive in every game this season.
Other Big Ten betsIowa OVER 7.5 wins (+120) The market could be slow to adjust -- again. Iowa scored 26.7 points per game last year, won eight games and finished 10-3 to the over after going 10-29 from 2021-23. The Hawkeyes upgraded at quarterback, with South Dakota State transfer Mark Gronowski giving Iowa its most dynamic signal-caller in years. He's a proven winner with over 12,000 career yards and brings dual-threat ability to an offense that finally looks capable of pushing the ball downfield. Considering the Hawkeyes' season win total is just 7.5, if the defense plays to its usual standard and Gronowski is the real deal, Iowa's path to another eight- or nine-win season is realistic, even with a back-loaded schedule. Nebraska UNDER 7.5 wins (+125) The over on Nebraska's win total is 7.5 is juiced to -160 banking on the "Year 3 Rhule effect." Matt Rhule made a significant leap in Year 3 during his tenures at both Temple and Baylor (10-4 and 11-3, respectively). Nebraska is already ahead of schedule, ending a seven-year bowl drought with a 7-6 finish in 2024. The problem for me: the Cornhuskers are still unproven in close games, finishing 3-10 in one-score games over the last two seasons. Closing the deal remains a glaring issue that could cost them again unless something changes late in games. And although the WR room is talented, it's new. Chemistry comes into play with Raiola, who tossed 11 interceptions in 2024 and needs to improve his decision-making. Penn State OVER 10.5 wins (+105) There is hesitation with this bet being the same as Ohio State. The Nittany Lions only have to lose once to risk going under their win total. And if that one loss is to Ohio State, you will need PSU to beat Oregon and Iowa on the road and avoid any possible traps like Nebraska and Rutgers. Can they do it? Yes. But the margin for error is tight. Penn State might be the most complete team in the country on paper, but if the receivers don't win one-on-ones or QB Drew Allar doesn't take the next leap, the Nittany Lions' ceiling stays capped. The CFP semifinal was a blueprint on how to beat Penn State: take away the tight end, press the receivers and dare Allar to beat you outside. There is upside, having brought in three transfer receivers and still having continuity with sophomore TE Luke Reynolds. Let's see if OC Andy Kotelnicki can be a creative upgrade. Michigan to MAKE the CFP (+200) Takings the over on 8.5 wins is hard to stomach at a price of -180, but the pieces are there for a 10-2 season. After a transition year, the Wolverines are back in the contender mix. Momentum matters. Michigan finished 2024 on a tear, winning three straight to go from 5-5 to 8-5, and had back-to-back victories over Ohio State and Alabama. It was the clearest sign yet that Sherrone Moore figured things out in Year 1. Five-star true freshman Bryce Underwood could be as good as advertised. He flashed serious arm talent in the spring game and, while raw, he's the future and possibly the now. From UNC, veteran playcaller Chip Lindsey could add aggression and a passing game and a capable vertical attack. The schedule is rough (at Oklahoma, at Nebraska, at USC), but if Underwood or Mikey Keene settles in early, Michigan is built to return to the Big Ten title conversation. The floor is higher, but the ceiling depends on QB1. USC UNDER 7.5 wins (+140) USC is close. The Trojans return experienced QB Jayden Maiava, who after taking over late last year finished 3-1 as the starter. Wide receivers Makai Lemon (764 yards) and Ja'Kobi Lane (12 TDs) could be among the Big Ten's most dangerous receiving tandems, while the defense bulked up across the board and now has a bigger and better defensive front. The problem is, since Riley's 11-3 debut in 2022, USC has fallen short of expectations and hasn't made the CFP, in part because of a lack of consistency. The Trojans went 1-4 on the road in 2024. In 2025, they travel to Illinois, Notre Dame, Nebraska and Oregon, all games that could trip them up again if those woes continue. They're not going 8-4 unless everything clicks. And based on the trenches and schedule, it probably won't.
|
