NFL Week 11 props that pop: Goff rebounds, Travis Kelce stays hot

Can you believe it's Week 11 already? It feels like the season just got underway, yet here we are with fewer games ahead of us than behind. Where does the time go?

Last week, I hit on two of my three props, with Sam Darnold falling miserably short of his 1.5 passing touchdowns and instead throwing three interceptions... including two of them in the end zone. What can I say, you win some you lose some.

But today is a new day, with new props, new lines and new opportunities in front of us. Let's dive into the Week 11 props that pop! -- Daniel Dopp

All odds as of publication time. For the latest odds, visit ESPN BET.

Quarterback props

Jared Goff OVER 1.5 passing TDs (-125)

Dopp: Goff is coming off his worst game of the season in which he threw five interceptions. It wasn't pretty in Houston, as the Texans' defense harassed him early and often.

The Jaguars' defense hasn't been quite as good against quarterbacks, registering only 21 sacks on the season (eighth-fewest in the league) and only five interceptions (seventh-fewest). The Lions will assuredly plan to utilize their RBs in this one. And while that could mean potential ground-game touchdowns, you better believe that Lions OC Ben Johnson has plans to get Goff back on track with some easy passes in the short game. Over the past seven games, Goff has six outings with at least two touchdowns, with the rainy outdoor game at Lambeau Field being the only exception. On top of that, Jacksonville has given up 19 touchdown passes this year, the fourth-most in the NFL.

In what looks like a rebound game at home against a struggling Jacksonville team, I'm fully expecting to see the MVP-level Goff we've seen tor most of the season.

By the way, notice how this Goff touchdown prop leans right into the Jake Bates extra point prop (you'll see it below). We're all about correlation when looking at potential same game parlays!

Mac Jones UNDER 34.5 pass attempts (+100)

Dopp: You may be saying to yourself: this doesn't feel like it correlates well with the other two props. I mean, the Jaguars are heavy underdogs and likely have to throw the ball a ton, which would mean taking the over on pass attempts here.

But, not so fast my friend.

First off, Jones doesn't inspire a ton of confidence. In order to throw the ball a lot, you have to stay on the field a fair amount, and the potential for the Lions to dominate time of position through their ground game is a serious threat to that possibility. Add in the propensity for short drives or three-and-outs from Mac's offense and you'll start to see why coming up short of this line is a real possibility.

And even though the Jags have been playing catchup in the majority of their games, Trevor Lawrence only hit this line twice in nine games, and the Lions have only allowed one QB to go over 34.5 pass attempts all season. In fact, the Jags have failed to achieve a first down on 41.5% of their drives this season, third-worst in the NFL.

While it may seem like game script could dictate a lot of throwing, the Jags will have to put together a lot of successful drives in order to maintain the volume needed to go over this mark, something I don't see happening given their inability to achieve first downs. It's always possible that the Jags could surprise us, but I'm following the trends.

Running back props

Christian McCaffrey OVER 74.5 rushing yards, scores rushing TD, 49ers win (+190)

Liz Loza: McCaffrey made his 2024 debut last Sunday, logging 19 touches for over 100 scrimmage yards. So much for being eased back into action.

McCaffrey may have looked a bit rusty as a rusher, averaging 3.0 YPC in Week 10, but I'm confident he'll return to form versus a gettable Seahawks run defense that has allowed the fourth-highest YPC at 4.8. To the point, CMC has registered at least 75 rushing yards in each of his four meetings as a 49er when facing Seattle. In fact, he's actually cleared 100 rushing yards in each of those efforts.

Additionally, the Seahawks have given up eight scores to RBs in nine games played thus far, making McCaffery (who led the position in total scores in 2023) a solid bet to find pay dirt. McCaffrey's ability to elevate the offense cannot be overstated, particularly in matchups versus Seattle. Interestingly, San Francisco is 4-0 against the Seahawks in the regular season (5-0, when including the playoffs) since CMC was traded to the 49ers on Oct. 20, 2022. I'm all in on this special wager for a special player!

Nick Chubb OVER 59.5 rushing yards (-115)