Eliminator Challenge Week 5: NFL picks, predictions, tips

Through Week 4, over 96% of Eliminator Challenge entrants have been eliminated. Underdogs of at least a touchdown are 5-2 this season, tied for the most such wins through Week 4 in the Super Bowl era.

Last week was the least chaotic, but the Denver Broncos' upset win over the New York Jets matched the largest upset so far this season (+8.5).

Week 5 shapes up as a complicated week on paper. As of Tuesday evening, only three teams are favored by at least four points, tied for the second fewest in any week in the past 40 seasons. Two of those three teams are the favorites to meet in the Super Bowl (Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers).

There is also a wide range of outputs in predictive models this week. Mike Clay's Eliminator Challenge model rates the three biggest favorites this week as the Indianapolis Colts, Washington Commanders and Broncos.

The betting market has three completely different teams; the 49ers, Seattle Seahawks and Chiefs. ESPN Analytics has the top three as the 49ers, Seahawks and Chicago Bears.

Long story short, you can go in a lot of different directions this week, with the 49ers the safest choice on paper.

Click here to download Mike Clay's Eliminator Cheat Sheet, updated weekly. Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET 

San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals

The 49ers are the biggest betting favorites and have the highest chance to win at ESPN Analytics. The 49ers have dominated this series the last two years, winning and covering four straight meetings while scoring at least 35 points in each. Both Mike Clay and ESPN Analytics won't have the 49ers this big of favorites again until December.

With a tricky week and a number of unreliable favorites, taking the reigning NFC champions at home against a below-average team appears like the safest choice.

• ESPN BET odds: 49ers -7.5 (-350 moneyline)

• ESPN Analytics: 49ers 70% chance to win

• Eliminator Challenge: 7% selected

Seattle Seahawks vs. New York Giants

The Seahawks are the second-biggest betting favorites early this week, and ESPN Analytics rates this as the only remaining game this season they have more than a 55% chance to win. The key with this game will come down to the injury report. The Seahawks missed several defensive starters in Monday's loss to the Lions.

Meanwhile, Giants star rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers left last Thursday's loss with a concussion. Keep an eye on those injury updates before locking in the Seahawks this week.

• ESPN BET odds: Seahawks -6 (-270 moneyline)

• ESPN Analytics: Seahawks 65% chance to win

• Eliminator Challenge: 11% selected

Washington Commanders vs. Cleveland Browns

These two teams have gone in completely different directions since Week 1. The Commanders' rating has risen five points since the start of the season at ESPN Analytics, while the Browns have dropped 3.5 points. Part of the issue with the Browns has been injuries on both sides of the ball, so keep an eye on their injury reports this week.

The emergence of rookie QB Jayden Daniels has led to the Commanders averaging the most EPA per play on offense this season. The defense has been bad, but the Browns rank 27th in offensive EPA per play despite facing four below average defenses.

• ESPN BET odds: Commanders -3.5 (-175 moneyline)

• ESPN Analytics: Commanders 63% chance to win

• Eliminator Challenge: 2% selected

Other Options:

4. Denver Broncos (vs Las Vegas Raiders)
5. Kansas City Chiefs (vs New Orleans Saints)
6. Chicago Bears (vs Carolina Panthers)