One of the many areas of interest leading into the Ashes is what type of pitches the series will be played on. Questions abound about whether it's better to take on England on flatter surfaces or on more lively pitches that may narrow any gap between the two attacks but also make it harder for the Bazball batters to flourish. Steven Smith recently endorsed the latter approach.
There is no doubt that batting has become tougher in Australia in recent years. Anyone with a top-order spot is usually happy to mention that, and the numbers back it up. In some cases, especially at the MCG, more grass is being left on the pitches - the 2017-18 Ashes Test, which included Alastair Cook's double-century, finally persuaded those in charge that change was needed. The tweaks to the Kookaburra ball around 2021 have also had a significant impact.
The way England's ODI top order - consisting of at least four Test players - floundered against the moving ball in New Zealand won't have gone unnoticed, either.
"England play pretty well on the flatter wickets, the way they play," Smith said last month. "So, if there's a bit in it like there has been the last three or four years, with our bowling attack, it certainly makes things a lot more difficult for their batters."
The ten-year trend
In the last five seasons, since 2020-21, when Australia faced India in the Covid summer, the collective Test batting average in the country has been 26.75. Globally for the same period - excluding the handful of Tests staged in the UAE and Ireland - that places Australia seventh between Bangladesh and India.
Although conditions had already started to change, in the five summers previous, the average was 34.46, which, for countries that had hosted at least ten Tests, gave Australia the highest collective average. Last summer's series against India had a collective average of 24.43, which was the lowest for an Australian home season since 1978-79.
Significantly, the altered Kookaburra ball was first used in Tests in Australia during the 2021-22 Ashes. The major changes were a double coating of lacquer, which helps the ball retain its hardness, and a plastic lining under the leather, which means the seam stays more prominent.
Smith said during last season's series against India that he thought batting had got more difficult since the changes to the Kookaburra. "Particularly when at the same time wickets have got greener, so it's kind of like the perfect storm coming together."
"But the ball's definitely staying harder, so I think the last three years have probably been the hardest that I've experienced in my career batting-wise, in terms of the amount of movement that's being generated.
"If you look back five years ago, you're seeing consistent 400-500s being scored in the first innings. If you put a three in front of it these days, you're usually in a pretty strong position, so you know you've got to think about that as well when you're thinking about play. Sometimes if you don't get a hundred, it's not the end of the world."
The downward trend of batting averages has not only been seen in Australia. Analysis by ESPNcricinfo earlier this year showed how bowlers have dominated since the World Test Championship was introduced, which brought with it the incentive to push for victories. Only four Tests in the last WTC cycle ended in draws - and all of them were affected by rain, preventing 300 overs of play - although the trend in result-oriented Tests pre-dated the WTC.
How the venues have changed
All of Australia's major venues that continue to host Test cricket - the WACA staged its last men's game during the 2017-18 Ashes - except for Perth Stadium, have seen a decline in their batting average over the last five years, with the MCG and SCG showing a significant shift. The MCG, where Scott Boland took 6 for 7 during the 2021-22 Ashes, is widely regarded as the spiciest Test pitch in the country now, although it mellowed somewhat for last season's visit by India, where the game went deep into day five. That may be the balance that is sought in the future, although the T20I against India late last month did plenty with the new ball.
The SCG's figures changed substantially with last year's ball-dominated game against India, where, in an attempt to bring some life back to the square, the ground staff veered too far in the other direction. How the pitches in Sydney shape up this season will be worth watching.
Perth Stadium, which missed two seasons due to Covid, is an interesting example as it beds down as a Test venue. Last year both first innings were over within four sessions. The pitch then flattened for a period on days two and three as India made 487 for 6 before unevenness started to come through via large cracks. The year before, against Pakistan, it was a nightmare for batting in the fourth innings thanks to those same cracks.
A different day-nighter this season
Adelaide Oval has been the traditional home of the day-night Test but for this year's Ashes, the pink-ball game will be staged at the Gabba, which has hosted three previous floodlit Tests, including Australia's only defeat in matches of this sort, against West Indies in early 2024.
Damien Hough, the Adelaide curator, has pretty much got his day-night preparation spot-on and the players widely regard it as the best venue for such matches. In the most recent day-night Test at the Gabba, against West Indies in early 2024, Mitchell Starc felt the pitch was too firm for the pink ball, although it's worth noting this season's match will be played much earlier in the season.
"I think it now comes down to the wicket, which I think Adelaide's got right because of the ball, and we know it goes soft at certain stages depending on the wicket," Starc said at the time. "I think there's a certain cushion to what they make in Adelaide and just why it's been such a good Test match, the pink-ball Test in Adelaide."
Although there is limited data available for the Gabba, the third session has the lowest batting average, while the middle one has the highest. In day Tests at the ground, the last session has the highest average.
Wither (overseas) spin
It remains a realistic scenario that England don't play a frontline spinner in the first Test, in Perth, and the role may be limited for the visitors throughout. Will Jacks could play a part or the spin may be left in the hands of Jacob Bethell and Joe Root. From the numbers alone, you can understand why England would consider that.
On the whole, across the last decade, Australia has been an awful place for visiting spinners. Only once in that time, during India's victory in 2020-21, have the overseas spinners fared better than Australia's (which largely means Nathan Lyon).
Lyon was left out for Australia's most recent Test, against West Indies at Sabina Park, which was played with a pink Dukes under lights and finished in less than seven sessions. It's highly unlikely that scenario will play out on home soil, although even Lyon was reduced to a bit-part player for large chunks of last season's series against India.
No domestic bliss
The more challenging conditions for batters in Test cricket have been reflected in Australia's domestic first-class competition, the Sheffield Shield. The 2023-24 summer was the only edition in the last 20 years that ended with a collective batting average below 26. The figure climbed a little last season, but pitches remain a gripe among some domestic coaches, who believe the preference for result-oriented surfaces has skewed too far.
"It was strongly reported and happily received by batting groups across the country… that there was a desire to tone down the pitches across the country and find that better balance between bat and ball," NSW coach Greg Shipperd told ESPNcricinfo before the season. "I think that worked for two-thirds of the season, until some places [identify] that a result is necessary, and the nature of the pitch changes quite aggressively. I think for that to be stamped out would be excellent."
It was a sentiment echoed by Victoria coach Chris Rogers. "Whether we want to produce pitches that favour bowlers who don't have to bowl that fast or have huge skill… I'd say we just have to be mindful that we're going down a path that's so different to what we face in international cricket," he told Code Sports. "I think that's what England are trying to do with Bazball - they're trying to play a lot of their domestic cricket on really flat wickets and almost say that that's what you're going to face when you play international cricket."
Those who need to balance the budget at CA - and, probably, most who have bought tickets - would no doubt like the Tests to stretch deep into day four. CA chief executive Todd Greenberg recently joked he would get on the roller himself if he could.
"I hope the groundsmen stick to their guns and prepare the wickets they want," Starc said this week. "If we're worried about five days of revenue, then there's bigger problems at hand."