Big picture: SL hit by injuries and illness
Sri Lanka just can't catch a break. While still reeling from the almost comical nature of the defeat in the final T20I, one which handed India a 3-0 series sweep - and possibly a multitude of nervous breakdowns to those watching, their preparations for the ODI leg have been hampered significantly by the injury or illness-related absence of no less than five of their fast bowlers.
This has meant that the uncapped Mohamed Shiraz and Eshan Malinga have been called up to hopefully - keeping all fingers and toes crossed here - provide support for the only other fit seamer in the squad in Asitha Fernando, and the all-round stylings of Chamika Karunaratne.
The one silver lining in all this is that it might, however briefly, take their minds off the last two times these sides met in a 50-over contest, where Sri Lanka collectively scored 105 runs. In fact, across their last four ODI meetings, Sri Lanka have failed to reach triple digits on three occasions.
That said, their best course of action might be to not put too much stock in the results of these upcoming games. Their next major ODI tournament is the World Cup in 2027 - they did not make it to the 2025 Champions Trophy - so focusing on the process and looking to put in place the right foundations may be the right play for the time being.
In terms of recent form, Sri Lanka have had success in ODIs this year against Bangladesh, Afghanistan and Zimbabwe, but their last ODI win against India was back in July 2021. That result had brought an end to a five-match losing streak against India - in fact, each of Sri Lanka's last three ODI victories against India have come in service of disrupting five-game losing streaks. So if you are looking for a straw to clutch onto, Sri Lanka's current losing streak to India in ODIs stands at six. Something's surely gotta give, right?
As far as India go, this is just the next step in a pristinely mapped-out path to the Champions Trophy. Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli are back in the fold, with the team's primary focus on ironing out kinks and settling into a nice team combination. You also imagine they will be quietly hoping for a sterner challenge than what was on offer in the T20Is.
Form guide
Sri Lanka LWLWW (last five ODIs, most recent first)
India WLWLW
In the spotlight: Pathum Nissanka and Kuldeep Yadav
It's clear that Sri Lanka are still struggling to rectify their longstanding middle- and lower-order struggles; much of their recent success has been borne out of top-order contributions. The primary source of this has been Pathum Nissanka. His 497 runs across six ODIs is comfortably the most by any batter in the world this year. Not just that, his strike rate of 122.41 is also the best among those with at least 200 runs. Sri Lanka will need Nissanka at the top of his game if they are to challenge this well-rounded Indian outfit.
With the action moving from Kandy to Colombo, the balance between bat and ball should also shift. The Khettarama has traditionally been one where scores of 300 or more are on the rarer side, with spin tending to play a pivotal role. Enter Kuldeep Yadav, who played an important part in India's recent T20 World Cup triumph but sat out the T20Is against Sri Lanka. While Ravi Bishnoi and, particularly, Riyan Parag impressed in his stead, Kuldeep will be keen to make his mark on the tour.
Team news: Rohit, Kohli, Kuldeep return
Sri Lanka's fast-bowling contingent is in disarray, but with the wicket likely to favour spin they may opt to go in with just the two frontline seamers. Provided they want an extra spin option, Dunith Wellalage might be preferred over Chamika Karunaratne.
Sri Lanka (probable): 1 Pathum Nissanka, 2 Kusal Mendis, 3 Sadeera Samarawickrama, 4 Kamindu Mendis, 5 Charith Asalanka (capt), 6 Janith Liyanage, 7 Dunith Wellalage/Chamika Karunaratne, 8 Wanindu Hasaranga, 9 Maheesh Theekshana, 10 Mohamed Shiraz/Eshan Malinga, 11 Asitha Fernando
India's top order picks itself, but it's lower down where there may be some experimentation. With Hardik Pandya not part of the ODI series, one of Shivam Dube and Parag will fill in as a batting allrounder. If Parag gets the nod, India might have the luxury of playing three frontline seamers, meaning one of Khaleel Ahmed and the uncapped Harshit Rana could get a game.
India (probable): 1 Rohit Sharma (capt), 2 Shubman Gill, 3 Virat Kohli, 4 Shreyas Iyer, 5 Rishabh Pant/KL Rahul (wk), 6 Shivam Dube/Riyan Parag, 7 Axar Patel, 8 Kuldeep Yadav, 9 Khaleel Ahmed/Harshit Rana, 10 Arshdeep Singh, 11 Mohammed Siraj
Pitch and conditions: Rain in the air
If the recent Lanka Premier League is to go by, the conditions for batting might have improved in Colombo compared to recent years, but there is still a fair amount in it for the bowlers, particularly the spinners. But getting a complete game on Friday might be tricky, with pockets of heavy rain expected throughout the day.
Stats and trivia: India's dominance
Only Zimbabwe, Ireland and Afghanistan among Full Members have a worse win-loss ratio against India over the past ten years than Sri Lanka. In that time India and Sri Lanka have played 24 ODIs, with Sri Lanka winning just three.
Kohli's 2594 runs are the second-most by an opposition batter against Sri Lanka in ODIs. Sachin Tendulkar sits atop the list with 3113.
Since the start of 2023, no batter has more runs in ODIs than Nissanka's 1648.
