Big picture: Pakistan in peril

Pakistan cricket, right now, isn't exactly going through a golden era, but few expected the bloody nose Bangladesh gave them last week.

For much of that Test match, Pakistan's chief frustration appeared to be they would end up with a draw, a draw would inhibit their efforts, which captain Shan Masood bullishly talked up in the build-up, at having a real crack at reaching the World Test Championship (WTC) final. Five days later, Pakistan would lose, and to add insult to injury, have half-a-dozen points docked for slow over rates, placing them ever so close to the bottom of the table. A home series defeat to Bangladesh would bring its own ignominy, which has little to do with whether they're in the race to prove themselves the best Test side in the world. Bangladesh had, until last week, won just six away Tests in a quarter century of being Full Members, two against an enfeebled West Indies in 2009, and another two against Zimbabwe.

Masood suddenly finds himself in a battle for the captaincy so soon after assuming it, having lost each of the four Tests he's been in charge. While flashes of quality against Australia over the winter meant the overall result could potentially be overlooked in favour of a long-term plan, such forgiveness will not come if Pakistan drop a home series against Bangladesh. With a busy time ahead that includes the sterner challenges of England and South Africa, ensuring they avoid handing this Test trophy over next week remains the bare minimum for this red-ball side to retain credibility with its supporters.

That task is complicated by the weather in Rawalpindi once more. Rain forced the cancellation of practice sessions on the eve of the game, with more forecast for the first day. It has led Pakistan to hesitate before officially confirming a spinner for the Test, naming a 12-man squad with Abrar Ahmed and Mir Hamza both in contention. Masood pointed out Pakistan were the more proactive side last week, and with Bangladesh only needing a draw, his side will have to find a way to repeat that while also ensuring they get a better result.

And what, really, can you say about the position Bangladesh have created for themselves? Najmul Hossain Shanto's side outplayed as well as outthought the hosts, doing the basics right. Like making sure they had spinners in case they came in handy on the final day, which they did. Or not leaving runs out by declaring early owing to ultimately unrealised concerns it might rain, which it did not. They let Pakistan's wobbles do the rest, and the ten-wicket win was as clinical as it was merited.

There are more important things going on back home, but the uncomplicated joy of last week was as welcome as it was unexpected. This, remember, is not a vintage Bangladesh side, and did not come in saddled with high expectations. They came in last week, saw an opponent making unforced errors and didn't interrupt them. They didn't get sucked into playing fashionably aggressive cricket, or bullied into doing anything they didn't want to do. They had no qualms about batting at under three runs an over for large parts of the first innings, and when Pakistan turned to declaration bowling, they simply didn't decare.

It secured Bangladesh arguably their greatest Test win, but they will know they need to hold off on wild celebrations for now. With one Test on the horizon and no clear signs Pakistan will be able to produce the pitch they want, all Bangladesh may need to do is pick up where they left off in the first Test. Pakistan must make all the moves, and as Bangladesh demonstrated, they are not going to be displaced too easily.

Form guide

Pakistan: LLLLW (last five completed matches, most recent first) Bangladesh: WLLLW

In the spotlight: Babar Azam and Mushfiqur Rahim

Babar Azam's slump aligning perfectly with the team's nosediving Test form has been aggravating. Pakistan are used to dry patches and players out of form, but it isn't quite obvious why this generation's best batter is now struggling to achieve the big scores that came so easily to him. There isn't a particular type of bowling or kind of shot that's ailing him nor does he have other responsibilities now that he has been relieved of the armband. Babar fell to two basic unforced errors in the first Test, a squeeze down leg side and a drive without footwork doing for him. Home runs on flat surfaces against Bangladesh seemed like a no-brainer, and he now has one more Test to try and fix that.

Mushfiqur Rahim played the role of the senior pro to a tee in the first Test. He used his strong defensive technique to good effect over the course of three partnerships that allowed the batters at the other end to operate with more freedom. Shadman Islam only opened up his repertoire in a 52-run stand with Mushfiqur, while Litton Das finally showed some form, after Mushfiqur allowed him to bat his way. Mehidy Hasan Miraz continued to shine with his batting mentor, playing out 178 balls in his innings. Mushfiqur continuing this role is bad news for Pakistan.

Team news: Taskin in, Nahid out?

Shaheen Afridi has been omitted from the squad for the second Test, with Abrar and Hamza part of the 12-member squad Pakistan have announced.

Pakistan: 1 Abdullah Shafique, 2 Saim Ayub, 3 Shan Masood (capt), 4 Babar Azam, 5 Saud Shakeel, 6 Mohammad Rizwan (wk), 7 Salman Ali Agha, 8 Abrar Ahmed/Mir Hamza, 9 Naseem Shah, 10 Mohammad Ali, 11 Khurram Shahzad

Fast bowler Taskin Ahmed is back fit, and should replace Nahid Rana. Having secured one of their greatest Test wins, Bangladesh are unlikely to make further changes.

Bangladesh: Shadman Islam, 2 Zakir Hasan, 3 Najmul Hossain Shanto (capt), 4 Mominul Haque, 5 Mushfiqur Rahim, 6 Shakib Al Hasan, 7 Litton Das (wk), 8 Mehidy Hasan Miraz, 9 Shoriful Islam, 10 Hasan Mahmud, 11 Taskin Ahmed

Pitch and conditions: Rain on the radar

Pakistan have made no secret of their desire for a pace-friendly wicket, though achieving it proved difficult in the first Test. There will be more than a tinge of grass on this new pitch, but monsoon rain lashed the city in the days since the end of the first Test. More rain is forecast during the game.

Stats and trivia: Babar's slump

• Mushfiqur, who was named Player of the Match in the first Test, is the only Bangladesh player to have taken part in all seven of his nation's away Test wins

• Since the start of 2023, Babar averages 21.15 in 13 Test innings with a highest score of 41

Quotes

"We're loathe to make a decision [on who to play] purely on over rates. Our over rates were poor in the first Test and unacceptable. We need to be better and get through our overs quicker. Our opposition like to call for gloves and drinks at very regular intervals so we need to be mindful of that but we can't control that. What we can control is our energy levels and making sure we're getting through our overs as quickly as possible."
Pakistan red-ball coach Jason Gillespie wants his side to control the controllables during the second Test