Big picture: Can Sri Lanka avoid another collapse?
The headline is that both teams are in with a shot at making the World Test Championship final, but neither have secured a place. Unhelpfully for South Africa, the WTC points system doesn't reward hefty winning margins, so although they crushed Sri Lanka by 233 runs in Durban, it still only goes down as a simple win.
Still, they have arrived in Gqeberha full of confidence. Another win here, and their path to that final clears up significantly. A win for Sri Lanka, meanwhile, would mean they have a chance of qualifying for the final without having to depend on other results. (They would also need to win the matches against Australia 2-0.)
Their first goal, however, is to be more competitive than they were in Durban. Their batters, specifically, cannot allow another collapse to occur. Various members of the batting group have spoken about the challenge of facing South Africa's tall quicks, on tracks that offer more bounce than they are used to at home. These coastal venues are not as bouncy as they tend to be in the Highveld, for instance, but have clearly presented more of a challenge than Sri Lanka expected. They'll also hope that given the wind and sunshine forecast for Gqeberha for the next few days, the surface will dry out and bring spinners more meaningfully into the game.
South Africa's own batters were dismissed for 191 in the first innings in Kingsmead, but they have Temba Bavuma and Tristan Stubbs coming into this Test in serious form, while Aiden Markram also got a decent innings under his belt at Kingsmead.
South Africa's concerns ahead of the Test centre around the make-up of their attack, with Wiaan Mulder and Gerald Coetzee both ruled out. They still have their spearheads in Kagiso Rabada and Marco Jansen, however, who shared 14 wickets in the previous Test, Jansen getting 11 on his own.
Form guide
South Africa: WWWWD (last five Tests, most recent first)
Sri Lanka: LWWWL
In the spotlight: Tristan Stubbs and Lahiru Kumara
Test cricket must seem pretty straightforward so far to 24-year-old Tristan Stubbs. Eleven innings in, he's got two centuries and a fifty, with an average of 43.90. While Bavuma was tentative in the approach to triple figures in Kingsmead, Stubbs raced through the 90s. He had had some luck in that innings, having been dropped on 33, but remained positive through his stay at the crease, pressing South Africa's advantage alongside Bavuma. He will relish the opportunity to back that 122 up with a solid performance in his first Test in his home town.
Lahiru Kumara is not always the most disciplined of Sri Lanka's quicks, but he is their fastest bowler, and at Kingsmead, the most penetrative. He is on the verge of joining a fairly exclusive club. Sri Lanka have only ever had four seam bowlers get to 100 wickets - Chaminda Vaas, Lasith Malinga, Suranga Lakmal, and Dilhara Fernando. Kumara needs only one more dismissal to get up to triple figures. If Sri Lanka are to level the series, they will likely need Kumara to blow well past that milestone.
Team news
South Africa named their XI on match eve, with Ryan Rickelton and Dane Paterson coming in in place of Mulder and Coetzee. That means an extra batter, three seamers and a spinner.*
South Africa: 1 Aiden Markram, 2 Tony de Zorzi, 3 Tristan Stubbs, 4 Temba Bavuma (capt), 5 David Bedingham, 6 Kyle Verreynne (wk), 7 Ryan Rickelton, 8 Marco Jansen, 9 Keshav Maharaj, 10 Kagiso Rabada, 11 Dane Paterson
Sri Lanka also have major decisions to make around their attack. Will they do what they did in Lord's this year, and strap four fast bowlers to the plough? It's a definite possibility, given Milan Rathnayake can also bat a bit. They also desperately want to find a place for Oshada Fernando, as Oshada had recently made 122 and 80 for Sri Lanka A in South Africa, and had also hit 75 not out at this venue in 2019. But who would make way for his inclusion?
Sri Lanka (probable): 1 Dimuth Karuanaratne, 2 Pathum Nissanka, 3 Dinesh Chandimal, 4 Angelo Mathews, 5 Kamindu Mendis, 6 Dhananjaya de Silva (capt), 7 Kusal Mendis (wk), 8 Prabath Jayasuriuya/ Milan Rathnayake, 9 Vishwa Fernando, 10 Asitha Fernando, 11 Lahiru Kumara
Pitch and conditions
The day before the match, the playing surface was covered with a hessian to prevent too much moisture loss as the drying wind was expected to pick up in the afternoon. There remained significant grass on the surface for the same reason. The groundsman has yet to decide how much will be cut on the morning of the match. The westerly wind is forecast for most of the match, which suggests batting first and taking advantage of deteriorating conditions later on. No rain is forecast for the five days, for now.
Stats and trivia
If Kumara takes three wickets in Gqeberha, his wicket-tally will go past those of Dilhara Fernando (100) and Lasith Malinga (101), and he will become the third-highest wicket-taker in Sri Lanka's seam-bowling history.
Sri Lanka lost their first match in Gqeberha in 2016, going down by 206 runs. But they won their most recent game at the venue, by eight wickets in 2019.
Stubbs has been excellent at getting starts so far in his career, having got to 20 in nine of his 11 innings.
Quotes
"The way that we stacked up our line-up is that, we believe that with the runs on the board, that gives you enough time to get 20 wickets. It might take us a bit longer. It may not play like Durban. There is a bit more grass on the wicket. I think there will be something in there for our seamers. But if it doesn't favour our seamers, we do have the spin of Kesh[av Maharaj] to be effective. So we believe that whether it's the seam, whether it's the spin, we can still be successful in these conditions."
South Africa captain Temba Bavuma
"If we compare this cycle with the previous one, we are doing far better. I'm happy with the boys and how they've performed. If we don't get to the final in this cycle, we should be prepared to de even better in the next one."
Sri Lanka captain Dhananjaya de Silva
*The preview was updated after South Africa named their XI.
