| | ESPN.com senior baseball writer Jayson Stark recently stopped by for a chat session to take your questions on the latest rumblings in the baseball world.
Stark tackled possible player movements including Alex Rodriguez, Jason Kendall, Jeff Bagwell, and more. Will teams shell out the big bucks or will they choose another, less expensive path? Stark has the answers.
In case you missed the September 5 chat, the following is an edited transcript.
Chris Martin: What has happened to the normally good starting rotation of the Atlanta Braves?
Jayson Stark: The rotation is the Braves and always has been. And the difference this year is that where they
used to run four or five great starters out there, they now have just two consistently dominating
pitchers -- Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux. And Maddux's last two first innings make you wonder about
him a little. Andy Ashby has good stuff but still hasn't been able to keep the ball down
consistently. And he's now 1-5 in his last seven starts as a Brave. Kevin Millwood has turned
into too much of a nibbler, for reasons they can't seem to figure out. He's been much better his
last nine starts. But he rarely has been the guy whose opponents' batting average last year was
lower than Randy Johnson's. True, this team hasn't scored runs the way it used to. And they
still don't have a bullpen pecking order. But if they don't get Ashby or Millwood straightened
out in the next four weeks, they're in trouble.
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Jayson Stark is a senior baseball writer for ESPN.com, penning several columns a week for ESPN.com, including Friday's Week in Review and Saturday's Rumblings and Grumblings, He also appears as an analyst for ESPN's Baseball Tonight and ESPN Radio.
Prior to joining ESPN.com, Stark worked at the Philadelphia Inquirer for 21 years, serving initially as the Philadelphia Phillies beat writer and then as national baseball writer and columnist. He also was the creator and author of the nationally syndicated Baseball Week in Review column, known for unearthing obscure, historic and humorous aspects of baseball, from 1983-1999. He also served as a columnist for Baseball America for 16 years.
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Scott: Will Terry Francona, Gene Lamont, Jack McKeon, Felipe Alou, Larry Rothschild, or Larry
Dierker survive the winter and manage next year?
Jayson Stark: I would say Gene Lamont and Jack McKeon are definitely gone. There is now more chance of
Terry Francona being fired than staying. It's hard to imagine Felipe Alou back in Montreal,
given the current climate. But Jeffrey Loria would be even more of a villain if he fires Felipe than
he is now. And he's already on top of that Montreal leader board. Felipe is the most popular
single person in that franchise, and firing him would be a PR disaster. I think it's probable that
Rothschild and Dierker will be back. But Vince Naimoli is an emotional owner in Tampa Bay,
and you never know. And if it were up to the players, Larry Dierker would be out in Houston.
But it's Drayton McLane's call. And he's apparently leaning toward wanting Dierker back,
though there have been some mixed messages there. The one manager you didn't ask about
who I think is certainly gone is Davey Johnson in L.A., barring a miracle comeback by that
team in September.
Greg: What's the word on Cal Eldred ?
Jayson Stark: Cal Eldred had some pain the last time he threw, and he's apparently done for the year. Now
you have to wonder about his future, given his health history. That's a real shame for the White
Sox, because James Baldwin isn't throwing well at the moment, either. And you knew months
ago that one of those two guys needed to be their big-game starter in October.
Paul: Is Jason Kendall going to sign with the Pirates next year? If he doesn't, seems like that franchise
is doomed to failure -- even with the new stadium.
Jayson Stark: Kendall is really beaten down mentally by all the losing the Pirates have done. And what
scares the Pirates is that this doesn't seem to be about the money. I think the Pirates would pay
what it would take to keep him, because his value to them is greater than his value to most other
teams. But given that the Padres were willing to trade Matt Clement for him before the
deadline, they might be able to make a decent deal for him. But as you suggest, losing him as
they head into a new stadium is a major blow to the credibility of the franchise.
Tim Schieber: What do the Phillies have to do in the offseason to regain their promising form from a year
ago?
Jayson Stark: I still think the Phillies have a decent foundation of every-day players to build around and a
chance to have a White Sox-like rotation -- with no Curt Schilling-type ace but five guys who
keep them in games. If I were in charge of the Phillies, I would make the bullpen the No. 1 priority this
winter. They can't build a decent bullpen around six-year minor-league free agents, guys coming
off injuries and suspects. They've proven that. They need to follow the Mets' formula and bring
in as many dependable relievers with good arms as they can sign or trade for, regardless of
salary. Then they should build that pitching staff from the back forward.
They also need to improve their bench. And they need to make a run at some of the big-name
free agents to convince people in Philadelphia they are trying.
With the contracts of Scott Rolen, Mike Lieberthal and Bobby Abreu all up around the same time, their window of
opportunity to win with this group is essentially the next year or possibly two, period.
Josh Miller: How do you feel about the Giants, owners of the best record in the National League, and their
chances against Johnson, Schilling, and the D-Backs?
Jayson Stark: The Giants are in position now to make those eight games remaining with the Diamondbacks
almost meaningless. Arizona has to stay within three games entering that stretch, then win six of
eight. A lead of four or more would mean Arizona would have to sweep eight games, and that's
impossible.
The Diamondbacks are now 7-9 in games Schilling and the Unit have started since that trade.
And if you'd told me those two would make 16 starts in the next month, I'd have predicted
they'd be more like 12-4 or 11-5. So that's a huge swing. How those two have pitched is
essentially the difference in the race. Arizona last year had a five-deep rotation. Now Armando Reynoso
is up and down. They don't know what to expect from Todd Stottlemyre. Brian Anderson has been
great most of the year, but now has one win in his last 12 starts. You could make a case the
Diamondbacks' fate will come down to what Schilling and Johnson do in September. They
almost have to be unbeatable. The Giants' rotation gets very little attention. But they're going to
have five pitchers win in double figures, none with a losing record and possibly only Russ Ortiz
with an ERA over 4.00. Can't beat that in this day and age. The Giants, with their offense, are a
very real threat to go to the World Series.
Matt Fisher: Assuming Seattle re-signs Alex Rodriguez, who is the best free agent shortstop available next offseason?
Jayson Stark: I would hardly "assume" A-Rod will re-sign with Seattle, although the Mariners have promised
him they won't be outbid. But the other shortstops out there this winter include: Mike Bordick,
Alex Gonzalez (Toronto) and Walt Weiss (though he has hinted he'll retire). Another possibility
is Gary DiSarcina. The Angels have an option on him at $3.5 million but may try to renegotiate.
Ryan Mittleman: Jayson, do you have any predictions on where the big-name free agents (Mike Mussina, A-Rod,
Manny Ramirez, Darren Dreifort, etc.) will end up this offseason?
Jayson Stark: Ryan, it's very early to try to predict the market. But I'll give it a shot on some of these guys.
Alex: Mets poised to make a big run and may have the inside track. Seattle has indicated it
wants a chance to match any offer. The Dodgers and Rockies are clearly interested. There are
rumblings the White Sox will be involved. I'd be surprised if the Rangers and Orioles didn't at
least inquire. Atlanta is out of it following Chipper's deal. Arizona has to at least put in a bid, but
the price and length of deal could be prohibitive for them. My guess is still the Mets, because I
think A-Rod wants to go to the National League where he would be the preeminent
shortstop, with no Derek Jeter-Nomar Garciaparra competition -- and to a show-biz market like New York, where
the other opportunities are limitless.
Mussina: Won't roam too far from home. Could easily stay in Baltimore, despite his obvious
unhappiness with what's gone on there. Cleveland is said to be his second choice.
Manny: Cleveland will try to keep him, but the price will eventually drive the Indians elsewhere.
So watch for the Rockies as a definite possibility here, given Manny's comfort level with Dan
O'Dowd. Manny is not the kind of personality who can go to a big, big market as the
highest-paid player in franchise history, because all he wants to do is play. He doesn't want to
do interviews or be a public figure in any substantial way. So that limits his market.
Dreifort: Many, many rumors he'll wind up with the Cubs. Depends on Scott Boras' price tag.
The Cubs won't be signing anyone to any record-setting contracts.
Hampton: Still a chance he could be a Met, but I'd bet on Atlanta. I was told by one of his
friends as long ago as March that's where he wanted to be. But that could depend on price tag,
too. If not there, could be anywhere. He'll be the next most coveted free agent out there, next
to A-Rod.
SPR: Have the moves Boston has made in the last month, coupled with the John Valentin and Jose Offerman
contracts, taken them out of the running for a big-name free agent in the offseason?
Jayson Stark: By my calcluations, the Red Sox payroll is close to $90 million now. And they owe Valentin,
Offerman, Mike Lansing and Dante Bichette $25 million for next season. Then there's an
$8-million option on Ramon Martinez, which they might have a hard time not picking up (given
their relationship with one of his noted family members). So that could be $33 million for just
those five guys. Scary! So it's hard to see where they would find $15-20 million a year for the
big-name guys. But Dan Duquette has proven to be very resourceful. Carl Everett has been as
valuable as any free agent signed last winter. So I'm sure the Sox will make changes. I just don't
see how they can take on another huge contract without moving some money, and those
contracts we talked about are unmoveable.
Mark#9: Assuming A-Rod won't stay, whom would the M's try to sign to replace him?
Jayson Stark: The big reason the Mariners didn't trade Carlos Guillen before the deadline is to hang onto him
as insurance if A-Rod leaves. But I'm not sure they're convinced he can be an every-day
shortstop, so they'd almost have to look around. Remember that Pat Gillick was the man who
brought Mike Bordick to Baltimore as Cal Ripken's replacement at short.
PatMac: Jayson, The Cardinals are playing great ball without production from some of their great players. Can
they win it all with this current chemistry, or will they need more down the stretch?
Jayson Stark: I still think they're going to need Mark McGwire back in the lineup to win. He's the most irreplaceable
hitter in baseball. But the last week and a half has to change that team's entire mindset. Going
into their last two games in Atlanta, the Cardinals were 1-8 this year against the Mets and
Braves. Since then, they've won five in a row. Darryl Kile also appears to be pitching as well as
he has all year. And he could beat any team in the league in a Game 1. Then you should be
able to get at least one win out of Pat Hentgen-Garrett Stephenson-Rick Ankiel. I still worry about this team's
bullpen. Fernando Vina, to me, now becomes their key offensive player. He really makes that
lineup go when he gets on.
Bill: Hey, Jayson, I miss you at the Inquirer. In light of the Phillies on-going problems getting a new stadium and Rolen's unhappiness at the Vet, what are the chances of them moving him over the winter?
Jayson Stark: Thanks, Bill. I don't think there's any chance the Phillies would move Rolen this winter. He has
told friends he will never ask to be traded. But the next 12 months are the key to whether he
stays beyond next season. It will come down to playing surface and winning more than money.
If they can go to the same grass-like turf the Devil Rays have, and he can at least play on dirt
and a more cushiony surface, that's a step in the right direction. And they're trying to make that
happen. Then they have to go all-out to win next year. Scott is obviously tired of losing. And
without promise of a future on a consistent contender in Philadelphia, I'd doubt he would want
to stay.
Andy C: Who will survive the battle for the AL wild card? And, whoever does survive and make the
playoffs, will they have enough in the tank to contend for a pennant?
Jayson Stark: The one team in this group that was built to win it all is Cleveland. The Indians have to survive
their grueling schedule this month, though. And we'll have to see what toll that takes. I think they
really need to get Charles Nagy back. And obviously, Bartolo Colon has to be both healthy
and ace-like. But that's a team that could beat anyone in October, particularly given Chuck
Finley's history against the Yankees.
And how could you count out the Red Sox, with Pedro? That's two guaranteed wins in every
series. Of course, they've scored almost 200 fewer runs than the White Sox.
Oakland is dangerous and a threat to win this, particularly with its easy schedule after this week.
But its youth and uncertain defense are the kind of trouble spots that tend to show up in
October.
The Blue Jays haven't played consistently all year, and they've been outscored by their
opponents for the season. But they have a legitimate ace and a legitimate closer. And they sure
score runs. So if they could ever get there, they could win a round.
You have to like Cleveland to win this now, but pitching depth will determine how well this
team survives September. And that hasn't exactly been its strength.
Raja Khouri: Why didn't the Giants pick up anyone other than Scott Servais to help down the stretch? I'm sure
they could have done better than that ...
Jayson Stark: The Giants had no more money to spend, especially given the fact they knew they were going
to make a serious effort to extend Robb Nen. They also knew at the July deadline they had Joe
Nathan coming back. And that gave them a great arm to add to their bullpen without giving up
anything. It's kind of tough to see what this team needs, to be honest. They've got a lower team
ERA than the Braves, Mets and Diamondbacks. And the only team in the league they haven't
outscored is the Rockies.
Josh Miller: Who has the best chance, Todd Helton or Carlos Delgado?
Jayson Stark: You would have to say Delgado at this point, now that he's actually passed Nomar for the
batting lead. I always thought this would be the hardest of the three for him to win, because
before this year he'd never even hit .300, believe it or not. I think he'll win the home-run title.
And with all the runs his team scores, he has a tremendous chance to pass Edgar for the RBI
lead. Average has always been the question, but his average hasn't been below .360 for five
straight weeks -- or below .350 for nearly three months.
Todd Helton is still a threat to hit .400, considering he almost hit .500 in August. But there's a
reason that hasn't been done for 60 years. One bad week can kill you. And that isn't necessarily
true in Delgado's case.
Frank: What are the chances the Astros will get rid of Jeff Bagwell? Do you think they can re-sign him?
Jayson Stark: Not much has been said or written about Bagwell's future. But this will be one of the most
fascinating stories of the winter. The Astros have made it clear they want to keep him and build
around him. But from talking to Jeff a couple of weeks ago, he seems skeptical about the
direction of the franchise. And that could have an impact on his desire to stay.
The other issue,
obviously, is money. It's probably going to take more than what Chipper got in Atlanta to keep
Bagwell in Houston. And is Drayton McLane going to want to pay that? Not sure. Watch the
Sammy Sosa negotiations in Chicago as one indicator of where the market is going. And watch to see if
the Astros can re-sign Bagwell early in the offseason. If he gets to the winter meetings unsigned,
it wouldn't surprise me if they at least listened to offers. But given their worries about Craig
Biggio since his knee operation, I don't see how they can afford to lose Bagwell.
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