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Max Olson, ESPN Staff Writer
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14d
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College football defensive stop rate after Week 11
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NCAA Football, Northern Illinois Huskies, Bowling Green Falcons, Indiana Hoosiers, James Madison Dukes, Purdue Boilermakers, Kansas Jayhawks, Eastern Michigan Eagles, Colorado State Rams, South Florida Bulls, East Carolina Pirates, UConn Huskies, Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns, Texas Longhorns, Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors, LSU Tigers, Oregon State Beavers, Florida International Panthers, TCU Horned Frogs, Missouri State Bears, Marshall Thundering Herd, Nevada Wolf Pack, Kennesaw State Owls, UTSA Roadrunners, Wisconsin Badgers, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Rutgers Scarlet Knights, Mississippi State Bulldogs, Texas Tech Red Raiders, Fresno State Bulldogs, North Carolina Tar Heels, Navy Midshipmen, Baylor Bears, Oklahoma State Cowboys, Arkansas State Red Wolves, UCLA Bruins, Texas A&M Aggies, Georgia Bulldogs, Arizona Wildcats, Iowa Hawkeyes, Boston College Eagles, Syracuse Orange, Louisville Cardinals, Memphis Tigers, Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Southern Miss Golden Eagles, Wyoming Cowboys, Troy Trojans, Minnesota Golden Gophers, Northwestern Wildcats, Sam Houston Bearkats, Illinois Fighting Illini, NC State Wolfpack, Tulsa Golden Hurricane, Missouri Tigers, Alabama Crimson Tide, Louisiana Tech Bulldogs, Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, Stanford Cardinal, Virginia Tech Hokies, UTEP Miners, Central Michigan Chippewas, Auburn Tigers, Liberty Flames, West Virginia Mountaineers, Boise State Broncos, South Alabama Jaguars, USC Trojans, Kentucky Wildcats, Ball State Cardinals, Florida Atlantic Owls, Oregon Ducks, UL Monroe Warhawks, Utah Utes, Pittsburgh Panthers, Florida Gators, Rice Owls, UCF Knights, Old Dominion Monarchs, Toledo Rockets, Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, Akron Zips, Army Black Knights, Charlotte 49ers, Texas State Bobcats, San Diego State Aztecs, Duke Blue Devils, San José State Spartans, SMU Mustangs, BYU Cougars, New Mexico Lobos, Kent State Golden Flashes, Jacksonville State Gamecocks, North Texas Mean Green, Washington State Cougars, Georgia Southern Eagles, Virginia Cavaliers, Massachusetts Minutemen, Michigan State Spartans, Georgia State Panthers, Kansas State Wildcats, Miami (OH) RedHawks, Miami Hurricanes, Ohio State Buckeyes, Air Force Falcons, Tulane Green Wave, Arkansas Razorbacks, Tennessee Volunteers, Temple Owls, Clemson Tigers, App State Mountaineers, Houston Cougars, Iowa State Cyclones, Ole Miss Rebels, South Carolina Gamecocks, Maryland Terrapins, Washington Huskies, Arizona State Sun Devils, Cincinnati Bearcats, Western Michigan Broncos, Coastal Carolina Chanticleers, Colorado Buffaloes, Michigan Wolverines, Delaware Blue Hens, Oklahoma Sooners, California Golden Bears, Utah State Aggies, Buffalo Bulls, Ohio Bobcats, New Mexico State Aggies, Penn State Nittany Lions, Florida State Seminoles, UAB Blazers, Nebraska Cornhuskers, Wake Forest Demon Deacons, Vanderbilt Commodores
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Is it time to start taking Texas Tech linebacker Jacob Rodriguez seriously in the Heisman Trophy conversation? Rodriguez is putting together a historic season for linebacker production while leading a defense that moved back into the No. 1 spot in this week's updated stop rate standings, following a massive victory over BYU in a top-10 showdown. What is stop rate? It's a basic measurement of success: the percentage of a defense's drives that end in punts, turnovers or a turnover on downs. Defensive coordinators have the same goal regardless of their scheme, opponent or conference: prevent points and get off the field. Stop rate is a simple metric but can offer a good reflection of a defense's effectiveness on a per-drive basis in today's faster-tempo game. Stop rate is not an advanced stat and is no substitute for Bill Connelly's SP+, ESPN's FPI or other more comprehensive metrics. It's merely a different method for evaluating success on defense against FBS opponents. Here's the current leaderboard entering Week 12: The Red Raiders are back on top this week with a stop rate of 82.8% against FBS opponents after getting stops on 11 of 12 drives against BYU on Saturday. In their biggest game yet with their Big 12 title game hopes on the line, Texas Tech's defense gave up zero points through three quarters for the fifth time this year. Rodriguez was terrific as always, earning Big 12 Defensive Player of the Week honors for the third time this season after recording 14 tackles, an interception and a fumble recovery against the then-No. 7 Cougars. Afterward, coach Joey McGuire argued there's nobody more deserving of being in the Heisman race. "Guys, the Heisman is given to the best football player," McGuire reminded reporters. "It's not given to the best quarterback; they have awards for that." Rodriguez has compiled 91 tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss, an FBS-high seven forced fumbles, three interceptions, five pass breakups and one defensive touchdown through 10 games. He's among the top 10 nationally in solo tackles (49). He's leading the No. 1 run defense in college football. And he's the No. 1 linebacker in Pro Football Focus grading this season, with the highest scores in both run defense and pass coverage at his position. According to ESPN Research, no other FBS linebacker has compiled 90 tackles, seven forced fumbles and three interceptions in a single season over the past 20 years. That includes Notre Dame's Manti Te'o, who finished with 113 tackles, seven picks and zero forced fumbles as the Heisman runner-up in 2012. Rodriguez's season stat line is going to end up looking quite similar, if not a little better. But will it be enough to contend with Fernando Mendoza, Julian Sayin, Ty Simpson and the top QBs in the country? One stat to keep an eye on: The FBS single-season record is 10 forced fumbles by Louisville's Elvis Dumervil in 2005. Rodriguez has 13 in his career, so he's also four away from breaking the FBS career record of 16 held by Buffalo's Khalil Mack. Here are a few more updates to note regarding this week's stop rate standings: The top 10 defenses in stop rate so far this season if you filter out all nonconference games: Toledo (83.1%), Texas Tech (82.1%), Ohio State (81.1%), San Diego State (81%), SMU (76.3%), Utah (76.1%), Western Michigan (75.9%), Iowa (75.8%), James Madison (75.7%) and Indiana (75.3%). SMU ranked 74th in stop rate at the end of September and has really turned things around in ACC play. San Diego State's defense climbed to No. 2 in stop rate last week but had a tough outing on Saturday in a 38-6 road loss at Hawaii. The Aztecs did pitch a shutout in the second half, but Hawaii scored on a kickoff return touchdown and a pick-six in the third quarter to put the game away. The Aztecs didn't drop much, though, and are No. 3 this week. Vanderbilt dropped from 90th to 100th in stop rate at 56% following its wild 45-38 overtime win over Auburn. It's just another testament to the program-changing greatness of quarterback Diego Pavia. The Commodores' defense currently ranks 14th in the SEC in stop rate (52.6%) during conference play, but that hasn't stopped Pavia from leading this squad on an 8-2 run to CFP contention. Oregon State's defense got stops on 10 of 11 drives against Sam Houston and lost! The Beavers gave up two special teams touchdowns in a 21-17 loss to the no-longer-winless Bearkats. That's about as improbable as it gets. No other defense has achieved stops on 85% of drives or better and lost this season.
Note: All data is courtesy of ESPN Research. Games against FCS opponents and end-of-half drives in which the opponent took a knee or ran out the clock were filtered out.
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