Media days are over. The polls are out. Early reports are that your team is looking absolutely fantastic in fall camp -- they have lots of physicality, and the competition levels are off the charts!
We've passed most of the mile markers in college football's long offseason, and the first games are less than two weeks away. Let's cross another landmark off the list: It's time to release the final preseason SP+ rankings. If you've been following along this offseason, through the initial February release and May update, the top of the rankings won't surprise you very much. But let's take stock one last time before Irish Farmageddon (Iowa State vs. Kansas State in Dublin) kicks off and the 2025 journey begins.
As always: SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and, along those same lines, these projections aren't intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date.
Here are the full rankings (overall, offense, defense and special teams) along with each team's average projected win total and strength-of-schedule ranking.
Since the May rankings, I've continued to update rosters for late transfers and fall camp injuries. But the largest changes came from some tweaking on my end -- some teams with especially noteworthy luck (good or bad) saw some shifts, and after quite a bit of experimenting, I ended up tamping down the overall top-to-bottom spread of points. Translation: The top teams' ratings aren't quite as high as they were in May.
Some noteworthy early projections:
Iowa State vs. Kansas State (-3.5): K-State by 4.8
Texas at Ohio State (-2.5): Buckeyes by 5.5
LSU at Clemson (-4.5): Clemson by 2.6
Notre Dame (-2.5) at Miami: Irish by 1.4
Alabama (-13) at Florida State: Bama by 14.3
Auburn (-2) at Baylor: Auburn by 1.2
For better or worse, all of these are awfully close to the ESPN BET pointspreads.
SP+ vs. conventional wisdom
As has become customary, there aren't many huge differences between SP+ projections and the preseason polls. But there are still some differences worth noting.
(Note: Any references to poll rankings below come from mashing the point totals from the AP and Coaches polls into one ranking. That shouldn't create much confusion since, well, the results of the AP and Coaches polls are quite similar.)
The teams the pollsters like more
Texas Longhorns (No. 1 in the polls, No. 5 in SP+). It's pretty clear that poll voters are assuming greatness from Arch Manning, and that might be exactly what he delivers. But as I've written quite a bit this offseason, anything less than elite QB play might expose the fact that the Longhorns had a lot of holes to fill on the lines and in the receiving corps. Without an Arch Effect adjustment in the algorithm, SP+ sees the Horns as merely one of many potentially elite teams, not the most elite of the bunch.
Clemson Tigers (No. 5 in the polls, No. 10 in SP+). As we'll see below, Clemson is projected to improve rather significantly this season. But since the Tigers have averaged only an SP+ ranking of 18.5 over the last four seasons - and needed major turnovers luck to win the ACC last year -- major improvement simply brings them into the top 10. This is the year when we find out if Dabo Swinney can still build a program with national title upside. SP+ is skeptical.
Illinois Fighting Illini (No. 12 in the polls, No. 27 in SP+). The Illini went 5-1 in one-score games and finished 31st in SP+ despite the lofty 10-win season. Major experience should result in further improvement, but if the close-game bounces go the other way, they won't come anywhere close to a top-15 AP finish.
The Big 12's best in 2024. Arizona State (No. 11 in the polls, No. 30 in SP+), Iowa State (No. 21 in the polls, No. 31 in SP+) and BYU (No. 25 in the polls, No. 36 in SP+) went a combined 33-8 last season, 21-6 in conference play. But they were also a combined 15-5 in one-score games, and that's awfully hard to replicate. All three are projected near the top of the nutty Big 12 again this season, but so are a lot of other teams that didn't get the same bounces.
SEC Network analyst Benjamin Watson breaks down why he believes Ty Simpson is the right choice for Alabama's starting QB and what the Tide must do to prepare for Week 1.
The teams SP+ likes more
Alabama Crimson Tide (No. 8 in the polls, No. 2 in SP+) and Ole Miss Rebels (No. 18 in the polls, No. 9 in SP+). SP+ liked these two teams far more than their record suggested last year -- Ole Miss was second at 10-3, Bama was fourth at 9-4 -- so it probably isn't a surprise that it still does. The Crimson Tide and Rebels went a combined 2-6 in one-score games and 17-1 in all others; their upside was spectacularly high, and that might still be the case, especially for Bama.
Michigan Wolverines (No. 14 in the polls, No. 8 in SP+). I'm struggling with this one. SP+ is basically giving the 2023 national champs the benefit of the doubt, and I'm on board with that when it comes to the Wolverines defense, even if projecting them to have the best defense in the country feels aggressive. But even projecting the offense 37th feels like a bit of a reach with another reset at QB, another round of turnover on the offensive line and very little proven in the skill corps. In this case, I feel like the pollsters might be closer to reality than SP+ is.
The SEC's light heavyweights. Among Tennessee (No. 22 in the polls, No. 12 in SP+), Texas A&M (No. 20 in the polls, No. 13 in SP+), Oklahoma (No. 22 in the polls, No. 15 in SP+), Missouri (No. 31 in the polls, No. 20 in SP+) and Auburn (No. 33 in the polls, No. 22 in SP+), some of these teams are going to lose quite a few games and finish far closer to their poll rankings -- if not below them -- than their SP+ rankings. If nothing else, this pretty clearly spells out the difference between a power ranking like SP+ and the sort of future-facing "Which teams are going to end up with the best records?" exercise a lot of poll voters inevitably deploy.
USC Trojans (No. 30 in the polls, No. 21 in SP+) and Iowa Hawkeyes (No. 34 in the polls, No. 25 in SP+). These two were a lower-class version of Bama and Ole Miss last season - they finished 23rd and 16th, respectively, in SP+, but they went 5-8 in one-score finishes and just 15-11 overall. USC should be pretty similar this season, but I must say I was confused by the almost entire lack of AP votes for Iowa. The offense should be set to improve further, and if we just assume the Hawkeyes will have another strong defense no matter what they lost last season (they've earned that benefit of the doubt), that sounds like a pretty solid team.
SP+ vs. 2024
Let's add some context to the 2025 ratings above by laying out which teams' ratings are projected to change the most from last year.
Largest projected improvement over 2024
Florida State Seminoles (up 13.2 points, 39th overall). Tell me now that FSU ends up either the No. 15 or No. 75 team in the country this year, and I'll believe you. It isn't supposed to be possible for a team to go 13-1 one year and 2-10 the next, so I have no idea what happens next.
Michigan (up 11.0 points, eighth overall). The Wolverines definitely get the benefit of the doubt here. And hey, the quarterback play almost literally can't get worse.
Oklahoma Sooners (up 9.3 points, 15th overall). If the offense rebounds toward its historical norm, this will be a top-20 caliber team again very quickly.
Houston Cougars (up 8.5 points, 63rd overall). After fielding their worst team in 22 years, the Cougs are natural rebound candidates, especially with top-20 returning production.
Texas Tech Red Raiders (up 8.4 points, 29th overall). The Red Raiders spent big on their transfer class, and it bought them their first preseason AP ranking in 17 years. Can it differentiate them in the crowded Big 12?
Clemson (up 6.9 points, 10th overall). The Tigers have the most returning production in the country and are all but guaranteed to improve. But how much?
Southern Miss Golden Eagles (up 6.9 points, 127th overall). That's right, a touchdown's worth of improvement would only bring the Golden Eagles into the high 120s. But progress is still quite likely.
UCLA Bruins (up 6.8 points, 50th overall). I was a bit surprised by this one, if only because UCLA ranks 100th in returning production. But the Bruins' recent history and reasonable recruiting pulls them upward a bit.
Mississippi State Bulldogs (up 6.3 points, 66th overall) and Michigan State Spartans (up 6.2 points, 65th overall). Two more "It probably can't get worse" candidates.
Largest projected regression versus 2024
Bowling Green Falcons (down 12.9 points, 112th overall). Losing your head coach after fielding your best team in a decade is a bad sign, especially when paired with bottom-five returning production. I really like what Eddie George did at Tennessee State, though.
Marshall Thundering Herd (down 12.5 points, 99th overall). The Herd lost coach Charles Huff after fielding their best team in four years, and then a huge portion of the roster hit the transfer portal. Total reset.
Texas State Bobcats (down 12.2 points, 87th overall). The Bobcats are regression candidates primarily because they reached historic highs last year: They were 48th in SP+. It was the first time they'd ever ranked higher than 70th. A 12-point drop, however, feels like a bit much.
Jacksonville State Gamecocks (down 10.6 points, 104th overall). Lowest returning production in the country. That one's pretty self-explanatory.
UNLV Rebels (down 10.4 points, 73rd overall). Making a coaching change, with an almost total roster flip after fielding their best ever FBS team? There's some major regression potential here, even if the roster still has loads of upside (as does new head coach Dan Mullen).
Largest projected regression versus 2024 (Power Four edition)
The largest projected tumbles all come from the Group of Five because, well, life's pretty hard in the G5 at the moment. (See the returning production averages below.) But here are the five power-conference teams projected to fall the most.
Ole Miss (down 5.5 points, ninth overall). That the Rebels are projected to fall only to ninth says a lot about how highly rated they were last season. They have a lot to replace.
Indiana Hoosiers (down 5.4 points, 23rd overall). Recent history obviously drags Curt Cignetti's Hoosiers down a bit after last season's incredible surge, but even if they settle in as merely a top-25 level program, that would be awfully impressive.
Ohio State Buckeyes (down 4.8 points, first overall). Ranking 89th in returning production is actually pretty good for a defending national champ, but some projected regression was inevitable, especially when combined with the tamping down of the top ratings that I mentioned above.
BYU Cougars (down 4.2 points, 36th overall). Losing quarterback Jake Retzlaff over the summer obviously put a late ding on the Cougars' rating.
Oregon Ducks (down 3.7 points, seventh overall). The Ducks are 115th in returning production, 125th on offense. We'll find out just how healthy Dan Lanning's program is this season with that amount of turnover.
Conference power rankings and title odds
SP+ is a team ranking, but it can tell us a lot about conference expectations, too. Let's walk through some of the averages and projections for each conference heading into the fall. Note: The title odds below are quite conservative -- they take into account the possible volatility of each team's projected rating, and teams with heavy transfer totals have even more volatility baked in. Only three projected conference leaders have a greater than 21% chance of a conference title, but maybe that makes sense considering only 22% of last year's projected conference favorites won the crown.
1. SEC
Average rating: 15.6 (up 0.8 points, from 14.8 in 2024)
Average offensive rating: 33.3 (first)
Average defensive rating: 17.7 (first)
Average returning production percentage: 60.7% (second)
Conference title odds: Alabama 13%, Georgia 12%, Texas 11%, Ole Miss 9%, LSU 8%, Tennessee 7%, Texas A&M 7%, Oklahoma 7%, South Carolina 6%, Florida 5%, Missouri 5%, Auburn 4%, Arkansas 3%, Kentucky 2%, Mississippi State 1%, Vanderbilt 1%
If Arch Manning is anything less than the best player in college football, this race could be utterly incredible. Texas, Bama and Georgia having only a combined 36% title chance feels particularly conservative, but with as many close games as we might see this season, something wild is on the table.
2. Big Ten
Average rating: 9.6 (up 1.6 points)
Average offensive rating: 29.1 (fourth)
Average defensive rating: 19.4 (second)
Average returning production percentage: 56.1% (fourth)
Conference title odds: Ohio State 19%, Penn State 15%, Michigan 13%, Oregon 13%, Iowa 6%, Illinois 5%, USC 5%, Indiana 5%, Nebraska 4%, Wisconsin 3%, Washington 3%, Minnesota 2%, UCLA 2%, Rutgers 2%, Michigan State 1%, Maryland 0.8%, Purdue 0.4%, Northwestern 0.3%
The Big Ten is typically more top heavy than the SEC, with more dead weight at the bottom. That's reflected here - the top four teams have a combined 60% title chance, which again feels low but is still far higher than what we see from the SEC.
3. Big 12
Average rating: 7.1 (up 1.8 points)
Average offensive rating: 31.3 (third)
Average defensive rating: 24.2 (third)
Average returning production percentage: 61.4% (first)
Conference title odds: Kansas State 14%, Utah 9%, Arizona State 9%, TCU 9%, Texas Tech 8%, Iowa State 7%, BYU 6%, Baylor 6%, Colorado 5%, Kansas 4%, Houston 4%, Oklahoma State 4%, UCF 4%, West Virginia 4%, Arizona 3%, Cincinnati 3%
Only one team has even a 10% title chance, and everyone's at 3% or higher. Hell yes. I love this conference. Even if it almost certainly won't produce a major national title contender.
4. ACC
Average rating: 6.1 (up 1.0 points)
Average offensive rating: 31.4 (second)
Average defensive rating: 25.3 (fourth)
Average returning production percentage: 59.5% (third)
Conference title odds: Clemson 19%, Miami 14%, SMU 10%, Louisville 9%, Florida State 6%, Virginia Tech 6%, NC State 5%, Duke 5%, Georgia Tech 5%, North Carolina 4%, Pitt 4%, California 4%, Virginia 3%, Boston College 3%, Syracuse 3%, Wake Forest 2%, Stanford 1%
I expected Clemson to be higher here, but games against the No. 3, 4 and 5 contenders (including a road trip to Louisville) do provide at least a little bit of danger. And in a Clemson-Miami ACC title game, the Tigers would be only two-point favorites based on current ratings.
5. American
Average rating: -7.5 (down 2.6 points)
Average offensive rating: 26.2 (fifth)
Average defensive rating: 33.7 (seventh)
Average returning production percentage: 49.9% (sixth)
Conference title odds: Tulane 19%, Memphis 17%, Navy 12%, Army 11%, UTSA 11%, USF 8%, North Texas 6%, East Carolina 5%, FAU 2%, UAB 2%, Rice 2%, Tulsa 1%, Temple 1%, Charlotte 0.8%
Tulane deserves to start out ahead of the pack, but with so many new players, both the Green Wave and No. 2 pick Memphis could see a wide range of outcomes. We aren't that many bounces away from chaos.
6. Sun Belt
Average rating: -8.4 (down 3.0 points)
Average offensive rating: 24.8 (sixth)
Average defensive rating: 33.2 (sixth)
Average returning production percentage: 46.5% (eighth)
Conference title odds: James Madison 20%, Georgia Southern 10%, Louisiana 10%, South Alabama 9%, Coastal Carolina 7%, Troy 7%, Texas State 7%, Appalachian State 7%, Marshall 6%, Old Dominion 5%, Arkansas State 5%, Georgia State 3%, Louisiana-Monroe 3%, Southern Miss 2%
JMU probably should have made the conference title game last year and projects quite well. But if the Dukes drop the ball again, any of about eight different teams could take advantage like Marshall did in 2024.
7. Mountain West
Average rating: -9.0 (down 1.7 points)
Average offensive rating: 23.4 (seventh)
Average defensive rating: 32.4 (fifth)
Average returning production percentage: 46.7% (seventh)
Conference title odds: Boise State 37%, UNLV 14%, San Jose State 10%, Fresno State 8%, Colorado State 6%, Air Force 6%, San Diego State 5%, Hawaii 4%, Wyoming 4%, Utah State 3%, Nevada 2%, New Mexico 2%
Perhaps not surprisingly, BSU is quite easily the single biggest conference title favorite in 2025. But with so much upside and downside, UNLV is a major wildcard.
8. Conference USA
Average rating: -14.0 (down 1.5 points)
Average offensive rating: 19.9 (eighth)
Average defensive rating: 33.9 (ninth)
Average returning production percentage: 50.8% (fifth)
Conference title odds: Liberty 27%, Western Kentucky 17%, Jacksonville State 12%, Louisiana Tech 10%, Sam Houston 9%, UTEP 6%, Middle Tennessee 6%, New Mexico State 6%, Florida International 5%, Kennesaw State 4%. (Delaware and Missouri State are ineligible.)
Like JMU, Liberty blew a great opportunity last year, but with solid returning production numbers the Flames start out atop the CUSA pile again.
9. MAC
Average rating: -14.2 (down 4.4 points)
Average offensive rating: 19.5 (ninth)
Average defensive rating: 33.8 (eighth)
Average returning production percentage: 41.1% (ninth)
Conference title odds: Toledo 26%, Ohio 15%, Buffalo 12%, Miami (Ohio) 11%, Northern Illinois 8%, Bowling Green 6%, Eastern Michigan 6%, Western Michigan 5%, Central Michigan 5%, Ball State 2%, UMass 2%, Kent State 1.7%. (Akron is ineligible.)
With so many MAC teams wrecked by attrition, Toledo starts out as a comfortable favorite. But the Rockets have fallen short as favorites quite a few times before.
Final 2025 returning production rankings
Throughout the offseason, I post updates of my returning production rankings, which (a) are based on percentages that correlate most strongly to year-to-year improvement and regression and (b) include the production of incoming transfers. Here are the final numbers that will be used for 2025:
The major story of returning production in 2025 is how drastically the number has shrunk in recent years.
2021 national average: 76.7%
2022 national average: 62.9%
2023 national average: 60.2%
2024 national average: 59.9%
2025 national average: 53.2%
The average fell for both power conferences (from 65.3% in 2024 to 59.4%) and the Group of 5 (from 54.9% to 47.0%). Obviously COVID eligibility had something to do with this -- after everyone got an extra year of eligibility following the 2020 season, it's taken a while for those extra players to cycle out. But considering the national average tended to hover around 62-63% in the years before COVID, it's clear there's something else going on here, too.
That something else: the transfer portal. Obviously. The churn continues to grow each year, and it continues to hit the Group of 5 much harder, both because a) G5 stars are getting plucked away by power conference programs en masse and b) production from FCS and lower divisions - from which G5 teams might be more likely to pluck - only gets half-credit in the formula.
Based on the current returning production calculation, five of the nine lowest totals since 2022 are from 2025:
2022 Nevada (22%) -- rating fell by 23.9 points
2025 Jacksonville State (28%) - ???
2022 Hawaii (29%) -- rating fell by 16.8 points
2025 Ball State (29%) - ???
2023 Kent State (30%) -- rating fell by 13.1 points
2025 Marshall (30%) - ???
2024 Troy (30%) -- rating fell by 16.4 points
2025 Utah State (31%) - ???
2025 BGSU (31%) - ???
2023 UAB (31%) -- rating fell by 11.6 points
Recent history suggests Jax State, Ball State, Marshall, Utah State and Bowling Green will struggle to come anywhere close to last year's levels. (Ball State might be an exception, as the Cardinals were already awfully bad.)