The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner, and the betting market is loaded with win totals and player props for all 32 teams.
You might already be familiar with my team and player projections, which power our fantasy game, as well as the fantasy football playbook, which publishes each week of the NFL season. Today, we're introducing the NFL betting playbook.
Down below, you'll see several data points for each of the league's 32 teams. They include each team's latest Caesars Sportsbook win-total line and player props, as well as a comparison to my projection for each. I also included some analysis of a few notable lines I'm interested in betting, though this is designed in a way that allows you to pick your own favorites.
Before I dive deep into the individual lines, I think it's important to note that, as it pertains to player props, nothing matters more than health. In fact, health is such a large factor that it's almost the only thing that matters and explains why the under hits on season-long props substantially more than the over.
We can look to the 2022 season for an example of this. Of the 260 Caesars player props available, the results were as follows: 161 under (61.9%), 97 over (37.3%), 2 push (0.8%). Where it gets really interesting is when we split things out by games played. The under hit on 91 out of 97 props (93.8%) for players who appeared in fewer than 15 games, including a perfect 53-for-53 for players under 12 games played. The over hit on 78 out of 121 (64.5%) bets for players who appeared in at least 16 games.
Yes, that is real. Yes, that is alarming. Is the perfect prop strategy simply to bet the under on every single prop and profit? Perhaps, but when you consider the limits on prop bets and the fact that you're also loaning out money for several months, the payoff probably isn't worth the hassle. That said, the below tables will allow you to pick and choose which win totals and props you find most enticing this season.
Note that these projections can be best described as median projections (we're trying simply to identify over or under a specific number), as opposed to mean projections shown in the fantasy game. That explains the slight gap in the two numbers.
All lines are via Caesars Sportsbook
Jump to:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
AFC EAST
Buffalo Bills
Over/under: 10.5 wins (-145/+120)
Mike Clay's projection: OVER (11.4)
Josh Allen UNDER 4,300.5 passing yards (-115): Allen cleared this mark in both 2020 and 2021 but didn't miss a single game over that stretch. Had he missed even one start (using his weekly average as a benchmark), he would have fallen short of 4,301 passing yards. In 2022, Allen did miss one game (a canceled game vs. Cincinnati) and did fall short. Obviously Allen has been durable and the one missed game wasn't his fault but, if you make this bet, you're essentially assuming a 17-game season. That's a hard bet to recommend considering only eight QBs played 17 games in 2022 and just 11 did so in 2021. There's some gamesmanship here, but props are often about playing the odds -- and the odds certainly favor the under here.
Damien Harris UNDER 525.5 rushing yards (-115): While in New England, Harris hit this mark in both 2020 and 2021 but fell short during an injury-plagued 2022 campaign. Harris fell behind Rhamondre Stevenson last season, even when healthy, and he's now set to battle with Latavius Murray for touches behind new Bills lead back James Cook. Harris is moving to a pass-heavy Buffalo offense that ranks dead last in RB carries (891) over the past three seasons combined (891) and in 2022 alone (291). The 26-year-old back has missed significant preseason action while battling a knee injury, which just adds to the under appeal.
Miami Dolphins
Over/under: 9.5 wins (-105/-115)
Mike Clay's projection: OVER (10.5)
Tua Tagovailoa OVER 3825.5 passing yards (-115): Tagovailoa's concussion issues are a concern, so I understand if you want to stay away from this one. However, check this out: If we look at Tagovailoa's 12 full games last season, his 17-game pace was 4,870 yards. That's more than 1,000 yards above this prop! Not enough of a sample? Fair. During his 11 full games in 2021, his 17-game pace was 3,836 yards, which is also above this line. Tagovailoa finished third in average depth of throw, second in QBR and first in yards per passing attempt last season. Even with a 15-game projection and worse efficiency, Tagovailoa projects to finish above this prop line.
Dolphins OVER 9.5 wins (-105): Speaking of Tagovailoa's terrific efficiency, if he's healthy this season, Miami shouldn't have much trouble clearing 9.5 wins. In fact, the Dolphins started last season 8-0 in games in which their No. 1 quarterback played in full, only to fall off late in the year during a tough stretch that included road games at the 49ers, Chargers and Bills. Miami's offense looks solid, but what really makes this over appealing is a defense that is among the league's best on paper. The unit is led by Bradley Chubb (entering his first full season with the team), Christian Wilkins, Jaelan Phillips, Jerome Baker, Xavien Howard and Jevon Holland, not to mention that Jalen Ramsey is expected back from his injury at some point during the season. New defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has all the personnel needed for an elite unit. Even in what might be a tough division and conference, betting the over is enticing.
New York Jets
Over/under: 9.5 wins (-125/+105)
Mike Clay's projection: OVER (9.7)
Breece Hall UNDER 750.5 rushing yards (-115): Hall would have blown by this mark last season if not for a torn ACL, as he was on a 17-game pace of more than 1,100 yards prior to that Week 7 injury. That said, this is still a high bar for a player one year removed from such a substantial injury. The Jets signed Dalvin Cook in August, and the veteran back is expected to play a significant role as a rusher, especially early in the season. It's possible that Hall gets back to full health and blows past this number, but with Cook in the house, combined with the injury risk, this is an easy fade.
New England Patriots
Over/under: 7.5 wins (+115/-135)
Mike Clay's projection: UNDER (6.9)
Matthew Judon UNDER 11.5 sacks (-120): Judon failed to reach double-digit sacks during each of his first five NFL seasons prior to posting 12.5 and 15.5 totals during his two seasons in New England. Health has been a factor in the spike, as he played more than 800 snaps both seasons and is one of only 56 defenders to appear in all 34 games from 2021 to '22. Judon posted a career-high sack total in 2022 despite his pass-rush win rate sinking from 17.8% to 12.5%. It might seem like I'm penalizing Judon for durability, but it's hard to hold up for a full season and reach 11 sacks (just 16 players did in 2022 after only 12 did so in 2021). The under seems like the safe play for the 31-year-old linebacker.
Rhamondre Stevenson UNDER 875.5 rushing yards (-115): Stevenson ran for 1,040 yards in 2022, but that required hard-to-sustain efficiency (5.0 YPC) and substantial missed time by running mate Damien Harris (out six games and limited in several others). Stevenson will remain New England's lead back, but he'll be busy in passing situations and will defer plenty of carries to newcomer Ezekiel Elliott (231-plus carries in all seven of his NFL seasons). Betting the over here feels like betting on Stevenson playing in 16 or 17 games -- and that's unappealing.
AFC NORTH
Cincinnati Bengals
Over/under: 11.5 wins (+110/-140)
Mike Clay's projection: UNDER (11.2)
Tee Higgins OVER 70.5 receptions (-115): Higgins has caught exactly 74 passes in each of the past two seasons despite missing a total of four games during the span. In fact, he caught 74 last season despite missing one full game (the cancelled game against Buffalo) and the better part of three others (two total targets in those three outings). Even if we exclude games missed by Ja'Marr Chase, Higgins' 17-game reception pace was 86.9 in healthy games. Higgins benefits from Joe Burrow's accuracy, as well as plenty of target volume in the intermediate area. A season of 15-plus games from Higgins figures to result in 80-plus receptions.
Baltimore Ravens
Over/under: 9.5 wins (-180/+150)
Mike Clay's projection: OVER (10.3)
Lamar Jackson UNDER 3425.5 pass yards (-115): Not only has Jackson never reached this passing yardage total, his career high of 3,127 yards was set during his MVP campaign in 2019. Jackson was on a 17-game pace of 4,427 yards in 2021 and 3,448 yards in 2022, but he missed five games in both seasons and has still yet to appear in every game of a season since taking over as Baltimore's starter. Even in an offense likely to pass more, Jackson's scrambling ability and durability concerns point toward the under here.
Rashod Bateman UNDER 600.5 receiving yards (-115): This is a shockingly high line for a wide receiver who has posted totals of 515 yards and 285 yards in his two NFL seasons. Bateman has struggled with durability, playing in just 18 of a possible 34 regular-season games. Plus, he has substantially more target competition this season, with Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr. joining Mark Andrews on the Ravens' roster. The 2021 first-round pick has an uphill climb to reach this mark.
Cleveland Browns
Over/under: 9.5 wins (+110/-130)
Mike Clay's projection: OVER (10.0)
Browns OVER 9.5 wins (+110): The Browns are really good on paper, so even in an extremely tough AFC, this is a bet on pure roster talent at plus money. Deshaun Watson is entering his first full season in Cleveland behind an elite line and with an improved group of pass-catchers led by Amari Cooper. The defense added Dalvin Tomlinson, Za'Darius Smith, Juan Thornhill and Shelby Harris to a group that includes Myles Garrett and a terrific cornerback trio. Cleveland surprised with 11 wins in 2020, and this team is even better, so double-digit victories is well within reach.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Over/under: 9.0 wins (-115/-105) Over
Mike Clay's projection: OVER (9.6)
Kenny Pickett OVER 17.5 passing TDs (-125): This prop is so low because Pickett was limited to only seven passing TDs as a rookie, but first-year struggles are the norm for quarterbacks. In fact, recent history has taught us that QBs selected in the first round are often good bets for a Year 2 leap in touchdowns. Examples from the past decade include Carson Wentz (17 more touchdowns in Year 2), Jared Goff (23), Trevor Lawrence (13), Mitch Trubisky (17), Blake Bortles (24), Joe Burrow (21), Lamar Jackson (30), Justin Fields (10) and Josh Allen (10). Pickett is working behind a much better offensive line and has a good group of targets led by Diontae Johnson, George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth.
AFC SOUTH
Jacksonville Jaguars
Over/under: 10.0 wins (+122/-145)
Mike Clay's projection: UNDER (8.9)
Christian Kirk OVER 4.5 receiving TDs (-115): Kirk is coming off a career year in which he hauled in eight scores, but the 26-year-old wideout has actually caught five-plus TDs in three consecutive seasons (twice with Arizona, once with Jacksonville). Kirk's usage reflects the TD totals, as he has been between 5.0 and 6.8 expected TDs and has handled either seven or eight end zone targets in each of the three seasons. Calvin Ridley is sure to cost Kirk some targets, but Kirk will have enough of a role in an ascending offense to push for a half-dozen trips to the end zone.
Tennessee Titans
Over/under: 7.5 wins (-120/+100)
Mike Clay's projection: UNDER (7.1)
Titans UNDER 7.5 wins (+100): The Titans are coming off a 7-10 season that ended with a seven-game losing streak. Granted, Ryan Tannehill missed some action, but the team wasn't exactly lighting it up when he played (a 6-6 record, with all six of those wins coming against non-playoff teams -- the Raiders, Commanders, Broncos, Packers, and two wins over the Colts). The 2023 roster includes what is arguably the league's worst offensive line and, while the offense has some star power in DeAndre Hopkins (31) and Derrick Henry (29), both are past the usual prime for their respective positions. The defense also has some star power (Jeffery Simmons, Kevin Byard), but there are enough concern areas that this is likely to be, at best, an average unit. The AFC is absolutely loaded, so the Titans' path to the playoffs would likely mean beating up on their AFC South opponents. That's possible, but I'll take the under at even money.
Indianapolis Colts
Over/under: 6.5 wins (-115/-105)
Mike Clay's projection: OVER (6.9)
Michael Pittman Jr. UNDER 800.5 receiving yards (-115): Pittman has cleared this line in both of the past two seasons (1,082 in 2021, 925 in 2022), but he appeared in 33 out of 34 games. Now, his target volume is in major jeopardy as the Colts turn to rookie QB and skilled runner Anthony Richardson. It's easy to suggest the Colts' QB play will be better in 2023 than it was in 2022, but consider this: In 2022, Colts QBs completed 65% of their passes and averaged 6.4 yards per pass attempt. Over the past decade, first-round rookie QBs completed 61% of their passes and posted a 6.7 YPA. Passing efficiency might be a problem for Indianapolis this year, especially considering Richardson's collegiate struggles and inexperience, but volume will be as well. The Colts ranked eighth in the league with 604 passing attempts in 2022, but with Richardson likely to scramble a ton, they project for just 503 attempts this season. Even with a similar target share to past seasons, Pittman might struggle to rack up yardage.
Houston Texans
Over/under: 6.5 wins (+125/-150)
Mike Clay's projection: UNDER (6.3)
C.J. Stroud UNDER 19.0 passing TDs (-130): Much like fellow newcomer Bryce Young, Stroud's absurdly high opening lines for yardage and TDs have plummeted over the past few months. Alas, this TD line is still too high, as only 20 rookie QBs have reached 20 TDs in league history (four others reached 19, but we're not in the business of giving interest-free loans here). Since the league moved to a 17-game regular season in 2021, only Mac Jones (22) has cleared 16 passing TDs as a rookie. Part of the issue is the learning curve, but another aspect is injury, as only nine rookie QBs have appeared in 16-plus games over the past decade. Reaching 19 TDs might seem like a low bar, but only 14 QBs actually reached that threshold in 2022.
AFC WEST
Kansas City Chiefs
Over/under: 11.5 wins (-140/+118)
Mike Clay's projection: OVER (11.6)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling UNDER 650.5 receiving yards (-115): Valdes-Scantling produced 687 yards on a career-high 80 targets last season. That is an unimpressive number of targets for a player who appeared in 17 games and ranked 27th among WRs in routes, but it's about as expected for a player who has settled in as a clear situational deep threat. He has ranked top five in aDOT but bottom five in catch rate in each of the past four seasons. MVS has cleared this line only twice in his career, and his role is unlikely to increase as youngsters Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney and Rashee Rice get up to speed in Kansas City.
Los Angeles Chargers
Over/under: 9.5 wins (-140/+120)
Mike Clay's projection: OVER (10.0)
Mike Williams OVER 57.5 receptions (-115): The Chargers added Quentin Johnston in the first round of April's draft, but this is still a surprisingly low number for a standout wide receiver who has posted reception totals of 76 and 63 in the past two seasons despite missing five games (and leaving three games early) during this span. Williams has a history of missing time with just one full season in six tries, but it's only a little bit of missed time (seven total missed games over the past five seasons). The big man is still in his prime at age 28 and remains locked into a big role in the Chargers' pass-heavy offense.
Denver Broncos
Over/under number: 8.5 wins (-105/-115)
Mike Clay's projection: UNDER (8.4)
Courtland Sutton OVER 4.5 receiving TDs (+115): Sutton has scored a total of four TDs in 32 games over the last two seasons, but that was partially due to Denver's offensive woes and partially related to some really bad luck. Sutton has been pretty busy near the goal line, posting a 5.1 expected TD total in 2021 (two actual TDs) and 6.6 xTD in 2022 (also two actual TDs). In fact, Sutton handled a career-high 13 end zone targets last season (fifth-most among WRs) and has seen 11-plus end zone targets in three of his four "full" pro seasons. The Denver offense averaged 1.8 touchdowns per game last season, whereas new coach Sean Payton has never had an offense below 2.4 TDs per game. In fact, at least one wide receiver has caught five-plus scores in all 15 of Payton's seasons as a head coach. Despite Sutton's struggles in recent years, the "over" is enticing at plus money.
Las Vegas Raiders
Over/under: 6.5 wins (+110/-130)
Mike Clay's projection: UNDER (5.8)
Tyree Wilson UNDER 6.0 sacks (-150): Wilson was the seventh overall pick in April's draft, but he could miss regular season action (and/or will be very limited) as he continues to recover from offseason foot surgery. Once he is ready to go, he'll begin his career behind 33-year-old Chandler Jones and every-down Maxx Crosby. Six sacks is certainly within reach (over the last five seasons, 10 edge rushers selected in the first round recorded at least 6.0 sacks), but the missed offseason playing time and the competition for snaps suggests we should roll with the "under" here.
NFC EAST
Philadelphia Eagles
Over/under: 11.5 wins (+110/-130)
Mike Clay's projection: UNDER (11.2)
Jalen Hurts UNDER 725.5 rushing yards (-115): Can a healthy Hurts hit this mark? Absolutely! He has done so in each of the past two seasons (784 yards in 2021, 760 in 2022) thanks to a hefty 304 carries in 30 games. Of course, 726 rushing yards has been achieved by a quarterback only 19 times in league history and, if Hurts hits this mark in 2023, he'll be only the third QB to do it more than twice (Lamar Jackson 4, Michael Vick 3). The under is the safe call here, especially for a player who has never played more than 15 games in a single season.
D'Andre Swift OVER 3.5 rushing TDs (-140): This is a surprisingly low number for a running back who has scored at least five rushing TDs in all three of his NFL seasons -- and that's despite having yet to clear 151 carries or 14 games played in a single campaign. Swift played behind a good line in Detroit, but he's now working with an even better one (perhaps the league's best) and might be first in line for touches in an offense that ranked first in rushing TDs, expected rushing TDs and carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line in 2022. Swift is known more for his receiving, but his primary competition for goal line work will be the oft-injured Rashaad Penny (13 career rush TDs) and 191-pound Kenneth Gainwell.
Dallas Cowboys
Over/under: 10.0 wins (-150/+126)
Mike Clay's projection: OVER (11.0)
Micah Parsons UNDER 13.5 sacks (-140): Parsons has posted sack totals of 13.0 and 13.5 during his first two NFL seasons while appearing in 33 out of a possible 34 games and playing over 80% of defensive snaps. Parsons is one of the league's top defenders, but it required elite play, elite playing time and near-perfect health just to get in the vicinity of this line. Especially considering he still gets some off-ball run, this is a solid under play, even at -140.
New York Giants
Over/under: 7.5 wins (-105/-115)
Mike Clay's projection: UNDER (7.4)
Darren Waller OVER 4.5 receiving TDs (+110): The veteran tight end has reached five scores only once in his career (nine in 2020), but that doesn't tell the whole story. He was very unlucky in this category in both 2021 and 2022, having handled eight end zone targets in both seasons, despite missing a total of 14 games during the stretch. Waller has posted expected TD totals of 7.7, 5.2 and 5.7 over the past three seasons, all of which sit above this prop line. Plus, those latter two numbers would have been substantially higher if not for the missed time. If you're buying a healthier season from Waller, this is an easy over call, especially at plus money.
Daniel Jones over 17.5 passing TDs (-115): Jones tossed 24 TDs as a rookie back in 2019 (the fifth most ever thrown by a rookie), so it's a bit of a head-scratcher that he has been held to 11, 10 and 15 passing scores over the past three seasons. In fact, the Giants are dead last in the NFL in passing TDs during this most recent three-year stretch. The good news is that Jones is a candidate for a leap forward thanks to an improved supporting cast led by Waller and Parris Campbell. Jones also scored an unsustainable number of rushing TDs (seven), some of which could flip to passes in 2023.
Washington Commanders
Over/under: 6.5 wins (+115/-135)
Mike Clay's projection: UNDER (5.5)
Commanders UNDER 6.5 wins (-135): The Commanders have been the definition of mediocre, having won at least seven games in seven of the past eight seasons, but failing to post a record above .500 since 2016. A good defense has often kept them afloat, and that could be the case again in 2023, as their line remains elite and can help cover up an average back seven. The big concern is an offense that will be led by Sam Howell -- a 2022 fifth-round pick with just 19 career NFL passing attempts. Perhaps Howell is a diamond in the rough (and he'll have a good WR room to work with), but history says he's a long shot for success, especially as he'll need to overcome a shaky line. I'm fading this team, especially in a division with two (and perhaps three) playoff teams.
NFC NORTH
Detroit Lions
Over/under: 9.5 wins (-130/+100)
Mike Clay's projection: UNDER (8.2)
Lions UNDER 9.5 wins (+100): Detroit is the hot 2023 breakout team, but this a roster that still has several areas of concern. One of them is under center, as Jared Goff was terrific last season (seventh in QBR) but poor the year before (29th), which continues his career pattern of inconsistency. Detroit is also a bit short on established pass-catching talent and, while the defense is improved, there are concerns/uncertainties on all levels aside from edge rusher. Detroit has an average roster on paper, so while 9-10 wins is possible, the under seems like the savvier play at even money.
Aidan Hutchinson UNDER 10.5 sacks (-130): Hutchinson racked up 9.5 sacks as a rookie despite appearing in all 17 games and playing on a massive 85% of the snaps. Though he certainly has the look of an emerging star, Hutchinson could actually play fewer snaps this season considering the Lions' outstanding edge rusher depth. Perhaps Hutchinson will improve on his 12.0% pass rush win rate (which is a little below average for an edge rusher) and make this look silly, but 11 sacks is still a high bar that only 16 players reached in 2022.
Minnesota Vikings
Over/under: 8.5 wins (-125/+105)
Mike Clay's projection: UNDER (8.2)
Kirk Cousins UNDER 29.5 passing TDs (-115): Cousins has thrown for 30-plus scores in three of his five seasons since joining the Vikings. One of the exceptions was a 2022 campaign in which he fell just short (29) despite appearing in all 17 games. Cousins' durability has been terrific (15-plus games played in eight straight seasons), and he has averaged 29.3 passing TDs per year during this span. The Minnesota offense is in good shape, so a healthy Cousins will again be in this range, but his ceiling is in the low 30s and his projection checks in just short once we add a little injury risk.
Chicago Bears
Over/under: 7.5 wins (-150/+130)
Mike Clay's projection: OVER (7.7)
Justin Fields OVER 18.5 passing TDs (-110): Fields tossed 17 touchdowns in 15 games last season, falling just short of this line despite an extremely shaky group of targets. He'll have more help in 2023, with DJ Moore joining Chase Claypool (entering his first full season with Chicago) and a healthy Darnell Mooney, not to mention TE Cole Kmet. Assuming he makes a leap forward as a passer, this line is low enough that Fields could conceivably miss time and still clear it with ease.
Green Bay Packers
Over/under: 7.5 wins (-140/+120)
Mike Clay's projection: UNDER (7.4)
Packers UNDER 7.5 wins (+120): My win total projection (7.4) is very close to this line, but finishing 7-10 is a very real possibility for a team that went 8-9 last season with Aaron Rodgers that will now turn to an unknown in Jordan Love. Even if Love exceeds expectations, he'll be working with an extremely young group of pass-catchers of players who entered the league in either 2022 or 2023. Perhaps a solid Packers defense will get them over .500, but this one is very enticing at plus money.
Christian Watson OVER 5.5 receiving TDs (+110) and OVER 850.5 receiving yards (+100): Watson is one of my personal favorite breakout players this season, so landing both of these overs at even or plus money is extremely appealing. The aforementioned Green Bay youth movement means Watson should be Love's clear No. 1 target. He caught seven TDs in eight games as a full-time player in his rookie season, and his 65.4 receiving yards per game during that stretch extrapolates to 1,112 yards over 17 games. We're making a bet on a breakout season here, but it's a logical one as the 2022 second-round pick enters his second pro season.
NFC SOUTH
New Orleans Saints
Over/under: 9.5 wins (+105/-125)
Mike Clay's projection: OVER (10.2)
Chris Olave OVER 4.5 receiving TDs (-150): Olave was held to just four touchdowns as a rookie, but his usage near the goal line figures to increase with a better quarterback (Derek Carr) in his second season. The 2022 first-round pick appears to be the real deal, having handled a massive 27% target share as a rookie while posting a 2.5 YPRR (seventh best among all WRs) despite ranking 68th at the position in snaps. Five receiving scores isn't a high bar, especially for a No. 1 wide receiver, as 45 players hit this mark in 2022. With Carr now under center, Olave should be able to push for a half-dozen scores.
Saints OVER 9.5 wins (+105): The Saints are an average team on paper, but that's good enough to be the best in the NFC South, and they have the league's easiest schedule. Consider the quarterbacks on their slate: Bryce Young (twice), Desmond Ridder (twice), Baker Mayfield/Kyle Trask (twice), Ryan Tannehill, Jordan Love, Mac Jones, C.J. Stroud, Trevor Lawrence, Anthony Richardson, Justin Fields, Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff, Daniel Jones and Matthew Stafford. Note that this list does not include a single meeting with stars Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott, Tua Tagovailoa or Aaron Rodgers. With the combination of Carr under center for New Orleans, a good defense and this schedule, the over for the Saints is worth considering at plus money.
Atlanta Falcons
Over/under: 8.5 wins (-140/+120)
Mike Clay's projection: UNDER (7.4)
Falcons UNDER 8.5 wins (+120): With no clear standout team, the NFC South is as close as you'll get to a wide-open division, but 8.5 is still too high a win total for Atlanta. In fact, my projection (7.4) factors in what I project as the league's second-easiest schedule and we're still getting this at plus money. The Falcons haven't won even eight games since 2017 and, while the roster did improve during the offseason, major holes remain, including at wide receiver, edge rusher, cornerback, linebacker and, most notably, quarterback. Second-year QB Desmond Ridder has attempted a mere 115 passes in his career, and his only two TDs in 2022 came against Tampa Bay backups in Week 18. Could he make a Year 2 leap? Sure, but third-round QBs don't have a very good track record. Russell Wilson is a rare success story from the past decade or so, with the likes of Matt Schaub, Nick Foles, Mike Glennon and Jacoby Brissett being the best-case scenario otherwise.
Bijan Robinson UNDER 8.5 rushing TDs (-115): Reaching nine rushing scores as a rookie running back is certainly attainable. It has happened 22 times over the past 20 seasons. Still, it's obviously a pretty high bar (only 10 total RBs hit the mark in 2022 after just eight did so in 2021). The eighth overall pick of April's draft, Robinson will play a massive offensive role out of the gate, but he's a skilled receiver and will defer significant carries to 224-pound Tyler Allgeier (and perhaps Cordarrelle Patterson). Even in a run-heavy Atlanta scheme, the under is the safe play.
Carolina Panthers
Over/under: 7.5 wins (+110/-130)
Mike Clay's projection: UNDER (7.1)
Bryce Young UNDER 22.5 passing TDs (-145): This might be my favorite play in this piece. Young, the first overall pick in April's draft, actually opened with a 24.5 line, so this one is already on the descent. Yet, it's still too high considering that, in league history, only seven rookie QBs have reached 23 passing scores (Justin Herbert, Baker Mayfield, Russell Wilson, Peyton Manning, Daniel Jones, Dak Prescott and Andrew Luck). The league has expanded to 17 games since those performances, but check this out: In each of the last two seasons, only 13 QBs reached 23 passing TDs, most which were delivered by QBs on playoff teams. Even in a light division, Carolina (a team that has reached 23 passing TDs in only one of the past seven seasons), is not a favorite for a trip to the postseason. As if that's not enough, Young's supporting cast remains a work in progress, with Adam Thielen, DJ Chark Jr., Hayden Hurst and rookie Jonathan Mingo as his top targets.
Miles Sanders UNDER 6.5 rushing TDs (-155): Sanders ran for 11 touchdowns last season, but his first three NFL seasons saw him score three, seven and zero rushing TDs -- and that was behind an elite Eagles offensive line, not a Carolina unit that looks, at best, like a league-average unit entering 2023. Sanders has not generally been much of a factor near the goal line, as 2022 marked his first season finishing inside the top 30 at running back in carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line. He's also headed to an inferior offense, as the 2022 Eagles scored 57 offensive TDs (second most), whereas Carolina scored 32, well behind the NFL median for offensive TDs, which is in the 37-38 range.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Over/under: 6.5 wins (+120/-140)
Mike Clay's projection: UNDER (6.4)
Rachaad White OVER 750.5 rushing yards (-115): White is set to replace Leonard Fournette as the lead back in Tampa Bay. Asking for more than 750 yards from an unproven player might seem risky, but it's actually not too high of a bar: 32 running backs produced 751-plus yards last season. With Chase Edmonds and Ke'Shawn Vaughn as his top competition for carries, White should push for 200-plus carries, which, with average efficiency, would push him over 800 yards.
NFC WEST
San Francisco 49ers
Over/under number: 10.5 wins (-160/+140)
Mike Clay's projection: OVER (11.1)
Brandon Aiyuk OVER 4.5 receiving TDs (-115): From a fantasy perspective, I'm actually a bit lower than most on Aiyuk (QB and volume-ceiling concerns), but my TD projection is still at about this line. Aiyuk has finished all three of his NFL seasons with at least five scores. That includes a rookie campaign in which he missed five games, as well as 2021 season in which he opened the season buried on the depth chart. Aiyuk was definitely lucky in the scoring department last year (eight TDs despite only 3.7 expected and only three end zone targets), but more goal line work seems likely. He had 17 end zone targets during his first two seasons, and he should maintain a similar role to the one that allowed him 114 total targets in 2022.
Seattle Seahawks
Over/under number: 9.0 wins (+100/-120)
Mike Clay's projection: UNDER (8.8)
Tyler Lockett OVER 4.5 receiving TDs (-160): This is a shockingly low number for the only player in the league who has caught at least eight touchdowns in five consecutive seasons. Last season, Lockett found the end zone nine times despite concerns about a drop-off following the offseason departure of Russell Wilson. Lockett has now seen at least nine end zone targets in four straight seasons, ranking top 20 at wide receiver all four years. The juice is ugly here, but especially with Jaxon Smith-Njigba battling a wrist injury, this one feels like a strong play.
Arizona Cardinals
Over/under number: 4.5 wins (+130/-160)
Mike Clay's projection: OVER (4.8)
James Conner OVER 5.5 rushing TDs (-130): Conner has scored at least six rushing TDs in four of the past five seasons, including three straight. In fact, the veteran back has often easily cleared this mark, posting TD totals of 12, 6, 15 and 7 in the three seasons in which he has started and played in 13-plus games. Arizona's offense might struggle this season, especially with Kyler Murray sidelined, but note that Conner scored six rushing TDs in six games without Murray last season, averaging 16.2 carries per game during those contests.
Los Angeles Rams
Over/under number: 6.5 wins (+105/-125)
Mike Clay's projection: UNDER (4.8)
Rams UNDER 6.5 wins (-125): This is a high number for a team that went 5-12 last season and got much worse on paper during the offseason. Yes, Matthew Stafford missed nearly half the season, but check this out: The Rams went 3-6 with Stafford under center, with wins against the Falcons, Cardinals and Panthers, and their losses to good teams (San Francisco twice, Dallas and Buffalo) were all by 12-plus points. The offense is very shaky beyond the Stafford-to-Cooper Kupp battery, and the defense is about as rough as you'll find on paper -- all six defenders who played 600-plus snaps for the team in 2022 have departed and the top veteran replacements were John Johnson III and Ahkello Witherspoon. This team will be leaning on a ton of late draft picks and undrafted players and has a realistic shot at the first overall pick in the 2024 draft.
Stafford OVER 3,575.0 passing yards (-130): I clearly expect the Rams to struggle this season, but Stafford is healthy and back as the clear-cut starting QB, so this number is extremely low. In fact, he has cleared this line in 10 out of 12 seasons since taking over as Detroit's starter in 2011. The exceptions were 2019 and 2022 (eight missed games both seasons). Stafford's YPA plummeted to 6.9 last season, yet he was still on a 17-game pace for 4,097 yards. Assuming his efficiency rebounds at least slightly, Stafford could miss two or three games and still hit this mark, especially because the Rams will need to throw it a ton because of their very shaky defense.
Kupp UNDER 8.5 receiving TDs: Believe it or not, Kupp has reached nine receiving scores only twice in his career. He fell short last season and, while that was primarily because of injury (he caught six in nine games), durability is a concern for a 30-year-old receiver who has missed multiple games in four out of six seasons. A healthy Stafford could help Kupp over this mark, but keep in mind that this offense was struggling regardless of the quarterback last season (Stafford threw 10 TDs in nine games). Also, nine TD receptions is a bit of a high bar. Only seven wide receivers hit that mark in 2022. Kupp has a path to a big target share and perhaps massive yardage, but that doesn't always guarantee a big touchdown total. We saw that in play last season when Justin Jefferson was limited to just eight TDs despite leading all receivers in routes, targets, receptions and yardage. Note that this prop was pulled off the books because Kupp is battling an injury, but keep an eye out as it might pop back up if he's cleared to play in Week 1.