It's hardly a surprise to see the news that Texas A&M quarterback Johnny Manziel will be foregoing his remaining collegiate eligibility to enter the 2014 NFL draft. From his eventful 2013 offseason (including an NCAA investigation into whether he was paid to sign autographs, which would have been a violation of NCAA rules, that turned up no wrongdoing but still resulted in a one-half game suspension against Rice) to his comments following the conclusion of the season, there seemed to be little doubt that Manziel was ready to begin his pro career. And perhaps most importantly, he's shown enough improvement in his game this season to improve his draft stock.
He's poised to become the "face" of the 2014 draft, if you will, because of the differing opinions about him as a player and the interest that surrounds him off the field. How high will he go in the draft? Let's take a look.
Most draft evaluations of Manziel focus on what he isn't, so let's instead start this one with a look at what he does bring as a prospect. He possesses unique improvisational skills (his closest resemblance in that regard, at least in my lifetime, is to Doug Flutie) and has the quickness, speed and instincts as a runner/scrambler that make him a nightmare to bring down, both in the pocket and in the open field when he takes off. He recorded 555 rushing yards on scrambles this season, 197 more than any other QB from a BCS AQ team. I'm not a big stats guy, particularly when it comes to quarterbacks' rushing, but that's hard to ignore.
Manziel has also shown significant improvement as a passer this season, displaying more of a comfort level when throwing from the pocket, improved arm strength as a result of better mechanics and more consistency with his ball placement and accuracy. Also, it's worth noting that despite all the comments about his character and leadership ability (more on that in a bit), it really does seem as though his teammates feed off the passion and energy with which he plays.
Of course, as we noted earlier, Manziel isn't a perfect QB prospect. He is only 6 feet tall, and while I don't have huge concerns about his ability to see over the line and make throws, given his size, durability is going to be a concern for him. He held up remarkably well in a conference as physical as the SEC, given the number of hits he takes, but we did see him start to get banged up a bit toward the end of this season. Ball security is a concern, as well, as he needs to do a better job of protecting the football when scrambling in the pocket and when attempting to elude defenders as an open-field runner.
Manziel figures to be one of the most discussed prospects in this year's draft class because of his high profile and the attention paid this past offseason to his off-field behavior. I think the interview process will be particularly important with him. Some teams will undoubtedly be turned off by his swagger, but my guess is that those teams will be in the vast minority. When it's all said and done, teams have a bottom line to meet that is decided by wins and losses; if teams feel as though Manziel can help them win, they'll have no problem putting up with the media circus and off-the-field attention that has surrounded Manziel in the past.
In fact, I think the much bigger focus -- as it pertains to Manziel's "off-field exploits" -- will be on Manziel's commitment to the game. Teams are going to do some serious digging into Manziel's work ethic during his days at College Station. Very few teams are willing to invest the required money and time into a quarterback who does not project to be a "first guy in, last guy out" type of workaholic. I'm not saying that Manziel lacks that kind of work ethic, and I actually think it's pretty obvious that Manziel worked at his game this offseason, given the improvement we saw on tape this year. But after talking to several NFL scouts and executives in the past month, I know that teams are determined to get a clearer picture of what Manziel is doing with his time.
Right now, we have Manziel ranked as the No. 3 QB in this class (behind Louisville's Teddy Bridgewater and UCF's Blake Bortles), and the No. 18 prospect overall, which puts him on the outer edge of the first round in terms of his grade. But when projecting where he could fall in the draft, it's important to remember that it will take only one team with a high draft pick falling in love with him for him to be selected early. Of the top eight teams in the draft order, you could make an argument that as many as six have a need at the QB position (Houston, Jacksonville, Cleveland, Oakland, Minnesota and possibly Tampa Bay). So it's certainly not out of the question that Manziel could land in the top five or top 10 picks.
I had him going fourth overall to the Jacksonville Jaguars in my first mock draft on Dec. 18, and I had him going fourth overall to the Cleveland Browns when I issued my new top five to "SportsCenter" on Dec. 30, based on the updated draft order. (No teams have yet had the chance to fully evaluate Manziel, or any of the other top QB prospects for that matter, so this is more to show what his potential draft position is based on the grade we have on him right now and the needs of the teams picking early.)
There's a long way to go in the evaluation process of the 2014 draft class -- and Manziel's stock will be a particularly interesting one to watch as the process unfolds.