The nation's top high school prospect, Marvin Bagley III, announced live Monday night on SportsCenter that he will be attending Duke as a member of the class of 2017. He chose the Blue Devils over USC and UCLA.
Why he committed: This decision, both the timing and destination, was based on getting to the NBA as quickly as possible and putting himself in the best possible position to be the top overall pick. Bagley spoke about head coach Mike Krzyzewski's ability to get players to the next level. That history has been written over decades at Duke, but the reality is that in recent years in particular, Duke has embraced the one-and-done model and had as much success with it as anyone in the country. The Blue Devils provide Bagley with arguably the biggest stage in college basketball, the opportunity to play for the most well-known college coach of his generation, and the best chance to compete for both a national championship and the top overall pick in the draft in his one and only year in college basketball. The fact that his father attended college nearby, and that he has family in the area, helped ease the burden of turning down two local programs like USC and UCLA.
What he brings: Bagley is the best prospect in high school basketball. The 6-foot-11 lefty is a high-level athlete, exceptionally fluid for his size, and has budding skill both inside and out. Around the rim he has quick bounce, good footwork and soft touch. He loves the right block where he can turn to the middle to get to his jump hook over his right shoulder but he's also plenty adept at facing up and creating space from the mid-post. His soft touch extends all the way out to the perimeter, though he's probably most consistent putting the ball on the floor and attacking less agile defenders off the bounce. He's also an active shot-blocker and ambitious rebounder who can take the ball off the defensive glass and start the break with his own dribble when the opportunity presents itself. Over the course of 20 games in the Nike EYBL, Bagley averaged 25.5 points, 14.7 rebounds, 3.0 blocks and 1.8 assists, according to www.D1circuit.com. His 92 offensive rebounds were also 31 more than the next closest player. Despite Bagley's dominance, there are still areas of his game that can improve. He needs to become more consistently efficient on offensive, buy into being as effective a defender as he is an offensive player, improve his right hand around the lane, and continue to develop his naturally soft touch in order to be a consistent free-throw shooter and 3-point threat. In short, Bagley is a generational talent who has all the tools an elite prospect could hope for, but he is still a ways away from realizing his full potential, and ultimately that may be the most exciting thing about him.
How he fits: This may be the best freshmen class in America, but what makes Duke's roster especially dangerous next season will be the presence of veteran leadership in senior guard Grayson Allen to help guide an otherwise young and extremely talented roster. Look for Bagley along with fellow incoming freshmen Wendell Carter and Marques Bolden (another former five-star recruit) to be the main trio that rotates between the two frontcourt positions while Allen, Trevon Duval and Gary Trent begin practice as the favorites to earn starting spots on the perimeter with fellow freshmen Alex O'Connell and Jordan Tucker poised to earn back-up minutes off the bench. Ultimately, the rotation will be short, but Bagley's addition will give them as potent a first six or seven as there is in the country.
Who he reminds us of: At the same stage coming out of the high school game, Bagley is a cross between Anthony Davis and Chris Bosh. The body type, dominant left hand and scoring punch at his position is all immediately reminiscent of Bosh, but Bagley may be a better rebounder and further along with his face-up game than Bosh was at a similar stage. Bagley's skill set for his size, agility, athleticism and potential versatility puts him in the same conversation with Davis, but he's not yet as defensive minded.
How the class is shaping up: Bagley becomes the seventh player, sixth ESPN 100 prospect, and fourth five-star prospect to commit to Duke in the class of 2017 as he joins Carter, Duval and Trent, among others. The commitment also gives Duke the top-ranked recruiting class in the country for the third time in the past four years. The Blue Devils also have one on board already for 2018 following Tre Jones' commitment over the weekend.