The three outfielders other than Los Angeles Angels star Mike Trout selected in the first round of ESPN average live drafts this time last year sure didn’t seem like overly risky picks. Washington Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper boasted only one superstar season to his credit, but it was just so great that it seemed incomprehensible he’d end up outside the top-20 outfielders for 2016. At least he outperformed Pittsburgh Pirates icon Andrew McCutchen and Miami Marlins slugger Giancarlo Stanton. They didn’t fare nearly as well, and each of these three gents was a top-10 fantasy selection. Whatever risk they possessed at the time seemed worth it.
Veteran fantasy owners tend to have different viewpoints about risk versus reward. To some, if you’re not finishing in first place then it might as well be last place, so constructing a roster built around precarious but high-upside options seems attractive. To others -- and I’m in this section -- I tend to make it a goal to minimize risk, so there are certain players I just want no part of. Boston Red Sox lefty David Price is a great example. He can be had so many rounds later than what would have occurred sans elbow concerns, but at this writing, he’s not out for the year. He might pitch in April. He might be great. Or he might be done. In the early rounds, there's no chance I invest.
Nevertheless, this isn’t a blog entry about this season’s riskiest first-round selections, even though every season the same type of stuff does seem to happen. Harper was clearly not healthy after April. McCutchen seemed to hit some physical wall until the final two months. Stanton got hurt again and now we view him differently, but a year ago he was universally beloved. So was Troy Tulowitzki a few seasons ago. And there are no truly risky picks after the middle rounds. Take a chance on Matt Harvey, Eric Thames, Manuel Margot, Koda Glover and Price if you want, because the investment is relatively minor.
Risky picks in top 20: I seem to be alone on an island on this one, but Los Angeles Dodgers lefty Clayton Kershaw, while so ridiculously talented that he pitched through his back ailment for a while and was still great, then missed a third of the season and still ended up the No. 2 pitcher, is a risk. He has to be. Not saying he misses a third of the season again, but would that really surprise anyone? What if it’s more than that? Back injuries can be debilitating. Harper, going No. 10 in ESPN ADP, is an obvious risk, too. Perhaps he can’t stay healthy enough to reprise his MVP season of 2015. And while I love Trea Turner and couldn’t recommend him enough last March, he certainly is a risk in the second round. He’s played in all of 100 big league games. It’s the Carlos Correa argument from last spring, and Correa couldn’t quite sustain his play as a rookie, though he’s not exactly Freddy Galvis, either. Turner will be fine.
Other risky hitters in the top 100: Stanton and McCutchen are going at a large discount in relation to last season, but it might not be enough. Perhaps Stanton really can play in 155 games this season. He’s topped 123 games in one of the past five years. That’s a trend, folks, not a fluke. McCutchen would seem to have the better chance to bounce back, but his consistency and modest stolen bases were attractive, and now both are history. But there are so many more risky hitters! Is Arizona’s A.J. Pollock the top-10 guy of two seasons ago or a major injury concern? You think he knows? Still, what a wonderful season that was. Hope we’re not still romanticizing it in 2020. Jose Bautista is back in Toronto, and he can still launch a majestic homer and draw his walks, but his reputation is getting him drafted ahead of Adam Jones and Justin Upton, younger fellows also coming off rough seasons. Detroit’s J.D. Martinez is supposed to miss just a few weeks of April with his foot injury, but we know this could linger for months -- or perhaps until next hockey season.
Other risky pitchers in top 100: Washington right-hander Stephen Strasburg is an annual name on this list but really, at least we know we’re getting something and it’s good, right? He’s never been bad. Strasburg’s ERA has risen in three consecutive seasons, but the WHIP and strikeouts are always awesome. Just note he’s topped 183 innings in just one season. Cleveland’s Carlos Carrasco is the American League version of Strasburg and suddenly a name to be wary of, as he’s dealing with elbow pain and getting shelled in spring games. It’s a concern, and he’s reached 150 innings in only one of his big league seasons. There’s a different risk with Boston right-hander Rick Porcello, I suppose. He’s about as durable as they come, but until his Cy Young season of 2016, the numbers were almost always a disappointment. I happen to believe what he achieved is real and, save for the victories, it’s repeatable, but he’s got a career ERA of 4.20, too. He’s not a top-50 pitcher with that ERA. Luckily, it will be a run lower again.
As for the relief pitchers showing up in the top 100 of ESPN ADP, I think it’s largely a mistake to invest in closers so early, but people do it anyways, so perhaps I should give up the fight. Hey, they’re your teams. It’s understandable to covet Zach Britton after what he achieved, or a 100-strikeout option like Kenley Jansen, but new Chicago Cubs option Wade Davis scares me. He hit the disabled list multiple times last season with elbow woes, and while the numbers look great and always do, the velocity drop and raised walk rate can’t be ignored, and neither can the brutal spring training numbers. In some cases, the way a pitcher pitches in March games can tell us something. I think at least one other Cubs reliever is earning double-digit saves this season, so I certainly can’t justify choosing Davis over any number of other closers, but also the likes of Dustin Pedroia, Evan Longoria and Khris Davis.
Later risks: There’s no magic round in which we flip the switch and say it’s OK to ignore risk and choose whomever you like, because all leagues are different. In an ESPN standard league, in which free agency will have many intriguing names, I’m probably more apt to take a chance in Round 11 or 12 on one of the rookies Andrew Benintendi, Dansby Swanson or Manuel Margot. In a shallow league, there’s less risk in taking minor leaguer Yoan Moncada in Round 15 because you know you can get a third baseman like Travis Shaw in the final rounds. I will say there’s a bit more risk with injury guys like Michael Brantley, Rich Hill, Danny Salazar and Steven Matz, and with others like Felix Hernandez, Craig Kimbrel and Carlos Gomez it would be performance, and one or two of these guys on any team isn’t a big deal. Some will say the reward is worth the risk for all, and build a team around dicey selections, impervious to downside. What do you say?