<
>

Perfect draft: Balance, patience, upside are key

Who wouldn't want to start their fantasy teams with the combination of Mike Trout and Clayton Kershaw? Matt Brown/Angels Baseball LP/Getty Image

If we’re being totally honest, the perfect fantasy baseball draft would feature Mike Trout, Jose Altuve, Mookie Betts, Clayton Kershaw and, well, perhaps you see what I’m getting at here. We’d all love to literally dominate the first round of our drafts or possess $700 in auction dollars to outbid everyone else, but these things can’t happen. There really is no perfect draft because we know performance will vary and injuries will happen because baseball players aren’t robots. Baseball players are human and, therefore not perfect. Still, that doesn’t mean we can’t strive for roster perfection before outside forces intervene.

A wise course of action is to always enter a draft or auction with a smart, reasonable plan that would likely create a contending team, execute that plan properly, and hope that degrees of excellence and fulfillment will result. Seek balance not only among the statistics but among the players themselves, with some old versus some young choices, some durable types versus some high-risk brittle ones and an effort to avoid investing in the entire Boston or Colorado offenses or the Cubs’ rotation. Diversify and enjoy these humans!

Nevertheless, ahead is what I’d call a near-perfect draft because it’s executing a reasonable, actionable plan, filling the 10 standard fantasy categories and doing so in a balanced way. Perhaps in September we’ll look back and indeed call it perfect! In March, perfection is in the opportunity.

Round 1 -LindorKris Bryant, 3B/OF, Chicago Cubs: My preference would be to have the first or last pick in every 10- or 12-team draft. Give me Trout and I can build around him or give me consecutive picks at the back end and I can do the same. Some people don’t like waiting so long between picks and choose a mid-round selection, but not me. Getting Trout would be a great start on perfection. So is Bryce Harper-Madison Bumgarner or Miguel Cabrera-Charlie Blackmon at the turn, depending on how deep the league is.

For this exercise, though, let’s go with the middle of the round and use ESPN average live drafts (10 teams, 25 rounds) as a guide on what’s possible. We'll choose Bryant, who isn’t quite in the top tier of three, but shouldn’t be around at picks eight or nine, either.

Round 2 -LindorCarlos Correa, SS, Houston Astros: He was a first-round pick a year ago and nothing bad happened in 2016, so he’s a steal in the middle of Round 2. By the way, I’m not the guy taking starting pitching in the first two rounds. Get power, power and more power and hopefully the power you select is capable of stealing bases as well. These are a pair of five-category options, and one of them boasts multi-positional eligibility. Also, there’s no such thing as position scarcity except for catcher -- and you only need one in these leagues -- so wait until the very end. Middle infield is fine and no less a problem than corner infield or outfield.

Round 3 -LindorRobinson Cano, 2B, Seattle Mariners: I'm ranking him better than his ADP and am surely willing to overlook his lack of stolen base prowess. I thought about Cubs right-hander Jake Arrieta here, but I intend to get several rotation anchors soon ...

Round 4 -Lindor Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers: ... but first, another bat! I find it silly how people simply don’t like certain players and choose lesser statistical ones in drafts. Braun has done and said some things over the years but he also has averaged 28 home runs, 20 steals, 84 runs and a .295 batting average over the past two seasons. That's legit. Draft the stats. You’re not having dinner with these guys.

Round 5 -LindorChris Archer, SP, Tampa Bay Rays: Here's a 200-strikeout starter with some bad luck in both the ERA and wins department. Please don’t assume the same thing happens again in 2017. He’s better than a 4.02 ERA and wins can’t be predicted. Quite honestly, they shouldn’t be a thing at all. Use quality starts in your leagues!

Round 6 -Lindor Wil Myers, 1B, San Diego Padres: Perhaps I’m missing something, but he has proved himself as a provider of power and speed and he’s motivated to do so again. Plus, choosing numerous stolen base options frees up a fantasy owner from having to select a one-category Billy Hamilton or Dee Gordon type. It’s a lot of that category, but not a lot else. Oh, and first base isn’t as deep as most realize. Never seen it look so, well, average.

Round 7 -LindorMasahiro Tanaka, SP, New York Yankees: Let’s get past the point of worrying about whether his prized right arm can hold it together. Every pitcher is at risk for major injury at any point and while we tend to focus on Tanaka or Chris Sale (That delivery! Will we still be discussing him when he’s 33 and sans major injury?) or other pitchers taking on huge workloads, the point is nobody is safe. Clayton Kershaw missed one-third of last season. David Price might be done. Tanaka might not be safe, per se, but is he really that much more of a risk than anyone else?

Round 8 -LindorAlex Bregman, 3B, Houston Astros: I’ve got Bregman going several rounds better than this so, in other words, what a steal! He’s not a big base stealer but the power is real. He can play corner infield on this team or, I suspect, Bryant will be playing in my outfield. That's not a big deal, as it’s easier to fill corner infield than it is to find a great fifth fantasy outfielder.

Round 9 -LindorJose Quintana, SP, Chicago White Sox: I'm not sure when this lefty will stop being so underrated, but he’s clearly a top-20 fantasy starter and in his case you’re paying for reliability and consistency. You might even get some added value after a trade to the Cubs. Hey, one never knows!

Round 10 -LindorJulio Teheran, SP, Atlanta Braves: He's a solid strikeout option and his club’s offense is much improved over last season, so expect double-digit victories. While I might not dip into the starting pitching pool early in drafts, to have four quality strikeout options after Round 10 is hardly a mistake or misinformed plan. The base offense at this point is also strong and there is speed to be had later.

Round 11 -LindorJason Kipnis, 2B, Cleveland Indians: Sure, he’s not 100 percent healthy and we might not see him until May, but this is yet another five-category producer coming at a discount solely because he’s missing games. You can stash him until he’s ready. Plus, you know what? A lot of players will miss games this season! I am a tad concerned the shoulder issues could linger but there’s a balance in drafts and it’s OK to take a risk or two. If healthy, Kipnis goes five rounds earlier, so this drop seems a bit extreme.

Round 12 -LindorLorenzo Cain, OF, Kansas City Royals: Cain is a balanced player statistically and another bargain based on 2016 drafts. What has really changed for Cain since last year, when so many loved and coveted him? He was hurt. OK, lots of players get hurt. Most do get healthy. Cain is a terrific player foolishly left out of the top-100 discussion and this team features plenty of offensive durability.

Round 13 -LindorCody Allen, RP, Cleveland Indians: You can’t get much more consistent than this right-hander, who for four seasons hasn’t wavered much in innings, strikeouts, walks, ERA and WHIP. Yes, he’s safe for saves. Draft lefty Andrew Miller if you like, but he’s not getting double-digit saves because Allen is the guy and he doesn’t get hurt. Save options are so overrated in ESPN ADP. One can easily secure saves later and even leaving a draft with only one closer is no big deal since at least a third of the jobs will change in-season. Allen deserves to be in a better tier.

Round 14 -LindorOdubel Herrera, OF, Philadelphia Phillies: Herrera doesn't have a ton of power, but he’s capable of approaching 20 home runs. His RBI total will surely rise now that he’s regularly hitting third in the lineup, where he thrived last season and kept on running. This seems like a player who will try to hit for more power so hopefully it doesn’t taint the batting average. It shouldn’t.

Round 15 -LindorEduardo Nunez, SS/3B, San Francisco Giants: He's not everyone’s favorite and I understand why, but he finished 17th among hitters on the Player Rater last year. How much statistical regression do you really expect? Five home runs? Ten steals? Do you think he’s going to be outright benched or released? Stop it. Nunez is still a top-100 player and he won’t be sitting. I think he might even add outfield eligibility at some point. Eligibility is important in-season and Nunez, perhaps the corner infielder on this team today, can move over to middle infield for me when Kipnis hits the DL (soon) and steal his 30-plus bases there. That’s valuable.

Round 16 -LindorJake Odorizzi, SP, Tampa Bay Rays: Odorizzi is far from being a fantasy ace, but he is a suitable No. 5 starter (and a career .500 pitcher) who has contributed across the board for several safe seasons. There's no reason he can't give you more of the same in 2017.

Round 17 -LindorFrancisco Rodriguez, RP, Detroit Tigers: Sure, go ahead and predict that this is the year it all falls apart while I take the 40-plus saves after Round 15, like every season. You’re not getting elite strikeout help here, and perhaps the ERA doesn’t slide below 3.00 again, but you’re also not investing a top-100 pick on a closer at the expense of excellent hitters.

Round 18 -LindorByron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins: There’s downside, of course, as this skinny kid swings and misses a lot and could really struggle with batting average, but think about the massive upside as well. It appears he’s hitting third in the lineup, which means plenty of baserunners to knock in. He’s fast enough to swipe 40 bases even with a low on-base percentage, and if you’re worried about a middle-of-the-lineup guy running, it’s not like he’s protected in the order by superstars. He’s running. He’s got pop. Take a chance because these are the picks that win leagues, not the safe top-50 selections!

Round 19 -LindorJameson Taillon, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates: Here we have a strikeout starter with lots of upside, just about to break out for a team with a solid defensive background in a pitchers' park. He's not exactly the pitching equivalent to Buxton, but again, there's a lot of room for growth.

Round 20 -LindorJim Johnson, RP, Atlanta Braves: This is going to be my third closer -- and Johnson is safer in his role than people realize. I like to go six starters and three closers on a standard nine-man pitching staff and then get an extra starter on the bench. Don’t bother handcuffing saves in ESPN standard leagues.

Round 21 -LindorEric Thames, OF, Milwaukee Brewers: While it’s foolhardy to expect the kind of numbers he amassed in Korea, Thames does possess significant power and the ability to draw walks. He’ll add first base eligibility soon and should pass by 25 home runs and 80 RBIs. I considered his teammate Keon Broxton as well, but this team is heavy on speed and needs more power. I’ve seen Thames both selected in the top 100 of drafts as well as missing the top 200. That doesn’t make much sense, but this late there are no bad picks.

Round 22 -LindorJerad Eickhoff, SP, Philadelphia Phillies: His ADP reflects his own unknown reputation and the fact he is playing for a team not expected to win or score much. Eickhoff was the No. 31 starting pitcher on the 2016 Player Rater and a surprise strikeout guy with legit underlying numbers. Um, why can’t he repeat?

Round 23 -Yoan Moncada, 3B, Chicago White Sox: Here's your next big baseball superstar. You just need to be a bit patient before he gets the call as service time rules may keep him stuck in the minors until around May 15. There's no reason he shouldn't be in Chicago much later than that and, fingers crossed, he may even arrive sooner.

Round 24 -LindorC.J. Cron, 1B, Los Angeles Angels: This could have been Tommy Joseph or, up to about a week ago, Greg Bird before everyone started moving him up their lists. Simply put, it’s nice to have a 25-homer option on the bench just in case, and Cron is guaranteed playing time.

Round 25 -LindorWelington Castillo, C, Baltimore Orioles: ESPN ADP shows 14 catchers being chosen in 10-team leagues, which might be correct on an overall basis, but it’s not likely to be the case in your league, due to shallow benches. Ten catchers are going to get drafted. Use your last-round pick on the best catcher available because Castillo, Yadier Molina, Brian McCann and Russell Martin are worthy fantasy starters -- and some (or all) will still be out there.