It’s safe to say San Francisco Giants catcher Buster Posey does not read or listen to my work and cares not even one little bit that every season he lands on my annual “Do Not Draft” list.
And why should he care? It’s simply one man’s opinion, and the key to this particular opinion is the value of what round or auction price Posey will cost in relation to his actual, statistical value. This isn’t about defense or clubhouse chemistry or any of that. It’s about cold, hard stats and how to properly value them. Of course I’d want Posey on my team, but rocking a draft or auction is about value, and paying the typical cost to get Posey just isn’t worth it.
Posey might very well finish the 2017 campaign atop the Player Rater among his brethren at catcher -- it’s happened a few times before -- but when comparing his offensive statistics to the overall pool of hitters they simply do not match up to the steep cost in relation to his non-catching peers. It’s that simple. This is, after all, a fantasy baseball column. Posey is currently being selected in ESPN average live drafts in the fifth round, ahead of Jose Abreu, Christian Yelich, Chris Archer and many more. It’s great he’s the best catcher -- if he is -- but the past four seasons he’s averaged 18 home runs, 84 RBIs, 72 runs and two stolen bases a season. Consistency and reliability matter but only to a point.
Anyway, welcome back to my list, Buster, and don’t take it personally! In ESPN standard formats in which only one catcher is needed, there’s simply no reasonable argument to be made for Posey in the first five rounds, and while we’re at it, let’s say the same for New York Yankees great Gary Sanchez in the first 10 rounds, too. Construct an offense without pushing a misinformed theme of position scarcity, because it doesn’t exist. Selecting Posey over Texas Rangers second baseman Rougned Odor, who topped Posey by 19 home runs and eight steals without hurting batting average, doesn’t make much sense. Yadier Molina or five other backstops in the final round will do just fine.
Before we get to the others, we’ll get to the business of announcing Los Angeles Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen's addition to this list as well. Closers don’t need to be going in the first five, six or seven rounds of a standard draft. There are plenty of saves. No, one might not get the awesome strikeouts, ERA or WHIP, but there were plenty of surprise closers last season providing plenty of saves. Jansen is regarded as fantasy’s first closer off the draft board, thus he’s on the list, but he’s representing the top tier. Craig Kimbrel has been on this list several times because the value of choosing him over an ace or five-category offensive star hasn’t been worth it. This season, Kimbrel is actually on my “Do Not Draft” list not because of value, but because there’s reason to believe he’s not even a top-10 option, for various command and workload reasons. But I digress.
Removing catchers and closers from the equation, and trying to remind you that it’s all about the value of cost versus risk, actual statistics and other factors, here are others not likely to end up on my teams in 2017.
Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Miami Marlins (ADP: No. 40): If this monster of a man wouldn’t send rocket shots out of ballparks at the speed of sound, I’m convinced it would be easier to convince the majority of the significant and obvious risk. Fact: Stanton has power. Tremendous power. Watching him hit is fun. Watching him take up space on your disabled list is not. Fact No. 2: Stanton has averaged 115 games over the past five seasons, topping 123 games in 2014, and that’s it. Yes, he has averaged 30 home runs in that span, but only 79 RBIs, 66 runs and a .268 batting average. This is not a top-10 outfielder. A year ago we finally, mercifully dinged the draft-day value of brittle Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Troy Tulowitzki to out of the top 50, and this year he’s going in Round 13. Tulowitzki has averaged 119 games played over four seasons, with 22 home runs, and that's at shortstop. Stanton should not be going in the top 50.
Billy Hamilton, OF, Cincinnati Reds (ADP: No. 65): This is a situation in which the ESPN Player Rater can mislead fantasy owners. Yes, Hamilton and fellow NL speedster Dee Gordon can really pile on the stolen bases and appear to dominate the Rater, but other than the season in which Gordon hit for an astounding batting average, these guys have basically been one-category options. I don’t know about you, but it’s tough to justify a valuable pick in the first 10 rounds on such an option, even if his mere presence will likely guarantee a standard fantasy team relevance in stolen bases. It’s also a key statistical hole in power, which we all need a ton of in the early rounds. There are 30-steal options later in drafts, and many can provide some power as well, at a minimal cost. Taking a closer or catcher or powerless steals guy early hampers your ability to build a balanced roster.
Kyle Schwarber, OF, Chicago Cubs (ADP: No. 71): Here come the angry Cubs fans to deride this selection, but again, facts are facts. What is the five-category statistical upside for Schwarber? He clearly has power and on-base skills, which could land him in the coveted leadoff spot, but what’s he really providing? Schwarber is projected to hit .249 with 27 home runs and 80 RBIs, with 87 runs and four steals. The runs scored projection is obviously predicated on regular duty atop the lineup, but that’s hardly guaranteed. For one, he’s likely to be see ample rest a year after shredding a knee. The Cubs are so deep it’s hard to see how Schwarber approaches 500 plate appearances. He hasn’t proved he can hit left-handed pitching, so there goes some at-bats. He’s not a good outfielder, so he’ll lose at-bats late in games, too. He’s likely to add catcher eligibility at some point -- April perhaps, but it could be June -- but that won’t help him play regularly or (and this is important) add great value in ESPN leagues. Catcher Evan Gattis hit .251 with 32 home runs and 72 RBIs last season and ended up the No. 118 hitter on the ESPN Player Rater. Schwarber shouldn’t be a top-100 selection, regardless of potential position eligibility.
Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City Royals (ADP: No. 84): We’ve seen breakouts in a player’s seventh season before, I suppose, but the actual numbers here don’t show a player whose value is commensurate with ADP. Hosmer wasn’t among the top 100 on the Rater last season when he reached career bests in power because he didn’t hit for average and no longer provides double-digit stolen base totals. He struck out more than ever, too, seemingly selling out for pop. It’s true that first base isn’t as deep as usual, but that doesn’t mean one should reach for an average option, either. Stop expecting Hosmer to have that monster season. This is who he is, and it’s relevant but not special, and being in a contract year isn’t likely to alter that. We see just as many players supposedly motivated by money struggle to improve as we do Adrian Beltre types exploding with massive numbers (and that was a long time ago for Beltre, incidentally). Hosmer should not be going 50 picks ahead of Adrian Gonzalez and Brandon Belt, among others.
Zack Greinke, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks (ADP: No. 94): Three-year averages are irrelevant in this case, because several important things changed with Greinke. One, he’s not in Los Angeles anymore in a pitcher’s park, no longer in the shadow of the game’s top starter with the Dodgers. Greinke’s contract and status in Arizona’s rotation adds pressure, and who knows, perhaps it even has something to do with the decrease in fastball velocity. Greinke’s ERA nearly tripling last season wasn’t all about the home/road splits, though they played a significant role. Guess what: He still has to pitch in Phoenix! And now he’s doing so with average velocity and an ordinary, at best, defense behind him. Don’t simply average out the past two or three seasons and project a low-3s ERA. Doesn’t work that way. This is not a top-20 starting pitcher.
Other hitters outside the top 100
I’m certainly looking forward to seeing what Boston Red Sox outfielder Andrew Benintendi and Atlanta Braves shortstop Dansby Swanson achieve and agree it will be great, but from a pure fantasy (numbers!) standpoint, in one-year formats, they’re likely to be overrated. Neither is expected to supply big power or steal many bases. Not saying that makes them Melky Cabrera, but be careful here.
It’s a similar issue with new Washington Nationals outfielder Adam Eaton, to some degree. Not a power or speed provider and his potentially lofty runs total will likely be threatened by a questionable managerial lineup decision.
Hoping for the best for Cleveland Indians outfielder Michael Brantley, but it’s tough to fix balky shoulders, and things don’t seem to be progressing so well. Even in the middle rounds, I’m skeptical.
Those who draft off last year’s full-season numbers will wonder why Reds outfielder Adam Duvall isn’t more popular. He smacked 33 home runs! Well, he did, but he also hit .212 in September and strikes out a ton. Rebuilding teams like to play future pieces, and Jesse Winker might be the long-term left fielder. Duvall isn’t.
Other pitchers outside the top 100
There are other closers I’m certainly avoiding after Jansen and Kimbrel, like new Chicago Cubs option Wade Davis (health) and Pittsburgh Pirates lefty Tony Watson (spring performance, opportunity), but let’s deal with Indians lefty Andrew Miller and New York Yankees right-hander Dellin Betances. They’re not in line for saves. Perhaps you’re cool with that, but I tried relying on these fellows last season, and it’s just not enough impact in, well, any statistical category, really, including ERA and WHIP. I’m back to generally taking six starters and three actual save options. And to be clear, I actually expect statistical regression for each as well. They can’t pitch this well every season.
Then there’s Seattle Mariners right-hander Felix Hernandez. Sure, Justin Verlander found his lost velocity and returned to top-10 status last year. Hernandez isn’t doing that, and his numbers can and likely will get worse.
Same with New York Mets right-hander Matt Harvey. Rooting for him, as we all should, of course, but you saw the disturbing numbers in Tristan Cockcroft’s awesome 101 facts article, didn’t you? Unless it’s with a late pick, Harvey isn’t worth it. He’s not returning to top-20 status, and with many guys in this blog entry, reputation seems to carry way too much weight.
I don’t think Boston Red Sox lefty Drew Pomeranz is as bad as his second-half numbers, but I don’t think he’s healthy, either, or a top-50 starter, and neither is Houston Astros lefty Dallas Keuchel anymore. Elbows get fixed and heal. Shoulders are a bigger problem.