Billy Hamilton, Dee Gordon and hopefully several fellows in the comparatively speed-starved American League are likely to steal many bases this season, but for those in deeper fantasy leagues it’s often all about the sleepers that surprise as late- or post-round draft picks. This isn’t about the next Jonathan Villar, necessarily, since he was supposed to be intriguing and expecting upwards of 50 stolen bases from seemingly nowhere is indeed asking for a lot, but his teammate Hernan Perez is a more realistic option. Perez, a forgotten bench option, finally saw opportunity to play and, well, he ran with it, so to speak. Same with Padres outfielder Travis Jankowski, a young player with the right skill set.
The ESPN Fantasy projections are posted for all to see and last I looked -- they do get updated -- there were nearly 40 players projected for 20 or more stolen bases. To me, those players aren’t really sleepers. Oh sure, a few of them might run considerably more than expected -- Byron Buxton jumps to mind! -- but let’s use the rest of the sport as the barometer for this blog entry.
So here are several categories of stolen base sleepers and none of them are being projected for as many as 20 steals by ESPN Fantasy.
Young players to watch
Roman Quinn, OF, Philadelphia Phillies: Ridiculously fast and boasting more pop than his slight frame would suggest, Quinn’s issue has always been staying healthy. That’s about it. If he’s great at Triple-A Lehigh Valley then don’t expect left fielder Howie Kendrick to hold him off for long, but even in June we’re always going to wonder if Quinn is capable of a 500-PA season.
Mallex Smith, OF, Tampa Bay Rays: The former Brave -- and for about 10 minutes this winter, a Mariner -- is also someone we could realistically pencil in for 40 stolen bases if full-time playing opportunity is there. After all, he averaged 69 steals from 2013-15 in the minors. Smith has a shot to make the Rays and as of now the corner outfielders are Colby Rasmus and Steven Sousa Jr. Yep.
Ketel Marte, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks: It makes little sense for this organization to use Nick Ahmed or Chris Owings at short when Marte, acquired in the Jean Segura trade, already has more than 700 big league plate appearances. Perhaps he’ll never really hit, but he’s only 23, so let’s give him a chance to find out. He stole 20 bases several times in the minors, but not much more than that. This isn’t a 50-steal guy.
Raul Mondesi, 2B, Kansas City Royals: With all these guys it’s not really about the skills set, but the playing time. Well, Mondesi is only 21 years old and doesn’t seem capable of a .300 on-base percentage yet, but that might not matter to the Royals. It hasn’t in the past. Mondesi stole nine bases with 149 big league plate appearances last season, and the Royals can’t be too excited about Whit Merrifield or Christian Colon at second base.
Jacob May, OF, Chicago White Sox: This is a bad team currently planning to go with Peter Bourjos in center field. Once upon a time, Bourjos showed up in this annual blog entry as a potential base stealer and truth be told, he is fast. He just can’t steal first base. Charlie Tilson is projected for many steals and he might get them, but not in April, as he nurses a stress reaction in his right foot. May is a similar player, albeit a bit older and sans the exciting upside. May is having a nice spring and the switch-hitter would surely be a better choice than Bourjos.
In addition, I thought about adding White Sox infielder Tyler Saladino in this space, for the mustachioed one can and does run and figures to handle second base duties for a while until Yoan Moncada gets the call and wins Rookie of the Year. But I just don’t think Moncada will be at Triple-A for more than a month.
There are other young players with speed just waiting for the chance, including Pittsburgh Pirates second baseman Alen Hanson, Minnesota Twins outfielder Zach Granite, Cleveland Indians outfielder Greg Allen and Baltimore Orioles outfielder Aneury Tavarez, a Rule 5 pick who hit .330 across two minor league levels last season with a modest 20 steals. The Orioles as a team somehow stole a mere 19 bases last season, which is really hard to believe. And for like the 14th straight season I’ll mention Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Dalton Pompey in this space. OK, perhaps it’s a mere three seasons. But still, the guy can play but it hasn’t translated to the majors. He’s only 24. Don’t give up on Pompey and Buxton and others who are so young and promising.
Veteran players to watch
Ben Revere, OF, Los Angeles Angels: Yep, last season was a major disappointment, as Revere had hit .296 over the previous five seasons and averaged 35 steals per year. And then with the Nationals, he didn’t. Now he’s a healthy Angel penciled in to start in left field and I’d argue we shouldn’t forget what he was entering 2016. It’s one bad season and wouldn’t be at all a surprise if he steals 30 bases since he’ll see more playing time in the Cameron Maybin platoon.
Cesar Hernandez, 2B, Phillies: One of the worst percentage base stealers of last year, and seemingly oblivious half the time as an instinctive base runner, the speedy Hernandez has made it clear he wishes to improve his rate, and word has it he’s worked hard on reading pitchers and developing jumps and it’s showed this spring. Hey, he gets on base and he attempted 30 steals last year. It’s not a stretch to see that number and his success rate rise.
Jorge Polanco, SS, Twins: Only 23 but technically a veteran, Polanco isn’t a big base stealer, but the switch-hitter looks to hit second after Buxton and there are on-base skills present. There could be double-digits ahead in homers and steals and a Dansby Swanson-like stat line, but Polanco isn’t going to be selected in most leagues. That’s value.
Delino DeShields, OF, Texas Rangers: Also not exactly old, but running is his game and he boasted a double-digit walk rate as a rookie in 2015. Then in 2016 he was bad. World Baseball Classic breakout Jurickson Profar certainly isn’t a lock for stardom in left field and Carlos Gomez isn’t so safe in center. DeShields is among the stolen base and walk leaders in the Cactus League for a reason.
Jason Heyward, OF, Chicago Cubs: The pessimist will point out how terrible he was in 2016 and how little he made it on base, but he’s stolen 20-plus bases in three of five seasons and he’s certainly going to play. Putting aside the new batting stance or whatever, even a modest bounce-back campaign to prior levels -- he’s shown skills -- could result in 20 steals again.
As for other veterans to watch, I’m planning to see Manny Machado and the Orioles next Monday in Sarasota, Florida, for ESPN Fantasy’s Mock Draft Monday. (That’s right, it’s Mock Draft Monday! Draft all day!) Think Manny will tell me if he’s going to steal 20 bases again? Probably not. But let’s hope the number is considerably higher than zero. His owners would be pleased with 10. That’s incredible that Machado stole more bases in 2015 than the Orioles as a team the following season. Joey Rickard led the team with four steals.
Also, don’t be surprised if Wil Myers and Jacoby Ellsbury steal 10 more bases than their projections. They’re certainly capable and Myers is definitely motivated after falling just short of a 30/30 campaign.
Finally, we close with Billy Burns. He’s a Royal. He might not make the team but if he does, on that team that loves to run, anything’s possible. Jarrod Dyson averaged 31 steals over 253 at-bats the past five seasons in Kansas City, and that could be the Burns role this summer.