Value is almost everything in a fantasy draft or auction, and it’s often tough to find when focusing on the consensus top rookies. There seems little doubt that Boston Red Sox outfielder Andrew Benintendi and Atlanta Braves shortstop Dansby Swanson are going to be terrific players. Neither real-life, first-round selection appeared the least bit overmatched in their 2016 debuts and the hype machine will be in full force this preseason as they get projected for awards and greatness. The annual dilemma for fantasy owners will be separating actual reasonable statistical output with, well, these lofty dreams.
Lineup position and stolen bases are two question marks we should start with because, as colleague Keith Law noted in his blog entry ranking the impact prospects for this season, Benintendi and Swanson are among the few blessed with apparent, guaranteed playing time. Sometimes playing time can cloud value, though. Both players were handled quite carefully as bottom-of-the-lineup options last season, the outfielder hitting ninth most of the time, the shortstop eighth. We think they’ll settle in as No. 2 hitters immediately, but only their managers know for sure. The Red Sox and Braves do have other options.
Of course, there’s more. One never really knows for sure how a young player will adjust once pitchers become more accustomed to dealing with them. Yes, both will be treated as "a rookie" but they also both have over 100 plate appearances. The experiences had to be valuable, even though Benintendi didn’t fare well versus left-handed pitching and Swanson didn’t appear to boast much power and was fortunate on batted balls in play. Oh, they’ll hit, we all proclaim with confidence, but power and speed upside remain in question, as well as the potential to be buried in the lineup again. By the way, as a reminder, you're reading a fantasy baseball column.
I admit my initial rankings on Benintendi and Swanson in a re-draft format showed too much optimism in comparison to proven, reliable talent. They have been adjusted accordingly. In dynasty/keeper leagues, go get them. The risk is lessened for sure. The ESPN Fantasy projections show double-digit home runs and stolen bases for each, but barely, so right now they’re not exactly Wil Myers -- or even Ian Desmond. The batting average projections aren’t special and lineup placement will dictate their runs scored.
We want to believe the leading contenders for top rookie honors will be fantasy monsters from the start. Of course, anyone who has assessed fantasy value and strategy for a long time knows it can be a trap, and that’s why San Diego Padres outfielder Manuel Margot is more likely to end up on my teams in re-draft formats than either Benintendi or Swanson. Margot can be procured considerably later, or cheaper, and he'll greatly impact at least one statistic. It comes down to value and the fact that if any of these three players seems guaranteed of not only a prime lineup spot, but also of providing at least one above-average fantasy statistic, it’s Margot. His track record shows on-base skills and major base-stealing potential.
Anyway, here is my initial fantasy top-10 for rookie-eligible players and yes, some of you will be surprised. However, you know what? The numbers are what really tell the story.
1. Manuel Margot, OF, San Diego Padres: The ESPN Fantasy projection shows scant power but 34 stolen bases, and I think we’re a little light on the runs scored. This is San Diego’s speedy leadoff hitter, and he's going to be great. It’s not a great offense, but the opportunity is there. In a world where 38 hitters amassed at least 30 home runs but a mere 14 notched that many stolen bases, well, that’s simple supply and demand. On the ESPN Player Rater, Margot’s value will be more obvious. After all, Eduardo Nunez ended up better on the Rater than did Robinson Cano, Ryan Braun and Freddie Freeman last season. Rajai Davis, of all people, topped Kyle Seager, Evan Longoria and Carlos Correa. It seems ridiculous, but in a way that’s why I’m here -- to point out the reality of occasional folly and cut to the chase. The abundance of steals really matter, plus I think Margot can contribute double-figure home runs soon.
2. Andrew Benintendi, OF, Boston Red Sox: He's projected to hit .295 with 12 home runs and 13 steals -- and that’s reasonable -- but it’s nearly the exact same line new Braves second baseman Brandon Phillips provided in 2016, when he finished as the No. 71 hitter on the Rater, 122nd overall. Think about that for a minute. Yes, if we’re playing the “upside” game, I’ll take Benintendi over Margot, and that factors into my rankings. Benintendi could be more statistically special. Just note that not one of these guys are projected for special numbers in 2017.
3. Hunter Renfroe, OF, San Diego Padres: Again, nobody’s saying this guy is going to be better in real life than Benintendi or Swanson, but Renfroe’s power is legit and it wouldn’t be shocking if he soon joins the 30-homer club. Sure, it’s a bit crowded there, but that’s valuable as long as Renfroe doesn’t drain your batting average. This feels, statistically, like Baltimore Orioles second baseman Jonathan Schoop, who provided 25 homers and 82 RBI sans plate discipline and, even without middle-infield eligibility, that surely matters.
4. Mitch Haniger, OF, Seattle Mariners: This really isn’t so crazy, as his situation isn’t so different than Renfroe. There appears to be guaranteed work in right field and the guy has power. Plus, he drew walks in the minors. Consider him late in drafts as well. A guy hitting .250 with 25 home runs and five steals is more valuable than a guy with 10 of each.
5. Dansby Swanson, SS, Atlanta Braves: He’s going to be an annual All-Star, I believe, but perhaps maps out better in real life than fantasy. He’s projected to hit .255, which is a problem, and he’s not expected to provide great power or stolen base output initially. His new colleague Phillips could also handle the attractive lineup spot. Ultimately, Swanson might be Ian Kinsler (in time) statistically, or even Derek Jeter. I believe that is possible. I just don’t believe it’s close to likely in 2017. Our tepid projections for Swanson wouldn’t make him worth drafting in most formats, though I think he hits more like .275 and could score 90 runs if he’s durable and hits second all year. By the way, shortstop isn’t all that weak for fantasy, so don’t draft the position as if it is.
6. Yoan Moncada, 3B, Chicago White Sox: This is probably the point I’d take the chance on upside, even knowing he likely starts the year in Triple-A. Some point out Moncada’s worrisome strikeout rate, but there’s power and speed and middle-infield eligibility lurking. Brett Lawrie isn’t going to stop Moncada from being a star, and I think it happens around midseason.
7. Tom Murphy, C, Colorado Rockies: Even in one-catcher formats, there’s potential relevance for 10- and 12-team leagues because the guy boasts power and his home field is the friendliest in the majors. There’s also the chance Murphy doesn’t get 300 at-bats, though, so be careful.
8. Aaron Judge, OF, New York Yankees: Most simply see a strikeout machine, but there’s so much power here. The concern is he’s still not ready for the majors and tanks your batting average, but even if he’s Chris Carter, that’s worth taking a chance on.
9. Josh Bell, 1B, Pittsburgh Pirates: This is another case where playing time means something, but not enough. I just don’t see a power hitter here, at least not yet. It’s not that fantasy first basemen must provide great power, but nobody’s drafting Joe Mauer, either.
10. Jose De Leon, SP, Tampa Bay Rays: The reason he gets ranked while New York Mets right-hander Robert Gsellman does not is simple. It’s about upside, and in a 10-team league, for your sixth starter, that’s key. DeLeon projects as a high-strikeout option. He’s in a great place to succeed, too. We know what Gsellman is. His wasn’t a heralded, young, flame-throwing arm -- certainly not like his colleagues -- though injuries are removing his colleagues. If Zack Wheeler could start 25 times, he would. He won’t. Gsellman probably will, but we’re looking at an ERA in the mid-3s with WHIP concerns. DeLeon should be better, though to be clear, neither is worth it in 10-team league. I’d also go with Oakland Athletics right-hander Jharel Cotton over Gsellman, and the Cardinals’ Alex Reyes would have ranked in the top five of this list for me, had surgeons not beckoned.
One other name to watch closely is Washington Nationals right-hander Koda Glover, perhaps the future closer for a playoff team. He's going to miss bats and it's tough to find a rookie-eligible pitcher in any real conversation for saves at this point. Shawn Kelley is likely first in line unless a trade is made, and with a manager known for leaning toward veterans and experience, that seems likely. If not, keep an eye on Glover.