The truth about a do not draft list, at least to me, is that a smart fantasy owner would draft pretty much anyone if the cost were right. The problem is the cost often isn’t perceived to be right. When we say cost, it could mean a certain round in a draft or auction dollars, but ultimately it comes down to value. The players on this annual list for me can still be productive and awesome and important cogs in the fantasy machine, but probably will not end up on my teams because of how I value them in relation to how others do. Thus, I do not draft them.

That written, some of the same names keep showing up on my list each season for various reasons. Either they continue to underperform in relation to expectations, without it becoming obvious in public perception, or the position scarcity thing takes over the conversation and people panic and want the best options at several spots, even when history tells us it’s far from necessary. Hey, at least awesome lefty Clayton Kershaw is no longer on my list. I always realized his greatness, but wouldn’t take him in the first round. Now the value of aces has risen and I would.

Regardless, here are players who do make my personal do not draft list, and let’s make it clear how it’s not really “personal” at all. I like these players, in theory. I might not like their value when compared to others, and I’ll aim to explain this. Look, we’re not breaking bread with these guys. We’re constructing fantasy teams. Throw out personal feelings about good guys and bad guys and get to the statistics, because after value that’s what it comes down to. And for these guys, I just don’t see it. Let’s use the ESPN average live draft results to guide us.

Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants

ESPN ADP: 28.5

Really, this fellow continues to amaze in his production and durability, and I don’t have concerns except when it comes down to comparing how others view him for fantasy-relevant statistics. That’s really all it is. Posey has an ADP of 28.5 in ESPN live drafts. He’s projected for 19 home runs and 88 RBIs. Pretty good, right? The hitters going directly after him in ADP are Chicago White Sox third baseman Todd Frazier, Detroit Tigers outfielder J.D. Martinez, Cincinnati Reds first baseman Joey Votto and Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Starling Marte. They’re each projected for better numbers than Posey. I’ll just get my catcher later -- much later. You don’t get the advantage you think when selecting Posey that early, and it's not even close. I used to compare this to New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski in football, and it still mostly works. Get the best players early, not the ones at perceived scarce positions.

Kenley Jansen, RP, Los Angeles Dodgers

ESPN ADP: 54.8

Let him represent the top tier of closers, if you will, going foolishly in the sixth round, per ADP. One can certainly win a league choosing a relief pitcher as their sixth or seventh player, but it makes it more difficult. Personally, I don’t even have Jansen as the top closer off the board. He’s terrific, but Kansas City Royals right-hander Wade Davis is clearly better. Davis in the past two years: a 0.97 ERA in 139 1/3 innings, with 187 strikeouts. Jansen’s ERA is 2.60 in that span, with a slightly better K rate. They’re both getting saves now. In the end, it doesn’t matter; I won’t get Davis, either. Or Craig Kimbrel. Or any closer in the first 10 rounds. It’s just not a good use of resources. Saves are always out there in free agency because generally half of all teams are forced to use more than one full-time closer. Use your sixth-round pick on Adam Jones or Stephen Strasburg. I’ll cease discussion of closers from here on out because after Round 12 or so, it’s just about the saves -- and they’re not difficult to find.

Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Colorado Rockies

ESPN ADP: 53.3

A year ago we were concerned mainly about durability and a rebuilding organization potentially trying to trade him. Today nothing has really changed except his banner 2015, which isn’t predictive at all. Remove Coors Field as his home park and things really change. CarGo was hitting .259 with 13 home runs at the All-Star break. Then he exploded, without warning. He bashed 40 home runs, 27 in the second half, 35 off right-handers and 24 at home. I just don’t see any of that as repeatable, and by the way, despite the fact that he played in 153 games last season, that type of durability seems unrepeatable as well.

Kyle Schwarber, C/OF, Chicago Cubs

ESPN ADP: 59.2

There’s no doubt the kid can hit for power and it sure looks as though he’ll get enough time at catcher keep qualifying there for next year but ... this is a team with major depth and I think Schwarber gets drafted too generously because of the catcher thing. I don’t think it’s a given he gets to 500 plate appearances, as he’s also a defensive liability and doesn’t hit left-handed pitching well. And by the way, if he hits “only” .250 or so with 20 home runs, does it make him special? Aren’t other guys doing this? I’m waiting at catcher.

Jason Heyward, OF, Chicago Cubs

ESPN ADP: 67.5

By the way, I do think the Cubs will win the National League Central. But Heyward isn’t what people think he is for fantasy purposes, where the amazing defense isn’t relevant. He last topped 14 home runs four seasons ago. His career batting average is .268. I don’t assume he’ll steal 20 bases every year, and he likely won’t score a ton of runs hitting fifth or sixth in this order, as the Dexter Fowler signing pushed him down. As a pure offensive provider, he was barely a top-20 outfielder on last year’s Player Rater and seems like a reach in the seventh round unless you think major blossoming is ahead. OK, so that’s two-thirds of the Chicago outfield on my list. I think Fowler is a tremendous bargain after Round 20, which is his ADP. In relation to Heyward, get bigger production from someone else and wait to grab Fowler.

Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta Braves

ESPN ADP: 73.6

Even if he had two healthy wrists, which he pretty clearly does not, Freeman is not the power threat he’s made out to be. He has never hit as many as 24 home runs in a season. He has knocked in 100 runs once, and he’s sure not surrounded by much in this Braves lineup. And oh yeah, his wrist is still messed up from last year. I’m not saying your first baseman has to hit for more power, but if I can wait another 70 picks for Lucas Duda or Mark Teixeira, or even longer for Carlos Santana, I’m doing it. By the way, Giants first baseman Brandon Belt is in the same boat. You’re not getting the power you think from a top-100 pick. Perception affects ADP so much.

Corey Dickerson, OF, Tampa Bay Rays

ESPN ADP: 113.8

He wouldn’t be on this list if the Rockies had kept him. I liked him in Coors Field. However, his 12th round ADP just doesn’t add up for what is expected. Dickerson’s home/road splits are significant, and there’s a strong likelihood he gets platooned in Tampa. He’s a 20-homer, 80-RBI guy, which is fine for the 20th round, but that’s not where he’s being selected.

Billy Hamilton, OF, Cincinnati Reds

ESPN ADP: 119.6

He has come to the plate more than 1,000 times in the major leagues and his career on-base percentage is a brutal .287. Oh sure, he can run like the wind and it wouldn’t shock me if another 50-steal season is pending, but it also wouldn’t be a surprise if the Reds just stop using him. Jose Peraza can get on base more. Just about anyone can. Hamilton hits way too many fly balls and oh, his shoulder is injured. He’s just not that good and we have enough evidence to prove it. The category he provides is certainly influential, especially when stolen bases haven’t been so rare since the Jimmy Carter presidency, but Hamilton does nothing else. In this case, the Player Rater lies. Take Ben Revere and Billy Burns and plenty of other speedsters over him.

Jordan Zimmermann, SP, Detroit Tigers

ESPN ADP: 126.4

The change in leagues is going to affect him quite a bit, as it would most everyone, but then throw in the fact he’s coming off a year in which he allowed more home runs than ever and his strikeout rate dropped. I’d take Zimmermann several rounds later, but I’ve got at least 10 pitchers ranked ahead of him who are going later in ADP.

Josh Harrison, 2B/3B/OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

ESPN ADP: 159.3

The first thing one notices is that he’s eligible at three spots; while that is helpful, it’s overrated. It doesn’t make up for the fact the numbers he provides are rather ordinary. We figured Harrison wouldn’t match his surprising 2014 in 2015, and he didn’t. But more regression is actually possible. He doesn’t draw walks, doesn’t possess much power and doesn’t steal bases at a good enough rate to keep getting the green light. As a middle infielder in the later rounds, sure, I’ll listen, but he’s going in the 16th round and that’s too early. I’ll take his teammate Jung Ho Kang -- and that’s acknowledging that Kang is starting April on the DL.

Yordano Ventura, SP, Kansas City Royals

ESPN ADP: 179.2

I suppose it’s possible he makes great strides in his age-24 year, his third big league season, but a career WHIP of 1.30 seems like a safe baseline. He also seems to leave plenty of starts early for whatever reason: injury, performance or his lack of maturity. Ventura appears to be an example of someone getting drafted generously because everyone gets to see him in October. I’m fine with reaching on Madison Bumgarner, whose numbers warrant the attention. Ventura’s numbers do not.

Gio Gonzalez, SP, Washington Nationals

ESPN ADP: 181.9

Still living off his 21-win season of 2012, he hasn’t won 12 games in a season since then because he doesn’t go deep enough into his starts. And oh, that 1.42 WHIP isn’t cool and might not be a fluke. Look elsewhere in the top 200.

Melky Cabrera, OF, Chicago White Sox

ESPN ADP: 196.3

We’re getting late enough in the back of the top 200 that there can’t be outright bad picks, but here’s a guy who doesn’t hit for power, doesn’t steal bases and has hit in the .270s two of the past three seasons. He’s not a top-60 outfielder for me. Plenty of others with upside left.