Few starting pitchers generate more conflicting feelings about whether they’re a pending sleeper or bust than Washington Nationals right-hander Stephen Strasburg. A former No. 1 overall pick, Strasburg was supposed to have won multiple Cy Young awards by now and be a sure fantasy building block, not end up ranked behind someone like Cleveland Indians right-hander Carlos Carrasco. But that’s the case and while I see both sides, that’s kind of the fun of it all, speculating whether “this is the year” for someone so talented and accomplished (his career ERA is 3.09, after all), yet somehow seen as disappointing.
Strasburg gets the sleeper nod for me, though it’s tough for any recognized top-20 hurler to truly engender the designation. Perhaps that’s for another blog entry, the pitchers I could see ending up in the top 10 not ranked that way! For these purposes, and in post-conjunction with Tuesday’s long blog entry -- sorry, editors! -- on sleepers and busts for those that make their living hitting baseballs, we turn to those who throw the baseballs. As with batters, I’ll include big-name options and perhaps several hurlers you’ll have to Google to see which teams employ them. Or not. And we’ll get to relief pitchers in separate and frequent blogs.
Big-name sleeper starting pitchers (top 50):
Jose Fernandez, Miami Marlins: Strasburg is No. 15 among pitchers and Fernandez is next and it’s tough for me to justify any other top-20 option in this space. With Fernandez, the concerns are clear; first year back from Tommy John surgery and the organization probably won’t let him make more than 26 or so starts. Thus, fantasy owners back off. Well, what if Fernandez, like Matt Harvey in 2015 or Clayton Kershaw and Chris Sale the year prior, posts a ridiculously low ERA and WHIP and many whiffs? I could see it. So, Fernandez and Strasburg seem to me to be bargains after round 6. Carrasco is ranked better, so it’s tough to view him as a sleeper, though everything tells us his major breakout is pending.
Jeff Samardzija, San Francisco Giants: Even I’m getting tired of writing/talking about this guy. So we’ll move on. He’s back in the NL, great park, strikeout potential, blah, blah, onward.
Drew Smyly, Tampa Bay Rays: He’s dealt with major shoulder woes, but he’s also pitched in four big league seasons and registered a 3.24 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and nearly a strikeout per inning. Sure, he’s no David Price but if he could make 30 starts … it’s not so crazy he matches Price if his left shoulder is right.
Masahiro Tanaka, New York Yankees: With him it’s the elbow, but similarly we’ve got 290 innings of big league reference and a 3.16 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and enough strikeouts. Would love to see the numbers over 30 starts.
Raisel Iglesias, Cincinnati Reds: Before the All-Star break, nothing special. After the break he sure was! In August, he made six starts and permitted 10 earned runs with a 0.75 WHIP. Durability is a concern, but the upside is immense, and don’t let the current state of the franchise concern you. He can win at least 12 games.
Wei-Yin Chen, Marlins: Here we’ve got a pretty safe, durable lefty from the AL East heading to a friendly pitcher park in the NL East with a 3.44 ERA and 1.22 WHIP the past two seasons. In his new division, it could easily drop to 3.10 and 1.15. You’d draft that, right?
Late- or non-round sleepers:
Jake Odorizzi, Rays: OK, so he’s not trending quite like Corey Kluber in the strikeout department anymore, as was conceivable a year ago, but he’s not Carlos Silva, either. Odorizzi misses bats with his adjusted splitter and I can see a 200-K campaign. He was on his way last season with a 2.30 ERA and 1.00 WHIP through 13 starts before the oblique injury. As with everyone else, health is key.
Phil Hughes, Minnesota Twins: If you believe his 2015 season reflects who he is, then pass. But in 2014 he won 16 games with a 1.13 WHIP and a record-setting walk-to-strikeout rate. That’s among the possibilities again.
Joe Ross, Nationals: Walk rate doesn’t appear to run in the family, as older brother Tyson Ross is also a strikeout option, but not so much for helping us in WHIP. Joe Ross just needs to make Washington’s rotation to blossom, though he’s already ranked quite generously.
Kevin Gausman, Baltimore Orioles: If the organization would just leave him alone and let him start every five days 30 times, I think we’d get a low-3s ERA and 175 strikeouts. Dare to dream.
Carlos Rodon, Chicago White Sox: Now entering Year 2, the former No. 3 overall draft pick offers immense strikeout potential, but he must tame the walks. Didn’t we once say that about Randy Johnson? Rodon is only 6-foot-3 but yeah, I could see 200 strikeouts even if the WHIP is a bit high.
Others: Anthony DeSclafani, Reds; Tanner Roark, Nationals; Clay Buchholz, Red Sox; Henderson Alvarez, Athletics; Marco Gonzales, Cardinals; Jonathon Niese, Pirates; Kendall Graveman, Athletics; Tyler Glasnow, Pirates; Colin Rea, Padres.
Busts:
Zack Greinke, Arizona Diamondbacks: He’s already out of the top 10 for most analysts, but there’s risk he’s not even a top-20 guy, despite finishing as the No. 2 hurler on the Player Rater. After all, he’s not in Los Angeles anymore, where he’s gone 29-5 with a 2.00 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 47 career starts, albeit some as a road pitcher. His numbers in L.A. prior to last season were strong, but not quite elite. He’s not going to sail way past 200 strikeouts, if he gets there at all. And now he’s in a hitter’s park and with a team that spent loads of dough, but doesn’t appear appreciably better. While he's on the "bust" list, I think the Greinke fear is a bit too harsh, personally, even while acknowledging his pristine 1.66 ERA could double.
Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners: Again, there’s major draft-day discount already built in for a guy who was actually the No. 2 pitcher in last year’s preseason ADP, but the floor is the problem. King Felix had some truly miserable outings last season that some will say ruined his numbers, but they could also be predictive that he wasn’t quite right, whether it was mechanics or hiding an injury. Every year this guy delivers 200 innings. So did Justin Verlander before things went truly awry. Arms aren’t made for this sport forever. I rank Hernandez top 20, but I think I’d rather move on a year too early than too late.
Johnny Cueto, Giants: Yeah, Samardzija wasn’t good for the White Sox, but Cueto’s second half in Kansas City, especially with K rate, was far more worrisome to me. He’s probably fine in his big ballpark, but 2014 also stands out for a possible aberrant strikeout rate we’ve never seen from him prior.
Jordan Zimmermann, Detroit Tigers: From the NL East to the AL Central is one concern, and dropping velocity with rising home run rate are others. We don’t need innings eaters anymore with so much pitching depth around.
Yordano Ventura, Kansas City Royals: Is it me or did it feel like every time he pitched last season he left his start prematurely for one reason or another, either due to injury or his own immaturity or something. Oh, and his WHIP his first two seasons has been 1.30 each time. Not exactly awesome. Yes, I see the obvious upside, but not everyone gets there. This guy is risky unless he’s your sixth starter.
Mike Fiers, Houston Astros: More untapped potential. It’s like watching Dave Bush with a lot more strikeouts (long-time followers will understand). And Fiers might not even make the Houston rotation initially. Take the chance in the final round, but only then.
Steven Matz, New York Mets: Amazing upside that I look forward to seeing, but staying healthy has always been a problem. Draft him only if your top starters are known for durability.
Alex Wood, Dodgers: The lefty with the odd delivery probably starts the season in the minors. On 25 other teams he’d be the fourth starter. I do think Wood will be needed for 20 big league starts, but I don’t see much upside.
Yovani Gallardo, Orioles: As written earlier this week, if he’s not helping in ERA, WHIP or strikeouts, what else is there?
Dylan Bundy, Orioles: It’s irrelevant how high of a real-life draft pick this right-hander was. He’s making the Orioles solely because they can’t demote him due to his contract, and he’s likely going to be a long man in the pen, not some dominant, strikeout starter.