PHOENIX -- The weekend update concerning the very valuable left arm of Boston Red Sox left-hander David Price really could have been much worse, I suppose. He could be done. However, we’re left with little clarity, as the swelling and fluid buildup in his throwing elbow remains a concern, and there’s no official timetable on when he’ll pitch again. But at least ligament replacement surgery hasn’t been deemed necessary. Yet. The point is that Price, who is expected to be re-evaluated as soon as later this week, isn’t pitching. And someone viewed as a top-10 starting pitcher prior to this news really can’t be drafted close to as such until we know more.
Price’s situation remains the biggest story from the weekend and was certainly a hot topic of discussion by my industry colleagues as we convened in Arizona for the annual LABR (League of Alternative Baseball Reality) auctions, even as the Red Sox train many states away in Florida. I participated in Sunday’s NL-only version and will tell the tale of my experience in a separate blog entry, while ESPN’s Tristan H. Cockcroft handled the AL auction Saturday night. In other words, he was the one who had to deal with the new version of what Price would be worth, and he predicted his original auction price of $26 would be chopped nearly in half.
For an ace who has averaged a cool 32 starts -- with other top numbers -- since becoming a full-time starter in 2010, it’s a bit shocking to deal with this Price news in the first place. Man, even he’s hurt? I recall saying this about Clayton Kershaw last summer, too. Yes, Price is hurt. He might not pitch at all this season or he might pitch in a few days and still make more than 30 starts. Last season he made 35 of them. Cockcroft was prescient in what Price’s new price would end up at; sure enough, he went for $14. It’s either a brilliant bargain or a colossal waste of an investment. And the worst part is we likely won’t know for a while, so those who have to decide whether to keep him or not, or in drafts in the next fortnight, won’t know.
Regardless, as a conservative drafter and bidder, there’s no way I want to deal with this, even at half the price or in Round 10 or 11. Perhaps Price can overcome the elbow woes to have one of his normal seasons, and by May we’ll look back on this early-March story with laughter. Someone in your league might really enjoy his performance at a bargain price. But I’d argue Price’s value can’t be the same this season. We already know his elbow isn’t quite right, even if he does pitch. Even if he’s pronounced strong and fit and bionic in a week, we can’t view him remotely the same. As odd as this sounds, we know very little as of now -- but we actually know too much.
Meanwhile, while my early prediction is that Price at least misses the start of the season, this is good news for those potentially investing, for deep leagues, in knuckleballer Steven Wright and lefties Eduardo Rodriguez and Drew Pomeranz, each of whom I think I like more than consensus. I think Wright’s emergence last season was legit, and the shoulder he injured in August while pinch running will be fine. Not like he’s throwing 95 mph to start with. Rodriguez was terrific in the second half last season, with healthy knees, better control than ever and more than a strikeout per inning. And Pomeranz -- while not as good as his 2016 numbers with the Padres, but not as bad as after the Red Sox acquired him -- is a strikeout guy and warrants top-60 attention in standard leagues should he get opportunities. Price’s pain should give each of these three guys a chance.
Here are some other thoughts on the news of the weekend:
I arrived at Friday’s Angels-Brewers game in Tempe with Cockcroft just in time to see potential Angels closer Huston Street grimace and reach for his shoulder after throwing a pitch, and a lat strain will shut him down presumably into April. I wasn’t recommending Street anyway, but I do think manager Mike Scioscia -- loyal to a fault to proven veterans -- was going to give him the ninth inning. He still might. Most view younger, harder-throwing Cam Bedrosian as the saves guy, and it’s nice he’s apparently overcome his groin injury. I’d still spend a dollar in AL-only auctions on Andrew Bailey. Ultimately, I bet Street and Bailey do get some saves, but Bedrosian should get them all.
Washington Nationals right-hander Stephen Strasburg, with one 200-inning campaign in his career, has changed his strategy in an effort to remain healthy. He’s pitching exclusively from the stretch, ignoring the windup. Just as there’s no concrete evidence topping 200 innings in a season should be taboo, or 100 pitches in a game should be avoided at all costs, throwing from the stretch might not keep Strasburg on the mound. Perhaps if he thinks it will, that’s important. Bottom line is I’ve got him ranked as a borderline top-20 starting pitcher, and so far I’m not adjusting it. It’s never been performance with him, but durability, and short March outings prove nothing.
Cleveland Indians manager Terry Francona announced that Carlos Santana will be the primary first baseman and Edwin Encarnacion the designated hitter, and that shouldn’t surprise anyone. However, if that means Encarnacion doesn’t get 20 games in the field to qualify at the position for 2018, that’s a minor factor in dynasty/keeper formats. Yes, I know, "Eric, can we draft in 2017 before worrying about the following year first?" is a fair retort, but everything and nothing matters. Also, while it shouldn’t affect hitting numbers, sometimes being a regular DH is a problem for hitters. Encarnacion boasted a .933 OPS as the first baseman in 2016, and a .843 OPS as the DH. His career numbers show a negligible difference, so this is probably nothing.
What interested me more about the Indians game Friday was right-hander Carlos Carrasco, for the second consecutive outing, giving up many hard-hit balls and runs. Carrasco has permitted nine hits and six runs in 3 1/3 innings, and according to Francona, “it just didn’t seem like his pitches were real crisp.” Hopefully this won’t be a problem in two weeks, which is when I’ll adjust his ranking if it continues. It’s not like this is a durable fellow to start with, and it’s not really about the statistics, per se, but how Carrasco is throwing.
Colorado Rockies outfielder David Dahl is having back issues, and let’s just say back issues can be major issues. The Rockies have some depth after their odd Ian Desmond signing, so Dahl will not be pushed. For now, let’s not totally rearrange his ranking but keep an eye on this.
Let’s have some good news! Mitch Haniger is hitting! Pablo Sandoval looks great! And Shelby Miller is missing many bats and not getting lit up! It caught my eye that New York Mets right-hander Jacob deGrom hit 97 mph with his heater Saturday, and his arm remained attached. These are good things. As you might recall, deGrom’s fastball velocity was down last season. I got him in LABR NL, and I’ll discuss my team more at length in another blog entry.