The defending World Series champion Chicago Cubs wisely stayed away from the ludicrous free-agent closer market, trading extraneous outfielder Jorge Soler to the Kansas City Royals for Wade Davis, and each team did the wise thing. The Cubs wanted an established ninth-inning option without guaranteeing four or more seasons and way too much money, and the Royals sold high -- though not as high as last winter, when they should have done it -- and picked up, in theory, an intriguing young outfielder with upside. From a fantasy perspective, each player should be a winner ... but I’m not so sure things will play out this way.

Davis served a pair of disabled list stints in 2016, and though it’s difficult to poke worrisome holes in his statistics the past three seasons, it’s certainly reasonable to worry about any relief pitcher coming off elbow woes and continuing this kind of elite performance. Oh, and by the way, the Cubs are so good they didn’t exactly provide their closers with a crazy amount of save opportunities. It was noted in this space during the summer how few chances right-hander Hector Rondon was receiving, and ultimately a mere three teams registered fewer save opportunities (Angels, Indians, Twins). While that statistic can fluctuate per season, in this case, Davis probably would have been in line to save more games had he not been dealt.

I don’t like to project health, but it’s worth pointing out that Davis is going to be 32 years old next summer and nobody -- that’s nobody -- can pitch this well long-term. Plus, flexor strains can be a precursor to the dreaded Tommy John surgery. Heading into 2016, Davis was my No. 1-ranked closer, and his rate numbers would have landed him in the top 5 had he pitched more; though his walk rate rose, the K rate fell some along with velocity and this all likely occurred because he pitched through pain. This isn’t unusual, but it sure could be a harbinger of doom. Actually, Davis’ K rate has dropped in consecutive seasons, and while the Cubs play incredible defense, they can’t stop home runs. At some point, Davis won’t be able to suppress them to this historic degree. Davis permitted nary a home run in 2014 and 2016.

Whether Davis was going to pitch for the Royals or Cubs I would not project his ERA, WHIP or strikeout rate to fall apart, but I can’t project more than 60 innings or 30 saves at this time. He’s dangerous if one invests too heavily, and the fact that the Cubs still employ Rondon -- who really didn’t do anything wrong to be pushed from the role in the first place -- is a factor, too. The Cubs will win many games. If Davis reports any soreness, he simply won’t pitch. The Cubs won’t need him to. I bet Rondon or Carl Edwards Jr. saves double-digit games as well.

Meanwhile, for fantasy, one of the themes of the winter meetings has been about new closers. The Royals will again turn to right-hander Kelvin Herrera, and there’s not a thing wrong with that. Herrera comes off an excellent season with his best strikeout rate since 2013 and his best WHIP ever (0.96). His fastball velocity was down and he used his four-seam fastball a bit less than normal, but he remained effective and reliable and while that can’t last forever, it can last another year or two. I’d still prefer Davis to Herrera in a vacuum, but I won’t spend a top-100 pick on a closer, so it’s far more likely I’ll get Herrera. And I’m fine with that.

As for Soler, how nice for him that he’ll see regular playing time in Kansas City’s spacious right field, and I want to be optimistic, but I just don’t see what all the fuss is about. The soon-to-be 25-year-old Cuban looked awesome when he was first promoted to the bigs in 2014, hitting .292 with immediate pop. Then pitchers realized contact was a bigger issue than expected, that he couldn’t lay off the off-speed stuff, and he wasn’t so scary. Soler has 682 big-league at-bats, and he’s hit .258 with a .434 slugging percentage; and contrary to popular opinion, he has had chances. Staying healthy has been an issue, too. Frankly, this looks a bit like the Yasiel Puig situation. A guy we hadn’t seen much video on suddenly signed a big deal, looked the part of a superstar ever so briefly and then after a year he doesn’t look so special.

But Soler deserves a chance, and if the Royals give him 500 at-bats in a season he certainly could hit .260 with 30 home runs, and that is worth choosing in the middle to late rounds of most fantasy drafts. I’m just going to stop short of predicting greatness. Hitting 30 home runs isn’t even special anymore. Soler won’t hit for a high average with his K rates. He certainly won’t steal bases. And wait until the Royals see his defense. The Royals needed a young outfielder, and are wise to move a declining relief pitcher with health issues, but I don’t see a top-40 fantasy outfielder here. I see two flawed assets going to teams that can justify the move but should also keep all options open.