There are only so many times I can recommend the likes of Houston Astros outfielder Carlos Gomez and San Francisco Giants right-hander Jeff Samardzija before readers and listeners start to believe I’m either related to these fellows or own their rookie cards. Neither is the case. I think each will excel to a greater degree than the general consensus believes, but does that technically make them sleepers? Well, I don’t know. I find the definition of sleeper to be different for many.
I prefer to use the word value, as in, who is a nice value for their expected average live draft position, and who is not? Perhaps that’s what a sleeper and a bust really is. The players you like enough to elevate a few rounds should qualify. The players you don’t like based on said value might appear to be busts. Hey, I might name someone a bust and still draft them if the value works. Each league, each situation is different.
But let’s get to the point: Here are my hitter sleepers and busts, even if truly defining the terms is a tad problematic. Let’s use the ESPN staff top-300 rankings as a baseline but honestly, I play in extremely deep leagues and I’m sure many of you do as well, so we will have different levels of sleepers in an effort to appease the oft-unappeasable masses.
Catcher:
Big-name sleeper: Well, none really. In an ESPN standard league I’m letting someone else take Buster Posey and Kyle Schwarber. I’m waiting until the final round, where the likes of Derek Norris, Stephen Vogt and Matt Wieters should reside. I will say the same reasons we liked Cleveland’s Yan Gomes a year ago still exist. Let’s just hope his knees comply.
Late-round sleeper: The Dodgers’ Yasmani Grandal was hitting .282 with 14 home runs at the All-Star break. Today he’s likely going unselected in ESPN drafts because he hit .119 the final two months, clearly dealing with an injury that, due to his team contending, couldn’t have been given proper time to heal. The Dodgers kept playing him. Hope you didn’t. The deserving All-Star could easily finish in the top 10 this season, perhaps even in the top five given his power potential.
Bust: All due credit to Kansas City Royals star Salvador Perez, but the workload can’t continue at this rate. It doesn’t matter how strong he is. Over the past three seasons he and Posey have accumulated -- by far -- the most at-bats among catchers, but Posey gets to play first base quite a bit. Perez does not. Sure, he keeps hitting more home runs, but I see that output regressing due to fatigue -- and his brutal walk rate sure doesn’t help. At some point soon a .240 season with 12 home runs is pending, and that’s not special.
Other thoughts: I considered making the Cubs’ Schwarber the bust, but I do think the power is legit and our staff rank is reasonable. He’s just not a catcher (after this season) and while I would let him hit against left-handed pitchers to see if he can improve, I'm not sure that happens. … Keep an eye on the Colorado Rockies. Nick Hundley was the No. 6 catcher on the Player Rater, though he’s getting little credit for it. I think Tom Murphy, the potential backup who could push him aside, is worth a look in NL-only formats, too.
First base:
Big-name sleeper: I'm not sure what else Texas Rangers option Mitch Moreland needs to do, really. Last season was a legit top-15 first baseman fantasy performance with power and batting average and yet, it seems few believe he can do it again. Well, I do! It’s tough to get a bigger name at this position for this spot, too. I’d say Lucas Duda is more reliable than people realize, especially now that he’s capable against same-sided pitching. I have him ranked six rounds better than the ESPN staff.
Late-round sleeper: Nobody is saying Chicago White Sox slugger Adam LaRoche still fits the definition, but he’s looked done before and bounced back. As recently as 2014 he hit .259 with 26 home runs and a solid walk rate. He’s going to play. I don’t think he’s done and in my 20-team league I’ll probably get him many rounds after Seattle’s Adam Lind, who might not be so different.
Bust: The Angels’ Albert Pujols will likely start the season on the disabled list following offseason foot surgery. While draft-day bargains can be found with players in similar situations, I don’t like how this one looks. He’s 36 and can barely move and all he did was hit home runs, which is still important, but perhaps hiding the larger truth of an accelerated downfall. He’s not hitting many line drives and most of his power is to the pull side, which can get dangerous. I think perhaps we’ve all ranked him generously and I’ll be pushing him after the Duda/Mark Teixeira tier. Nobody seems to believe in Teixeira but is he really any less a risk?
Other thoughts: New Twin Byung Ho Park is a total wild card, but based on his raw power, I’m leaning to the positive side and think he might rank ahead of Pujols as well. Neither is going to aid fantasy owners in other categories. … I don’t really trust Miami’s Justin Bour. The team says he’ll face all pitching but that’s not likely to go well. My concern is he’s not all that safe against right-handers, either. Give me Moreland instead. … Milwaukee’s Chris Carter will hit for power. He’s a sleeper. … Joe Mauer will not hit for power. He annually underperforms based on ranking. He’s basically James Loney, and don’t we all make fun of him? … It’s pretty likely that Toronto’s Chris Colabello will never repeat his 2015 season, but in a deep league the dislike might be so profound he becomes sleeper-worthy. I know, that just seems odd.
Second base:
Big-name sleeper: Washington’s Anthony Rendon was awesome in 2014 and not so awesome last season. It’s a bit too simplistic to split the difference, but even if you do precisely that, he’s top-10 at the position, and we know he can do more when healthy. Moving Rendon to third base full time doesn’t hurt fantasy owners for another year, but it could really help his health and production. I’m investing.
Late-round sleeper: Washington’s Trea Turner really just needs a chance to shine and while the organization seems to be trying hard to block him, perhaps because the new manager is more of a veteran-player guy, it won’t matter. Talent wins out. Turner is a future star and he will win the starting shortstop job in March, then hit for average, double-digit power and steal 25-plus bases. He just has to win the job, first.
Bust: Cincinnati Reds surprise Brandon Phillips isn’t finishing third on the Rater at his position again, but that’s obvious. Meanwhile, DJ LeMahieu of the Colorado Rockies is being universally trusted, perhaps as a top-100 guy. He’s become beloved, but this is the same guy who hit .301 last season and just .267 the year prior, and there’s no power here. LeMahieu batted .400 in two months, but .263 or less in three others. That scares me. He also benefited from a friendly BABIP, and a cushy No. 2 lineup spot -- which likely doesn’t happen with Jose Reyes aboard (or Trevor Story either, really). I like LeMahieu. He’s scrappy in a Dustin Pedroia-type way, but he’s more of an opportunistic base stealer than a reliable contributor, and he’s just ordinary if he hits .270 and scores far fewer runs hitting seventh.
Other thoughts: To Dee Gordon I say, I am sorry for underestimating you. But that .387 BABIP still concerns me and I still like drafting power early, including Robinson Cano power. … Aaron Hill will be Milwaukee’s third baseman and while he hasn’t topped 11 home runs since 2012, he does have three years with 26 or more blasts to his credit. In other words, the skill probably remains if he just gets to play regularly. … Brett Lawrie in Chicago seems like a nice fit, as long as fantasy owners stop asking for stolen bases. … Reds speedster Jose Peraza could be special, assuming he gets the chance. A mere seven players stole more than 30 bases last season, two of them infielders. Peraza is more than capable of doing this.
Shortstop:
Big-name sleeper: A year ago everyone seemed to love Chicago Cubs prospect Addison Russell but as so often happens, once the shiny minor league stats are forgotten because there are big league ones, people run away. Today, 475 at-bats later and way too many of them in the No. 9 lineup spot, the fantasy world wants to move on. I can’t. He’s 22! Young players make adjustments and if Russell can do this with contact rate and, oddly enough, against left-handed pitching (he hits right-handed) then we’ve got really nice statistical upside. Don’t be stunned when Russell hits .260 with 20 blasts out of the No. 6 lineup spot.
Late-round sleeper: New Brewer Jonathan Villar has stolen 42 big league bases in 56 attempts over 658 plate appearances. That’s roughly a full season of playing time and now he might get a full season in Milwaukee. One reason I pass on Miami’s Gordon, other than because I want power early, is because I feel I can find cheap speed late. Villar fits the description.
Bust: Alcides Escobar has a World Series ring and I don’t, and this isn’t a personal attack, but everyone except Kansas City Royals manager Ned Yost knows he shouldn’t be leading off. When that change is made, it will remove remaining fantasy value. Escobar scored 76 runs last season. He doesn’t get on base and doesn’t steal so many bases anymore, and if the Royals simply had a better option – outfielder Jarrod Dyson (sleeper!) could be that guy – it would change everything.
Other thoughts: Jimmy Rollins with the White Sox really makes perfect sense, and I can see one final double-double season for him, even if he hits .240. Nobody will be expecting much from Rollins, which is awesome. … The reason Jose Reyes wasn’t my bust pick is because even if a suspension is coming for off-field indiscretions, he runs enough and will hit high in the order and half the time at Coors Field. … I’m not worried about Troy Tulowitzki, because his numbers in 130 games are good enough and it means I can fill-in with another middle infielder. … Nice sleeper possibilities abound for Alexei Ramirez, now in San Diego and a contender to hit high in the lineup. He topped Alcides Escobar on last year’s Rater, but look at the massive difference in where they will end up being selected.
Third base:
Big-name sleeper: The next guy on the list is clearly the bigger name, but Danny Valencia did nice work last season and, despite his journeyman status, it doesn’t appear to be fluky. Everything looks positive here, from the hard-hit rate to his work against right-handed pitching to his walk rate at least becoming somewhat respectable. Valencia was nearly as good as Evan Longoria, in a lot fewer games, and he’ll cost a lot less.
Late-round sleeper: He’s certainly not svelte -- the online pictures inspired me to go outside and run five miles yesterday -- and I wonder how much weight he really lost this offseason. But Boston’s Pablo Sandoval fits every criteria of sleeper, because prior to 2015, he’d always found a way to hit and he’s either a name you can get in the late rounds or off free agency. Conditioning seems the likely reason he struggled at the plate last season and that has to improve, and he has to resume switch-hitting. From 2012-14 Panda hit .280 and averaged 14 home runs and those are reasonable expectations.
Bust: Third base didn’t present many opportunities for top-150 names as sleepers or busts, to be honest. I thought about Todd Frazier for a minute: bad second half, switching leagues, no guarantee to run long-term. Perhaps he’s being drafted too generously, but he shouldn’t turn into Chase Headley, either. Matt Duffy of the Giants -- there’s an Astros version, too, so be careful in online auctions especially -- seems too obvious. Nobody seems to want Atlanta’s Hector Olivera, but if he were a top-200 guy he’d be my bust. So we’ll go with Pittsburgh’s Jung Ho Kang, though he’s not that bad a gamble in the late rounds at your middle infield spot. Just be prepared for missed games early on, as his knee was memorably shredded on a wild slide in mid-September, and an elevated BABIP likely turns him into more of a .260 hitter, though with double-digit power. He did hit .310 in the second half last season, but with a .362 BABIP. This isn’t a patient hitter or a fast runner.
Other thoughts: I like the Rangers’ Adrian Beltre a bit more than most, but only a round better than the ESPN rankings. … I now believe Justin Turner is appropriately ranked in the middle rounds. He’s not a 600-PA guy, but if he hits for power and average in two-thirds of a season, that works, too. … Josh Harrison was my bust pick a year ago, and that anointment proved prophetic. Just don’t look for a big bounceback this season. … As I noted Monday, deep-leaguers shouldn’t be scared of Cleveland’s Juan Uribe. … Evan Longoria gets much grief in the fantasy world, but in the tenth round he’s fine.
Outfield:
Big-name sleeper: Well, I’ve got myriad names for you here, starting with Houston’s Gomez and continuing with Yasiel Puig, Christian Yelich, Hunter Pence, Adam Jones, Jacoby Ellsbury and Boston’s Hanley Ramirez. Each is undervalued, but also probably going in the first 10 rounds. However, the biggest discrepancy I see between my ranks and those of the ESPN staff is Colorado’s Gerardo Parra, somehow missing from their top-300. He’s in my 14th round. What do I see? Well, he hit .291 with 14 home runs and 14 steals for the Orioles and Brewers last season and now he’s with the Rockies. Coors Field, ba-by! I’m not saying Parra is an awesome player, but he doesn’t have to be in order to crack the top-50 outfielders. Last season he was No. 30 on the Rater!
Late-round sleeper: Four players hit 20 or more home runs and stole 20 or more bases last season, and none will come cheap this year. In fact, Paul Goldschmidt and Manny Machado should go in round one, A.J. Pollock might do so as well and Ryan Braun is a strong fourth-rounder. Players that can hit for that kind of power and steal bases are valuable, and Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Steven Souza Jr. can do this, though sans helpful batting average.
Bust: I’m probably avoiding, based on cost, Yoenis Cespedes, Jason Heyward, Matt Kemp and unfortunately the injured Michael Brantley. It also seems unlikely the non-contending Rockies will retain the services of Carlos Gonzalez all season. Yes, CarGo was incredible after the All-Star break, when he hit 27 of his 40 home runs -- a Headley-like run, if you will -- but this has not been a durable player and he wouldn’t be nearly the same out of Coors Field, as his extreme splits show.
Other thoughts: I’m fine with Ben Revere, but it seems like there are quite a few similar options for stolen bases lurking as sleepers, like Ender Inciarte, Denard Span and Odubel Herrera. They all run. … Last season, Philadelphia acquired Herrera through the Rule 5 draft, and this year they chose Tyler Goeddel, a toolsy, power-speed combo guy who could play left field regularly. … Michael Conforto is going to hit 20 home runs. Matt Holliday is going to hit 20 home runs. Marcell Ozuna is going to hit 20 home runs. I’m guessing each is a decent sleeper based on current ADP and expectations. … I won’t select Billy Hamilton where I would need to in order to get him. He can’t hit. Lots of guys can run. I half-expect Peraza to play center field regularly. … Late-round picks few are thinking about: Hyun Soo Kim, Rajai Davis, Leonys Martin and Boston's Jackie Bradley Jr. and Rusney Castillo.
On Wednesday, we'll examine the pitching sleepers and busts, though in considerably fewer words!