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Biggest debates from fantasy baseball summit

We laughed and cried, cajoled and relented, occasionally raised some voices but then shook hands … and that was simply when discussing Chicago Cubs middle infielder Addison Russell. The ESPN fantasy baseball summit meetings took place the final week of January, with football in the rearview mirror and snow on the ground outdoors, but it was warm inside for our annual two-day event in which we delved into the upcoming bat and ball season. Yes, we examined, debated and ranked a whole lot of players, but also investigated injuries, statistics both positive and not and larger trends and themes. Hey, I was just happy to talk baseball. Pitchers and catchers report to spring training really soon!

These were good days and we do this not only to provide valuable information to our loyal ESPN fantasy readers, listeners (the summit was discussed on the Fantasy Focus #06010MLB podcast) and watchers on Periscope and Facebook, but also for our purposes. I want and need to learn, too. Flood me with data and details and convince me I’m simply missing something about a player … or perhaps I’ll persuade you as well. The exchange of ideas and opinions is hardly a bad thing in this setting, because our united goal is clear: We’re preparing the collective you for the 2016 fantasy baseball season -- and ourselves as well.

I’ll certainly be getting into some or all of these topics more in-depth in future KaraBlog entries, but for now let’s start off with thoughts on the most divisive players, situations or overall themes that stood out to me from the energizing summit.

Oh, those polarizing Chicago Cubs: Not only is this franchise expected to legitimately contend for a World Series, but fantasy owners are lining up for their players. Well, for most of them. There’s catcher-eligible Kyle Schwarber being regarded by some as the best fantasy backstop in the game, while others -- like me -- are more tepid, concerned about playing time even in the outfield and a platoon situation. There’s middle infielder Addison Russell coming off his perhaps misconstrued age-21 campaign, but blessed with talented upside that would be statistically blunted if he keeps hitting ninth, after the pitchers. There’s awesome right-hander Jake Arrieta fighting for position at fantasy’s deepest, most proven position -- do it again, fella! -- and third baseman Kris Bryant hanging with the big boys despite worrisome strikeout rates and no guarantee of stolen bases. And we didn't even mention the new center fielder. The Cubs are indeed fascinating.

Picking and choosing young players to trust: Russell’s stock sure seemed unusually depressed not only for potential lineup construction reasons, but because he hit .242 his rookie season, while the mass love for Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager could barely be contained. I’m just using them as examples, as I think both young players will be terrific, but how would we be viewing Russell if, like Seager, he had barely played in the big leagues?

Fantasy owners are awfully reactive to numbers they can clearly see and tend to be way too optimistic about numbers they cannot, or numbers that do not exist. Seager hasn’t struggled yet and it will be shown in his aggressive average live draft position, perhaps as fantasy’s No. 2 shortstop. Russell could simply be forgotten. Be open-minded and remember who the highly regarded prospects were at this time last year. Some, like top overall picks Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, might just need more time.

When upside trumps track record: Our debate about Minnesota Twins designated hitter import Byung Ho Park was similarly fascinating. I think it’s generally a poor idea to lump debuting big league bound players from foreign countries as similar based on where they come from. Yasiel Puig and Yoenis Cespedes are very different, for example. Just like Alex Guerrero and Hector Olivera aren’t like Puig and Cespedes. Same goes for players from Asia.

Pittsburgh Pirates infielder Jung Ho Kang was a nice 2015 surprise, but Park, laden with power upside that may or may not translate over here, is hardly a lock for anything. He’ll need to adjust. Everyone does. Still, there was talk of making Park a top-10 first baseman, over the likes of proven New York options Lucas Duda and Mark Teixeira, just for example. Yes, I acknowledge Duda and Teixeira are bereft of upside, but I find it tough to take chances on a newcomer we don’t know in the first 10 or so rounds when, frankly, I don’t need to. Round 20 is way different. Park could bash 35 homers or struggle to get to 15. Neither scenario would surprise.

Short at shortstop: Catcher is obviously a weak fantasy position, and things seem to be spiraling downhill annually in that regard, but remember that in ESPN standard formats, there remains only one active catcher spot. You, me and our mailmen likely play in deeper formats in which multiple starting backstops are needed, but for leagues on this site, my theory is that the likes of Derek Norris, Wilson Ramos or Yan Gomes will make for acceptable last-round choices while others over-draft Buster Posey and Schwarber and waste mid-round selections on the position. However, the real story isn’t catcher, but rather shortstop.

It’s ugly. With a capital U, really. It might not be so bad for long, with so much young talent on the way -- check the 2015 MLB draft! -- but for this season, let’s just say the comparison of your middle infield position can be drawn with fantasy football and the flex spot: In football there weren’t enough running backs to create reasonable depth, so wide receivers and even tight ends showed up in many flex spots. In baseball, a modestly strong and deep group of second basemen will likely comprise true middle infield spots. There’s nothing wrong with that and we can all prepare accordingly, but it hardly means selecting an average shortstop five rounds earlier because you're worried about position scarcity. Please don't make decisions based on this. Yes, it’s basically Houston Astros stud Carlos Correa, then a second tier of relative question marks led by Troy Tulowitzki, Xander Bogaerts, Francisco Lindor and Seager, and then one waits. Erick Aybar never looked so, well, decent. But you don't take Aybar in Round 15.

Closers who do not (initially) close: Most fantasy owners select relief pitchers for the saves and that’s pretty much it, but that’s ignoring some of the most valuable options who do not provide help in that ridiculously misinterpreted category. Some relievers aid in strikeouts, ERA and WHIP, and when added with bloated save totals we can debate whether that makes Kenley Jansen a sixth-rounder or not all day. (I say it does not.) But there was excellent dialogue in the group about valuing the top statistical setup men such as New York Yankees Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller -- and there are many more -- versus the typical one-category relievers like Los Angeles Angels right-hander Huston Street, who can also hurt in several stats.

The ESPN Player Rater tells one story, of course, and rarely is it the full one, but let’s just say with so many closer battles either undecided (such as Toronto, Miami, the myriad bad NL teams) or simply unacceptable (Fernando Rodney in San Diego, really?), it’s quite clear taking the middle-relief route for strikeout and ERA upside is worth it. Finally, the initial ESPN reliever ranks figure to relay this fact, even if owners don’t follow through on ADP. At least Betances should be held in significantly higher regard than at this time a year ago, when he also wasn’t expected to get saves. I’ll delve into this topic more in future blog entries and we’ll examine other middle relievers who are more valuable than they appear. Covet skills over roles, and often the latter will take care of itself.