Minnesota Vikings quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is likely lost for the season with a shredded knee suffered in Tuesday’s practice and it’s terrible and it’s awful and the team is done … and well, sorry, I just don’t believe the final part. Oh sure, it’s not good news. I suppose some expected Bridgewater to make a significant jump in productivity for an eventual playoff team but I’ve been viewing him just a bit different. I’ve been calling him the Alex Smith of the NFC, and that means something, so in terms of how fantasy value shifts here, well, I don’t see much changing.
Yep, it’s not the popular stance but let’s throw some facts out there. Bridgewater was on my "do not draft" list because many a fantasy owner was expecting him to take a large step statistically and I simply didn’t agree. The Vikings have a Hall of Fame running back who gets fed the ball a ton, and that’s not changing. They play excellent defense, and that’s not changing. Bridgewater’s main, job, like Smith of the Kansas City Chiefs, was to lead the team and avoid giving the football away. People say Bridgewater tossed a mere 14 touchdown passes last season over a full 16 games because he had no receiving threats. Nope. That was the team’s offensive plan.
Bridgewater, who finished 23rd among quarterbacks in standard scoring a season ago, was not among my top 25 quarterbacks when the unfortunate injury struck. By the way, the lone Viking being selected in the first 10 rounds of ESPN average live drafts is running back Adrian Peterson. He remains my top running back off the board because I don’t see the Vikings altering anything. Instead of Bridgewater handing the football to him, it will be veteran Shaun Hill, and he has led teams before. He’ll figure out quickly how to do it properly. Bridgewater was not fantasy relevant for most formats, nor were his receivers. Hill is not fantasy relevant. Little changes.
I know some of this sounds crude and insensitive but teams real and fantasy overcome injuries every season. The Carolina Panthers lost their top wide receiver last August, also to a non-contact knee injury, and the immediate reaction in the real world was similar, like utter despair. Who will catch the football now? Well, someone did because the Panthers made the Super Bowl. The Green Bay Packers still won 10 games sans Jordy Nelson. Quarterback isn’t quite the same, but this isn’t the Packers losing Aaron Rodgers, either. The Vikings were last in the NFL in pass attempts because they aren’t a passing team. Bridgewater’s role was pretty clear, so if you were relying on Stefon Diggs or rookie Laquon Treadwell, who isn’t even starting, that was a mistake in the first place.
If you’ve already selected Bridgewater in your draft, let’s assume it’s a deeper format. In a standard league, replacing him shouldn’t be too difficult. Again, we’re talking about statistics here, not his ability to lead or how much his teammates love him. Smith is a suitable replacement. Same with Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Tannehill and Matt Ryan. In fact, I originally ranked each better than Bridgewater. Hill won’t be expected to do much statistically, and the receiver situation wasn’t upgraded all that much, so he’s outside my top 30 at the position.
Ultimately, for most people, this is about Peterson. He’s 31 years old and perhaps some will never agree to him being the top running back off the draft board for that reason. Fair enough, I suppose, but I’m not budging. You say the Vikings will see many eight-man fronts to deal with Peterson and I say bring it on, he has seen it before. Like, he sees it all the time. Remember back in 2012 when Peterson was coming off a torn ACL and MCL and Christian Ponder was the QB? Peterson ran for more than 2,000 yards. Ponder threw for 2,935 yards and 18 scores. Last year Bridgewater threw for 3,231 yards and 14 scores. Peterson led the NFL in rushing. Hill isn’t Bridgewater, but for what the Vikings intend to do, he’s competent.